I’m still trying to process all of Week 15. The Bengals stormed back to win against Tampa. We had multiple overtime games. Oh, I almost forgot there was the largest comeback in league history, too. I’ll have more on a player from that game in a bit, but I had to take a step back after all the action. Congrats to those advancing to the next round of the playoffs, and I’ve got three lessons from last week to help with rosters decisions for Week 16.

Quarterback: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars

Week 15 Results: (Projected) 17.4, (Actual) 26.8

Ahead of their Week 11 bye, I’d categorize Trevor Lawrence’s season as “what I expected.” It wasn’t a monumental leap forward, but the development we thought we’d see under Doug Pederson was there. But it came in spurts.

They waved the Colts 24-0 in Week 2 with a resounding win over the Chargers the following week. But afterward, they went on a five-game losing streak. I thought their season was over with minimal progress to show for it. However, since their break, we’ve seen a brand new Jaguars offense. Lawrence has been on a tear, so I took a closer look at what’s fueled his resurgence and if he’s trustworthy for the playoffs.

Advice Moving Forward:

There should be no hesitation about Lawrence through the rest of the playoffs. He’s a fringe top-12 starter in Weeks 16 and 17.

Lawrence has been a top-5 quarterback in three of his last four games, and his fantasy results have certainly caught our attention. There isn’t a highlight compilation without him in it. But pushing past the boxscore highlights his improvement and comfort level with Pederson in his ear.

Jacksonville’s play-action rate has been relatively similar (24.5% pre-bye to 19.3%) along with their passing rate over expected (0% to 2%). I even checked his deep-ball rate to see if his strikes to Zay Jones were part of the surge. Nope. His 13.2% rate over the last four weeks is nearly identical to what it was the month before the bye (13.8%). So, at a basic structural level, there haven’t been many changes. And it’s a good sign for Lawrence, the young franchise quarterback. But what’s helped Lawrence, the “fantasy” quarterback, is the environment he finds himself in each week.

Game totals featuring the Jaguars haven’t been below 54 since Week 12, with half featuring a one-score point differential. In short, Jacksonville has had to throw to stay ahead of (or catch up to) its opponents. And, given his efficiency and accuracy, the results have been positive! But let’s see if the matchups remain competitive enough for him to boost our lineups.

I have no doubt Thursday night will be a tight match between Lawrence and the Jets as they attempt to get back into the playoff picture. He has top-12 potential there. But a contest against Houston in Week 17 puts Lawrence on the fringe of the top 12 to close out the season.

Running Back: Ken Walker, Seahawks

Week 15 Results: (Projected) 11.2, (Actual) 11.9

Deciding on how to handle injury situations on Sunday likely, well, decided your fantasy matchup. If you bet on Rhamondre Stevenson showing out for his hometown or Tee Higgins’s hamstring holding up, it was the right wager. And for Ken Walker, we had to make the same call.

I hope 11.9 PPR points didn’t sink your playoff hopes if you rostered him against the 49ers. But if you did, and you advanced, there are some positives to his Week 15 results. Because while he didn’t get in the paint, his peripherals indicated more work coming his way.

Advice Moving Forward:

Walker’s potential usage increase in the passing game moves him into top-16 consideration the rest of the way. With Seattle’s matchups, Walker has top-12 upside in both games.

My first fear was Walker would return to a timeshare. It’s not to say Travis Homer warranted a larger workload. But Seattle went from a 33.1% rushing success rate (which was already 29^th in the league) to 9.1% in his absence. Granted, it was one week, but Homer gained 16 yards on one carry and totaled 26 on the day. For the math folks, that’s eight carries for 10 yards. I could (not) do that. Regardless, I thought Pete Carroll would ease him back into the offense, but the rookie was a full go in primetime.

Homer had one carry all game. Meanwhile, Walker looked like himself on the field. The burst, without any setbacks after the game, is a positive sign he’ll be available the rest of the way. But we saw another development which was a point of contention over the offseason. He hit his second-highest target total on the season.

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Walker’s route participation had been creeping up over the six weeks before his injury. His targets per route run have oscillated with game script. However, we’re now seeing a higher floor for Walker than when he first took over the starting role. And with Tyler Lockett out, Walker benefits as a passing option for Geno Smith.

Seattle can still make the playoffs. It’s a long shot, but possible. Regardless, they’ll be in competitive back-and-forths with Kansas City and the Jets to close out the season. With Walker’s commanding rushing share and potential touch increase as a receiver, he fits into the RB2 category with top-12 potential for both weeks.

Wide Receiver: K.J. Osborn, Vikings

Week 15 Results: (Projected) 6.5, (Actual) 31.7

It was the Isaiah McKenzie slate all over again. I should’ve known. From a DFS mindset, I had been looking for a low-rostered option when building lineups. But my focus was on the Indianapolis side of the equation. The Vikings’ defense was one to target, and Matt Ryan double stacks sounded like such a great idea then. I couldn’t have been more wrong about the game.

With the team trading for T.J. Hockenson, any option behind Justin Jefferson would be volatile at best. K.J. Osborn had seemed like just another option in the passing game. But after his stunning performance on Saturday, I needed to find out if he was for real or not.

Advice Moving Forward:

Osborn may be edging out Thielen for looks, but Osborn (like the other ancillary options) has benefitted from increased volume from Cousins. At best, he’s a mid-range WR3 or high-upside flex in less competitive matchups for Minnesota in Week 16.

It was fair to assume Adam Thielen was still the second option behind Jefferson for most of the year. Despite his touchdown regression, the 32-year-old vet had nearly the same targets through Week 6 as in 2021 (45 vs. 41). Osborn was still the third fiddle until his usage picked up after Week 12.

The Vikings came out of their bye using 11 personnel (3 WRs) on 85.3% of Cousins’ dropbacks. Osborn was getting in his cardio every week but with minimal targets. Coincidentally, in Week 12, when he matched a season-low in looks (2), Minnesota used three-receiver sets on 65.8% to give Cousins more protection against the Patriots. But things have changed since then.

Their 11-personnel rate has reverted to 85.4%, which meant more snaps for Osborn. But, more importantly, Thielen’s target utilization has declined each week. A growing workload for a receiver who can create on his own (highest YAC per reception of the receivers in the last three weeks), but let’s keep his team situation in context.

Cousins attempted 54 passes in the greatest comeback of NFL history. The game environment buoyed much of his opportunity, and Thielen is still kicking around to snag a red-zone target or two each week. Plus, the Giants’ tendency to blitz may push the Vikings back into heavier personnel. Unless we get news Osborn has supplanted Thielen, Osborn remains a flex-worthy option for the playoffs.