OK, let’s do this one last time. Week 17 was bad enough with speculation about the teams resting players. We got production out of most of our stars, though. Some a bit more than others. But there are still some roster decisions to make. If you’re still fighting in Week 18, I’ve got three takeaways from the wild week of action to help you set your lineups.

Quarterback: Dak Prescott, Cowboys

Week 17 Results: (Projected) 17.8, (Actual) 14.4

My opponent in Week 17 had Dak Prescott. I was encouraged about my chances through the first half as Dak threw two picks by the half, and Dallas’ only score was on the ground. Prescott still managed to stay in the Top 16, but his trend of interceptions is a concern.

Prescott has turned the ball over in six consecutive games. Four of those contests have resulted in multiple interceptions. Some might think Dak has lost a step or will be a liability for their fantasy squad. However, at least for this week, Prescott won’t let you down.

Advice for Week 18:

Prescott is still a top-12 quarterback for Week 18. Their personnel issues may be an issue for them in the playoffs, but the Cowboys offense shouldn’t have an issue against Washington on Sunday.

I can see why the Cowboys have been after Odell Beckham, signed T.Y. Hilton, and there have even been rumors of a Terrell Owens return. They need more options. Actually, they need better options. It’s all fun and games when we invest in concentrated offenses. CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz account for 45.1% of Prescott’s looks. But they’re also the ones Dak looks to in critical situations.

Dak’s favorite targets can’t always be wide open, so their quality varies from down to down. His trust in his top receivers can (and has) been his downfall, as they’ve been on the other end of all but one of Prescott’s picks. But overall, he’s been one of the more accurate quarterbacks in the league.

Since his Week 7 return, Prescott is fifth in completion percentage over expected. He’s sixth in on-target rate and tenth in adjusted completion percentage per PFF. The tough part for him is only two of his top targets are above a 50.0% contested catch rate (Lamb and Schultz). His lacking personnel may be an issue in the playoffs, but he’s in a good spot for Week 18.

It’s now public knowledge that the Commanders are out of the playoffs. We’ll see about their motivation in Week 18, but they were 21st in dropback EPA allowed against the Browns. Washington was missing two of their starting defensive players on Sunday, but they were 25th over the month before. With Tony Pollard (hopefully) returning from injury and Ezekiel Elliot not having the burst he once had, the offense may still rest on Dak’s shoulders.

Running Back: DAndre Swift, Lions

Week 17 Results: (Projected) 12.9, (Actual) 27.7

I can understand Detroit’s passing game. Amon-Ra St. Brown mans the slot and is a reliable week-to-week option. If you’re looking for ceiling, D.J. Chark and (now) Jameson Williams are becoming home run swings. Their roles make sense, but I can never peg the Lions’ backfield.

I get excited whenever I see DAndre Swift lighting up the boxscore. His 27.7 PPR points on Sunday are a season-high, and it was his time in the Top 12 since Week 13. Swift’s sporadic peak may have fantasy managers assuming he’s a set-and-forget player. But I’ve got my doubts.

Advice for Week 18:

Swift is a mid-range RB2 for Week 18. His ceiling would put him in the Top 12, but his workload hasn’t changed, leaving his floor in doubt for Sunday.

Jamaal Williams’ success was my first clue. Despite Swift finding the box twice, Williams still found his way into the Top 10 as the RB6. The veteran rusher isn’t typically a passer-catching option, so his opportunity had to have been significant. And, I was right after a closer look at their situational usage.

Credit to Swift for capitalizing on his 15 touches, but Williams led the way with 60.5% of the work. Plus, he handled most of the two-minute and short-yard totes, further insulating his role. Swift’s touch count may not have changed, but there’s still a chance for him to overcome his lowered floor.

Pass-catching running backs have been successful against the Packers. Cam Akers had 35 yards on three targets, and Tennessee’s backfield totaled 59 yards and a score back in Week 11. Swift had a similar outing in the Lions’ early matchup against Green Bay (4-40-0), making him a mid-range RB2 for Week 18.

Wide Receiver: Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers

Week 17 Results: (Projected) 13.5, (Actual) 26.7

I agree that Brandon Aiyuk is a true test of “do you know ball?”. Fantasy is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately game, and Aiyuk’s big-yardage games or touchdowns come infrequently enough for us to shove him into the infinite “WR2” tier. He’s “good” or “fine” are typical descriptors, but his on-field metrics say otherwise.

Aiyuk’s 1.89 YPRR on the season ranks ahead of Deebo Samuel’s (1.74) at 22nd among all WRs. His 2.8 average yards of separation matches Stefon Diggs’ and D.J. Moore’s. I’m not calling Aiyuk elite, but his on-field productivity doesn’t always line up with his ability. Except for last week.

The 49ers had to work overtime to keep Jarrett Stidham at bay (get it? Because San Francisco geographically sits…nevermind.). While Aiyuk did all of his damage during regulation play, he found himself in the Top 12 for the first time since Week 8. His team still needs to win out (and an Eagles loss) to get a first-round bye, but I’m skeptical about a repeat performance like what we just saw.

Advice for Week 18:

Aiyuk is still a mid to low-end WR2 in Week 18. Last week’s competitive environment boosted his target floor. He’s also not running the same routes as he did before Samuel’s injury, increasing his week-to-week volatility.

Fantasy managers would likely call George Kittle the team’s WR1 with Samuel off the field. He’s had at least one touchdown per game with Brock Purdy under center and has been a one-man wrecking crew the last few weeks. But Aiyuk has steadily grown into his role as the team’s primary receiver.

We shouldn’t expect another 12-target outing, but an 8-target floor on a team ranked 19th in neutral passing rate on early downs is a solid start. However, the types of routes he’s running aren’t the same as when Samuel was active.

Aiyuk’s slot rate has been on a downward trend since Samuel’s injury. From Weeks 10-13, Aiyuk ran 25.1% of his routes from the interior and was second in targets. But over the last three weeks, Ray-Ray McCloud and Jauan Jennings have taken the lay-up looks from Purdy. Aiyuk didn’t even run a slot from the inside against the Raiders. But it’s not all doom and gloom for the third-year receiver.

Before last week, Aiyuk still co-led the team in targets (11) and now comfortably sits ahead of Kittle at 23. He also has a 37.5% red-zone share. I’m not expecting Arizona to put up a similar fight in Week 18. However, given his baseline opportunity, Aiyuk should still be a mid to low-end top-24 receiver for the season finale.