Quarterback
Mac Jones, NE (vs TB)
Jones is likely going to have to throw a lot to keep up with Tom Brady, and against a depleted Bucs secondary. Not to mention that Josh McDaniels is smart enough to not waste too many plays running at a brick wall Bucs run defense. Tampa has already allowed nine passing touchdowns, and every quarterback to face them this year has thrown for at least 300 yards and two scores - including Matt Ryan.
Baker Mayfield, CLE (at MIN)
Mayfield is heading to Minnesota to face a red hot Kirk Cousins. The Vikings defense has been improving, but they are still allowing quarterbacks to complete over 75% of their passes and average over 13 yards per completion, while giving up six passing scores despite only seeing 95 pass attempts against them. Mayfield should also see things opened up by Odell Beckham’s strong return to the lineup.
Taylor Heinicke, WAS (at ATL)
Heinicke was aided by garbage time stats against a breakout Buffalo Bills offense last week. This week, he’ll get the garbage Atlanta Falcons defense that has allowed eight passing scores even though Daniel Jones didn’t throw one last week because he didn’t have any healthy starting wide receivers. Heinicke probably won’t get Curtis Samuel back this week, but he still has Terry McLaurin and that should be enough to light up the Falcons secondary.
Jacoby Brissett, MIA (vs IND)
Brissett is facing his old team and coming off of a game where he twice led his team on game-tying do-or-die drives, which should boost his confidence. He is adding value as a runner, including a touchdown run to tie the game last week, and the Colts have already allowed nine passing scores despite facing only 80 passing attempts and 55 completions. That’s right - one of every 6.1 pass completions and one of every 8.9 pass attempts against the Colts this year have gone for touchdowns.
Running Back
Peyton Barber, LV (at LAC)
Josh Jacobs got back on the practice field, so we may know by Sunday that Barber isn’t worth the sleeper start, but if Jacobs is iffy or ruled out, Barber could be a terrific play against a Chargers run defense that allowed the Cowboys running game to get on track and gave up a 100-yard game to Clyde Edwards-Helaire last week. Barber’s straight ahead running style meshes well with Jon Gruden’s offensive philosophy and Gruden should rely on him Monday night if Jacobs can’t go.
J.D. McKissic, WAS (at ATL)
Antonio Gibson has a shin injury that could affect his availability or effectiveness on Sunday. McKissic already has a passing down/two minute drill role in Washington’s offense, but that role could be expanded if Gibson is not 100%. The Falcons have also allowed at least six running back receptions in every game this year, and the Eagles, who abandoned the run to a ridiculous degree last week, had their running backs rack up 111 yards and a score against Atlanta in Week 1.
Elijah Mitchell, SF (vs SEA)
Mitchell returned to practice on a limited basis this week and might not be 100%, nursing a shoulder ailment, but it’s clear that the team trusts him a lot more than they trust Trey Sermon, so he should be the lead back as long as he can play Sunday. The Seahawks have gotten gouged on the ground each of the last two weeks, facing 35 Derrick Henry carries in Week 2 and 33 combined carries from Minnesota backs last week, for 182 and 138 yards respectively. Opposing offenses are also averaging nine running back receptions per game, with four backs notching six receptions against them already this year.
UPDATE: Mitchell's Week 4 status is "in limbo" according to the team. Trey Sermon is the pivot if Mitchell is inactive.
Leonard Fournette, TB (at NE)
This could be the primetime Lenny game as Fournette could see a lot of passing down work with Giovani Bernard banged up, and he’ll be lined up behind Tom Brady in his return to Foxboro in what should be another productive game for the Bucs offense. Bill Belichick is likely to play zone coverage with light boxes and dare the Bucs to run, which will open up lanes for Fournette. There is also a good chance that Tampa is nursing a lead in the second half and turns to Fournette to close out the game.
Brandon Bolden, NE (vs TB)
The Patriots don’t trust any other back on the roster to pass block, so look for Bolden to get a ton of snaps against a Bucs defense that smothers the run and encourages, even necessitates passing against their MASH unit of a secondary. He could be a sneaky PPR play as Mac Jones may check down a lot against the Bucs pass rush, and he will also have a shot at a garbage time score unless Jones surprises us all by keeping up with Tom Brady.
