Sunday Showdown Week 17

Photo: USA Today Sports

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. A swing pass to the third-string fullback can heavily alter the leader boards. Showdown can be a fun way to enjoy a Prime-Time game, or it can be an entire DFS portfolio. No matter the reason for playing, fortune favors the bold, and this article will never tell you a player is off-limits; even the third-string fullback. There are some cases where a great play will be so highly owned that their upside isn't worth losing the opportunity to be contrarian by fading them.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head lineups use median projections but a little variation goes a long way towards not getting duplicated.

Game Strategy

Kirk Cousins is set to miss this NFC North showdown, and unfortunately, they will not be seeing what Kellen Mond can do as a mobile quarterback in the Vikings offense. Instead, they’ve elected to go with Sean Mannion behind center. Mannion has not started a game since 2019, which did not go well for him. He has a couple of the league’s best weapons at his disposal in Dalvin Cook, and Justin Jefferson, but he is likely to struggle. Aaron Rodgers, and the Green Bay Packers are 13-point favorites, and are likely to keep rolling in their pursuit for the NFC title.

Captain Consideration

1. Davante Adams
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. A.J. Dillon
4. Aaron Jones
5. Dalvin Cook
6. Justin Jefferson
7. Tyler Conklin

Vikings Offense

Quarterback

Sean Mannion $6,000 - Flex

Sean Mannion is not a name one might look to for fantasy goodness, but he is only $6,000, and should have reasonable ownership. The Vikings offense is likely going to lack enough fire power to warrant Mannion at Captain, but he fits in well as the only other Viking in Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, or Tyler Conklin Captain lineups.

Running Back

Dalvin Cook $10,400 – Captain or Flex

Dalvin Cook missed week 16 with Covid-19. He was only out one week, but many players have struggled in their first week back after a stint on the Covid list. He managed his best fantasy outing of the season while dealing with a serious shoulder injury, so he is a tough guy to count out. Any reports leading up to game-time regarding his health will be important. He is a great play as the only Viking in Packers onslaughts with the thought that Mannion can’t manage to get anyone else the ball.

Alexander Mattison $5,000 – Flex

Alexander Mattison is only in play if reports are negative regarding Cook’s health. If Cook is good to go, Mattison is a non-factor; especially since he is in the same price range as A.J. Dillon, who is in a much better position.

Receiver

Justin Jefferson $10,800 – Captain or Flex

Justin Jefferson is only $200 less than Davante Adams, yet he is catching passes from Mannion instead of Aaron Rodgers. Jefferson has seen 10 or more targets in 9 games this season. He is likely to see at least that in this game, but the targets will have far less value than normal. If his ownership comes in much lower than Adams, he may prove to be quality leverage. He can be played as the only Viking in Packers onslaughts, or with Cook in lineups without Adams.

K.J. Osborn $7,800 – Flex

K.J. Osborn’s ownership has been consistently head scratching all season. Those who have not played him at all have certainly faired better than those who have rostered him at his unreasonable ownership in this year’s showdown slates. He happened to have caught 5 passes for 68 yards, and a touchdown last week, so he will likely be over-owned once again. With Theilen out, Osborn is playing close to 80% of the snaps, but $7,800 is too rich for his projection.

Other Targets

Tyler Conklin $5,600 - Captain or Flex

Tyler Conklin is just as likely to succeed as Osborn, and is $2,200 less. Conklin is averaging nearly 5 targets a game on the season. Unfortunately, he’s hit pay-dirt only three times, which contributes to his consistently low ownership relative to Osborn.

Dede Westbrook $2,000 – Flex

Dede Westbrook will have close to no ownership, with Ihmir Smith-Marsette being minimum price. Last week Westbrook played close to 43% of the snaps while Smith-Marsette was out of the lineup. The week prior, Smith-Marsette played roughly 48% of the snaps with Westbrook out of the lineup. The thought is that many will lean towards Smith-Marsette for the savings with so much uncertainty surrounding how the snap share will shake out. With a unique Packers onslaught there should be enough remaining salary to throw a dart with Westbrook rather than Smith-Marsette.

Packers Offense

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers $11,200 – Captain or Flex

The temperature in Green Bay will be less than 20 degrees by kick-off Sunday, but of course Aaron Rodgers is no stranger to playing in sub-freezing temperatures. His play will be affected less by the freezing winds, and more by the fact that the Packers are 13-point favorites. Aaron Jones, and A.J. Dillon should both be lineup staples on this slate. Rodgers fits well with both running-backs, as he is necessary for a Packers onslaught, but perhaps he lands at Captain slightly less than if this were a competitive dome game.

Running Back

Aaron Jones $9,000 – Captain or Flex

Aaron Jones played 56% on the snaps last week, compared to A.J. Dillon’s 44%. He still managed 17 touches to Dillon's 12. The $3,800 price difference makes Dillon a much better point-per-dollar play, but Jones is still a viable play as a 13-point home favorite. Their split should look closer to what Ezekiel Elliot, and Tony Pollard have worked out for the Cowboys, going forward.

A.J. Dillon $5,200 – Flex

A.J. Dillon has settled in as a consistent contributor. He’s getting the volume but unfortunately, he isn’t getting many high-valued touches. Despite getting goal-line opportunities of late, he’s only been able to capitalize three times on the entire season. At $5,200 he is well worth the gamble, as his role continues to grow. This environment sets up perfectly for A.J. Dillon to salt the game away. His ownership may be slightly high as a flex option, but his Captain ownership should be reasonably low.

Receiver

Davante Adams $11,000 - Captain or Flex

Davante Adams is consistently above 80% ownership regardless of his price. This week he is $11,000, which makes him the most expensive player on the slate. He is always worth fading in at least some builds because of what his salary frees up for the rest of the lineup. He can’t be counted on to have a dud simply based on weather, as he has produced in Lambeau’s harsh environment for years. He torched the Vikings secondary in week 8, and even if he’s somehow held in check, he is still likely to get short yardage work near the goal line. Life is easier with a unique lineup that includes Adams, than with a unique lineup that doesn’t include Adams.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling $6,400 – Flex

Marquez Valdes-Scantling showed up in a big way two weeks ago, with 5 catches, for 98 yards, and a touchdown. He missed last week, and is now reasonably priced at $6,400. Allen Lazard slightly out snapped Valdes-Scantling in their last game together, but Valdes-Scantling came away with more opportunities.

Allen Lazard $7,000 –Flex

Allen Lazard, and Valdes-Scantling have battled back and forth all year for more expensive, more rostered, more productive, and have now settled at virtually even in every category. Valdes-Scantling had the more recent big game, but Lazard scored last week, and is getting consistent targets. Lazard is averaging about 5 targets a game. Those same 5 targets can be found with Conklin for a price, and ownership discount, though they won’t be coming from Rodgers. If looking for a Packer’s wide receiver to pair with Rodgers between Lazard, and Valdes-Scantling, Lazard is likely to be less owned at only a slightly higher cost.

Other Targets -

Josiah Deguara $3,000 – Flex

Josiah Deguara has been rostered more, and more as his price on Draftkings has never seemed to catch up to his role. He will likely be around 30% owned, but he is averaging close to 4 targets a game over his last 4 outings, so at $3,000 he is worth the cost.