We got a mini-break because of the Thanksgiving slate, but it’s crunch time for many teams. The fantasy playoffs are a few weeks away, and every win counts. We’ve got plenty of roster decisions to make, and we’ll be hanging on to every bit of news as it comes. To help sort through the noise, I’ve three of my biggest lessons learned from Week 12 and how to apply them for the coming weeks.

Quarterback: Mike White, Jets

Week 11 Results: (Projected) 12.2, (Actual) 24.8

The Mike White hype continues. It’s a fun story with a huge payoff for White, as the Jets are on a payoff trajectory. Think of him as Taylor Heinicke from the 2020 season. He can operate the offense within its design and let his playmakers do the rest. And after Sunday, it looks like it’s his job to lose.

Advice Moving Forward:

White is a matchup-based starter through the fantasy playoffs. He has positive matchups on the schedule and a high-end defense to cover up any deficiencies.

White merely winning a game against Chicago wasn’t the only reason Jets’ fans were chanting his name It’s how productive he was in the victory. I don’t count style points, but any statistical comparison between the now-starter and his predecessor leans in White’s favor.

The pass rate over expected (PROE) comparison indicates the offense didn’t significantly shift after the quarterback change. But the difference in completion percentage over expected (CPOE) highlights White’s comfort level. He leveraged shorter throws (a 2.1 air yard per attempt lower than Wilson) to keep the offense moving. But the time-to-throw- value caught my eye.

To be fair, Chicago pressured White on just three dropbacks. So, we’re dealing with a minuscule sample. But a 1.2-second difference to throw is a lifetime for quarterbacks in the pocket. Wilson led the league in interceptions under duress because of his inability to operate with the defense bearing down on him. However, we’ve got nearly half a season of games for Wilson to see the good and the bad.

The reasonable argument against White is who he faced on Sunday. The Bears were toothless after trading away Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn. Garrett Wilson ran by an injured Eddie Jackson for his second touchdown, and Chicago also lost their top corner during the game. It couldn’t have been easier for White. But Wilson had a similar opportunity earlier in the year.

Wilson faced the Dolphins in Week 5 without Xavien Howard or Tua Tagovailoa. Plus, Teddy Bridgewater was injured in the first quarter, forcing seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson onto the field. And yet, White was still more accurate, more efficient, and had a faster time to throw under pressure. So, even in an almost identical situation, we’ve seen more from the backup.

White’s short, quick-passing skillset generates more fantasy points in favorable matchups. We saw as much in his debut against Cincinnati last season. The Vikings are, at best, a neutral defensive test for White and the Jets’ offense. But with games against Detroit and Jacksonville in the playoffs, White is a strong streaming candidate to close out the season.

Running Back: James Conner, Cardinals

Week 11 Results: (Projected) 15.8, (Actual) 21.0

I don’t understand the Cardinals. I don’t get their team-building philosophy or their plan for the future. James Conner is 27 years old, yet to play a full season in his career, and inefficient with his touches (unless it’s at the goal line). Releasing Eno Benjamin was a head-scratching move, but for fantasy purposes, it’s kept Conner in the top-12 conversation.

Advice Moving Forward

Conner is a fringe top-12 running back based on usage. The offense may struggle around him through the playoffs, but no other running back has challenged him for touches.

I didn’t expect a 50/50 split between Conner and rookie Keaontay Ingram. But some level of involvement from Ingram made sense. Let’s toss aside Conner’s health record before this season and look at 2022. He’s already missed three games with a rib injury, and Ingram showcased his ability as a rusher and receiver in Week 7. Arizona has a potential out on Conner’s contract after this year. Developing young talent makes sense on a team without any playoff hopes, but we’ve seen the exact opposite for Conner.

With so many 100% values, I didn’t need to add how much the other running backs have contributed. But the disparity made me laugh. It’s Conner and nobody else. The boxscore will tell you Ingram had five carries against the 49ers in Week 11, but they came in the fourth quarter with Trace McSorley coming in for an injured Colt McCoy. Otherwise, Conner has dominated the workload on the ground and through the air. The only sliver of hope for the rookie is the finality of the team’s outlook.

Arizona has a 1.0% chance of making the playoffs. Without a series of miracles, they must look to 2023 and beyond. Even if Conner is in their short-term plans, Ingram should get more run with less on the line for the team. Regardless, Conner should remain in the top-12 conversation with such a large share of the backfield touches.

Wide Receiver: Isaiah McKenzie, Bills

Week 11 Results: (Projected) 6.2, (Actual) 22.3

I looked at multiple ways to stack Josh Allen for the Thanksgiving slate. Dawson Knox and Gabriel Davis were my secondary pieces, and I even threw both running backs into my pool. So, of course, Isaiah McKenzie has his biggest game of the season. I’m still learning DFS theory, so a low-rostered McKenzie should have been an option. But his prior usage kept him from consideration.

Advice Moving Forward:

McKenzie is still, at best, a flex play. He had outlier usage in Week 12 but didn’t separate in terms of projectable targets.

Tertiary players are hard to pin down in projections. Everything from their snaps to targets can flip on a dime. McKenzie’s Week 12 was no different. See if you can spot his best fantasy performance of the year.

OK, I know. We all watched the game most of us, myself included, had McKenzie on our bench. But his peripherals highlight my point. Despite the results, it wasn't easy to see this coming. His target share and targets per route run were steady for a full month before Thanksgiving. Plus, it’s difficult to project his usage moving forward based on the looks he earned on Thursday.

McKenzie had the highest slot rate of any receiver, as expected. But was the third option in the short area of the field behind Diggs and James Cook. Diggs and Gabriel had the same amount of third-down looks. And, of course, Diggs led the team in red-zone targets.

Allen’s elbow may be an issue, but Buffalo still had a +4.0% pass rate over expected. So, the volume will be there for McKenzie. But his every-week role is still uncertain. I wouldn’t “chase points” as Buffalo prepares to face the Patriots, but McKenzie is a solid flex option moving forward.