Wide Receiver
Brandon Aiyuk, SF (vs SEA)
Aiyuk was back to a starter’s share of snaps last week, and he was back in the end zone with a touchdown against the Packers. This week, George Kittle is nursing a calf injury and the 49ers are facing a Seahawks defense which has given up at least 30 points in the last two games. Aiyuk had 8-91-1 in his only game against Seattle last year, with Nick Mullens at quarterback - although also with Deebo Samuel sidelined.
Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, NE (vs TB)
All three Patriots receivers are viable sleepers this week, although Meyers is the most attractive - especially in PPR leagues - coming off his 14 target/9 catch game last week. He could top that this week with the Patriots likely to pass a lot, but have trouble threatening downfield. Bourne had the best play of the game on his touchdown last week and the Patriots may also realize that their offense was at its best last week when they went to three wide receiver sets instead of two tight ends, which will keep Bourne on the field. Agholor is the field stretcher and he is getting open for big plays, but Mac Jones either isn’t seeing him or isn’t getting the time in the pocket to find him, so he’s the boom/bust play of the trio.
Tim Patrick, DEN (vs BAL)
Patrick saw a few more targets freed up weekly by the loss of K.J. Hamler, and he should also get the weaker outside corner as long as Courtland Sutton is out there. Patrick has shown the best chemistry with Teddy Bridgewater of any Broncos receiver and that should make him a good play this week against a Ravens secondary that has allowed at least 178 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers this year when they aren’t facing the Lions.
Allen Lazard, GB (vs PIT)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been missing practice with a hamstring injury, which is tricky for a speed receiver, so expect him to be a game-time decision at best. Lazard should step into starter snaps outside with the Steelers likely to devote whatever resources they can to preventing Davante Adams from running free through their secondary. It’s easy to forget that Lazard had 13-254-2 in the first three games last year before going on the shelve with a core muscle injury.
A.J. Green, ARI (at LAR)
Green has consistently been #2 among Cardinals wideouts in snaps this year, and it finally turned into a big game in Week 3 against the Titans. The Rams should blot out DeAndre Hopkins with Jalen Ramsey, which will make Green one of the best options for Kyler Murray in a game that should be high-scoring. Green is quietly returning to fantasy relevance in one of the most prolific offenses in the league.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN (at NYJ)
It doesn’t look like A.J. Brown is going to play on Sunday, and if the Titans are smart, they will let Julio Jones rest his leg injury because they don’t need him to beat the Jets. Westbrook-Ikhine will become a starter and focal point of the pass offense and he scored last week after Brown left the game. He’s likely going to be the best wide receiver play against the Jets no name secondary this week.
Tight End
Anthony Firkser, TEN (at NYJ)
Firkser is poised to return from a knee injury, and just in time to face the Jets while the Titans are likely to be without at least one of their starting wide receivers. He could easily be Ryan Tannehill’s favorite target in this game, as Firkser was building momentum in the summer toward a breakout season before going down with a knee injury.
Will Dissly, SEA (at SF)
This one hinges on Gerald Everett’s status. He was placed on the covid list after testing positive on Wednesday. While he could return if he is vaccinated and has two negative tests over a 24 hour period, it’s not clear yet whether he is vaccinated, and that would only be possible if he has a very mild or asymptomatic case. If Everett sits, Dissly, who has been very capable as a receiver in the past, will be the primary receiving tight end for Russell Wilson, which could be very important as both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett got a little banged up last week.
Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, NE (vs TB)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before - the Patriots are likely to pass a lot on Sunday night against the Bucs. Opposing tight ends have averaged seven catches a game against the Bucs, and Kyle Pitts and Tyler Higbee have had their biggest fantasy games to date against them. Mac Jones could be in a bind trying to get the ball out quickly while the Tampa pass rush, so Smith and Henry will be in play. Smith had a terrible week against the Saints and the Patriots could look to get him involved early to restore his confidence, and if that doesn’t work or it’s not in the cards, Henry could be the primary receiving tight end. Both are worth a look if you’re desperate.
Robert Tonyan Jr, GB (vs PIT)
Tonyan makes sense as a play this week for the same reason Lazard does. He became a consistent touchdown scorer for the Packers last year at just about the same time that Valdes-Scantling was marginalized in the offense, and the Steelers stout run defense should make the Packers more inclined to throw in the red zone.
