I was excited after Sunday night. It was a fun day of football, even though I would’ve never guessed how the Dolphins-Chargers game would go. Regardless, chaos is part of the NFL. But then I watched Monday Night Football and suddenly didn’t have as much fun. The chaos wasn’t entertaining. But the playoffs are here, and we’ve got roster decisions to make. With championships on the line, here are my three lessons to help you advance to the next round.

Quarterback: Brock Purdy, 49ers

Week 14 Results: (Projected) 12.5, (Actual) 21.7

I expected a decent performance from Brock Purdy. I didn’t have any data to support the vibes, so I just strolled down Narrative Street. Kyle Shanahan’s offense had been able to prop up backup quarterbacks in the past. C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens are the easiest examples, and Purdy was no different. But the concerns about San Francisco’s offense were valid.

As a head coach, Todd Bowles may not be a long-term fit for the Buccaneers. But he’s still an excellent defensive planner. We watched Tampa dismantle an inexperienced Jalen Hurts in the playoffs last year. So I expected Purdy to be under fire constantly. He was, but how he dealt with the pressure was noteworthy.

Advice Moving Forward:

Purdy is a top streaming candidate through the fantasy playoffs. His ability to deal with pressure will keep the offense moving efficiently, and the matchups provide him with a safe floor.

The Buccaneers pressured Purdy on 40.9% of his dropbacks. It was the sixth-highest rate on Sunday. However, the seventh-round pick didn’t buckle under the pass rush like some expected. He excelled.

I mentally bookmarked Purdy’s stats against pressure after his touchdown throw to Christian McCaffrey. Tampa brought six rushers, and Purdy could still place the ball where only McCaffrey could get it. He had a perfect passer rating of 158.3 under duress. He’s the only quarterback with the highest possible rating this season when pressured at a rate above the single-game average (34.8%). But there is one concern.

The 49ers’ offense typically revolves around middle-of-the-field throws to give the receivers the ability to create. Purdy found success on the outside. With Deebo Samuel out for the short term, Purdy will need to get comfortable in this area to keep his pass-catchers moving. But he’s got at least one more week to learn.

The 49ers travel to Seattle for Thursday Night Football. They haven’t seen each other since Week 2, but Seattle’s defense is about where it was earlier in the season. The Seahawks are giving up 407.7 total yards of offense since their bye. With most of his skill players still intact, Purdy is a strong streaming option for the fantasy playoffs.

Running Back: Cam Akers, Rams

Week 14 Results: (Projected) 7.9, (Actual) 9.3

Baker Mayfield’s game-winning drive has, and should, hold much of the conversation stemming from the Thursday night game. Mayfield reinvigorated his career on a single series. But fantasy managers aren’t focused on the Rams’ passing game anymore. Cooper Kuypp has been on IR for weeks, and Allen Robinson is in the same boat. We’re not trusting Tutu Atwell or Van Jefferson on our playoff rosters unless we’re in the deepest of leagues. But the running game had been productive, and the hope was Cam Akers would be able to return to the fantasy spotlight after an outburst in Week 13.

Advice Moving Forward:

Akers is an RB3 through the playoffs. His situational usage limits his ceiling, and the upcoming matchups aren’t favorable for him or the Rams.

Don’t worry. I got caught by the same workload metrics. In the second game after Darrell Henderson’s release, Akers handled 85.7% of the team’s running back touches. But his work wasn’t what caught the eye of fantasy managers. It was the result. He wound up in the end zone twice for the first time in 2022. So, of course, he became everyone’s favorite waiver wire target. However, we were missing some context to his productive Week 13 outing.

As we just saw on Sunday, Seattle is a positive matchup for opposing offenses. They’ve allowed the third-most yards per game over the last three weeks. So, it stands to reason Akers would outperform expectations. But given his team situation, he’d underperform in a different setting.

The Rams’ offensive line ranks dead last in adjusted line yards and 31^st in yards before contact per attempt. Essentially, Los Angeles (their line or running backs) couldn’t gain yards unless the defense gave them. So, we get two touchdowns against a “tackling-optional” defense like Seattle. It was a different story against the Raiders, who are seventh in rushing EPA allowed. Plus, the other running backs got involved.

Akers only has three targets, and we’ve seen Malcolm Brown and Kyren Williams mix in on third downs and in the two-minute drill. Akers needs the volume, given the team’s inefficiency (29^th in yards per drive). However, they face Green Bay coming off a bye and Denver in the fantasy championship. Unless you’re limping into the playoffs with injured running backs, Akers is an emergency-only option to close out the season.

Wide Receiver: Mike Evans, Buccaneers

Week 14 Results: (Projected) 13.5, (Actual) 8.4

We’ve seen this play happen almost every week. Tom Brady looks for Mike Evans on a deep target, Brady throws it, and one of two things happens. Evans drops it, or a penalty negates the play. A tale as old as time. Well, at least it feels that way. The Brady-Evans connection of the past couple of seasons feels disconnected. Worse, there’s little else to rely on for fantasy production. After diving into Evans’s peripherals, he’s a tough player to roster during the playoffs.

Advice Moving Forward:

Mike Evans is a mid-range WR2 through the playoffs. He’s fallen well behind Chris Godwin in targets, and the looks he earns are volatile. He’s more “boom-bust” than a consistent option.

We saw a shift in how the Buccaneers deployed Evans when Brady arrived on the scene. His 37.9% slot rate was the highest of his career in 2020. But it’s dropped every year since. It’s 25.9% this season. I could live with Evans moving back to the perimeter, but the types of targets he’s earning aren’t conducive to consistent fantasy value.

Hindsight being 20/20, we should’ve seen this coming. Tampa’s personnel was more diverse even last year. Few other tight ends could run a seam route like Rob Gronkowski. Antonio Brown could beat coverage from the slot or the perimeter. The offense had the luxury of moving Evans into advantageous matchups because they had the personnel to do it. Russell Gage, Julio Jones, and Cade Otton aren’t even close facsimiles. As a result, Evans's aDOT is back on the rise.

The chart I put together helps focus the conversation on his week-to-week usage. His deep targets have exceeded the number of short passes he’s received in four games this year. In short, Evans isn’t getting any layups and relying on the volatility of explosive plays. He’s Gabe Davis in a Buccaneers’ uniform. Except Evans is on a worse offense.

Tampa’s run 19 red-zone plays over the last month, and their 32.9 yards per drive is league-average. Over the same span, Chris Godwin usurped Evans with a 27.4% target share. Evans sits at 15.3%. Matchups against Cincinnati (after losing two more defenders) and Arizona improve his outlook. But his usage lowers his floor during the most critical part of the season.