Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my third season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday) DALLAS (-5.5) at NEW ORLEANS (Over/Under 47)
The Cowboys will be without head coach Mike McCarthy on a week with a short turnaround after he entered the league’s Covid-19 protocols. McCarthy will still be able to make his presence felt virtually in the preparations, but it will fall to the rest of his staff to stop a slide that has seen the team lose three of their last four games. The market seems undeterred in this match-up, however, with the Cowboys laying 5.5 points on the road. While points were plentiful on Thanksgiving, a cleaned-up defensive effort will be required here.
New Orleans was completely listless against the Bills and outclassed throughout as their quarterback quandary reared its ugly head. Trevor Siemian is clearly not the answer, so the calls for Taysom Hill may increase in intensity if things go south. The signs are promising for the return of Alvin Kamara, which would be a gigantic boost for an offense that badly needs a spark. A strong defensive effort is a prerequisite to an upset here, and it is not as farfetched as it might seem.
Pick: New Orleans
MINNESOTA (-7) at DETROIT (Over/Under 47)
Following the Vikings has been a frustrating experience for fans and bettors alike this season. Just when you think you have them figured out, like an unruly Rubik’s cube they find a way to contort into a strange and unfamiliar alignment. Kirk Cousins has been very consistent this season, but at times it hasn’t mattered. The major news for the Vikings is that Dalvin Cook is set to miss time with a torn labrum, vaulting Alexander Mattison into the line-up. Behind Mattison’s running and a wicked double threat at receiver, the Vikings should be laying more than a touchdown here.
The Lions remain winless and do not look like a team capable of breaking that streak down the stretch. This is a winnable game on paper, but many of their games have fit that bill; they have won exactly zero of those. Dan Campbell’s coaching disaster at the end of their Thanksgiving game was embarrassing for him and the franchise. Things look grim-looking forward as well; there is no clear top quarterback in the upcoming NFL Draft, putting the Lions in a fix. Nothing is likely to be fixed against the Vikings, unfortunately for them.
Pick: Minnesota
ARIZONA (-7.5) at CHICAGO (Over/Under 46)
The bye week came at a good time for the surging Cardinals, affording Kyler Murray extra time to rehab his injury. DeAndre Hopkins, too, should make a return to the line-up, setting up Kliff Kingsbury’s team nicely for the stretch run. With the number one seed very much in their crosshairs, this trip to Chicago represents a potential banana skin. We have seen many teams stutter into life coming off a bye. The task for the Cardinals is to stay ahead of the Packers, who have the tiebreaker on them.
Matt Nagy bought himself an extra week at least as the Bears’ head coach, but this is a ship lost at sea. Andy Dalton performed well in relief of Justin Fields last week, and one wonders whether Nagy, under pressure to deliver late-season wins, might consider sticking with the veteran. The Cardinals defense would give Fields a rough ride, so the Bears will need a balanced attack and a disciplined defense to put the brakes on Arizona. Don’t bet on it.
Pick: Arizona
TAMPA BAY (-10.5) at ATLANTA (Over/Under 50.5)
The NFC South is all but sewn up for the Buccaneers, who appear to be timing their run well just as they did last season on the way to a Super Bowl title. The comeback over the Colts was a signature win for this team, once again demonstrating the star power they have at their disposal. Laying 10.5 points on the road to the lowly Falcons, there is very little reason to argue that they are not poised to stomp their division rivals to the mat here.
Atlanta’s fighting spirit was on display in Jacksonville, with Cordarrelle Patterson proving his value once again. There is a chance that Matt Ryan could get fired up by the battle against Tom Brady – possibly the last time they will meet – so don’t be shocked if Kyle Pitts and Patterson get free a few times. The Atlanta offense could offer some resistance, so the +10.5 is appealing here, even if the Bucs take care of business ultimately.
Pick: Atlanta
INDIANAPOLIS (-8.5) at HOUSTON (Over/Under 46.5)
The Colts are technically on the bubble in the playoff race, but there is every reason to believe they are the match of, if not better than, their division rival Tennessee. Falling to 6-6 after the defeat to the Bucs, the path ahead is not too tricky for Frank Reich’s team. Carson Wentz’s play continues to be very solid, as does that of the defense. While Jonathan Taylor was kept quiet last week, this match-up offers a chance for him to open it up. Could 200 yards be within his reach in this clash? Quite possibly.
Houston continues to play out the string with some pride, but in the end they have very little to show for their efforts. Tyrod Taylor could throw a spanner in the works for those considering a punt on Colts -8.5, of course, but that is unlikely to happen. Expect this to be a business-as-usual type of encounter for the visitors, who need to keep pace in a crowded AFC picture.
Pick: Indianapolis
PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) at NY JETS (Over/Under 45.5)
The 49ers and Vikings are locked into the two NFC wildcard spots, but the race is not yet run for the Eagles – yet. Granted, the loss to the Giants was a major disappointment just as the world had convinced themselves that Jalen Hurts was the answer, but there is solace in the fact the Jets are up next. The Vegas sharps believe the Eagles are well worth being strong favorites here. They should be able to feast on the inexperience of Zach Wilson and get their ground game going, so it is hard to argue.
As for the Jets, the win in Houston was a lift for them as a team, but it didn’t do much other than change their draft position slightly. The next step for head coach Robert Saleh is building up a bit of momentum to finish out the campaign on a high. A win over the Eagles to make it back-to-back losses in New Jersey for the visitors would be just the way to do it. Wilson will have to be careful with ‘Big Play’ Darius Slay at cornerback.
Pick: New York
LA CHARGERS at CINCINNATI (-3) (Over/Under 50.5)
In a battle of the number seven and number five seeds in the current AFC playoff picture, the Chargers will look to get out of their funk against the red-hot Bengals. Justin Herbert’s play deteriorated hugely under pressure last week, but he also produced some moments of magic to keep his team afloat. Despite the uncertainty on what kind of effort the Chargers will put forth, they are getting just three points here on the road.
Whether Bengals head coach Zac Taylor uses the -3 point line as ammunition to fire up his players remains to be seen, but he should. After all, there is a clear gap in quality and form between these teams; the Bengals should like their chances of putting Herbert into bad spots and capitalizing on the Chargers in the secondary for big plays to Jamarr Chase. Vegas might have this number wrong; the best play is to jump on the inefficiency early in the week.
Pick: Cincinnati
NY GIANTS at MIAMI (-3) (Over/Under 42)
The Giants upset the Eagles’ proverbial apple cart last week, putting the clamps on Jalen Hurts and the offense from start to finish. Still, Joe Judge’s team remains one of the more frustrating to watch, often bumbling game-sealing opportunities. That has been the story of the Giants season in a nutshell: they get close only to trip over, much like Daniel Jones’ infamous stumble. In Miami, New York’s offense will have to be crisp and show more than Carolina did last week.
Many are touting the Dolphins as a resurgent team and one capable of securing an improbable postseason berth. There is a lot of work to do between now and the end of the season to realize that, but the schedule is not daunting. Helping matters is the improved play of Tua Tagovailoa and a defense that has the tenacity to cause problems. If the game script goes Miami’s way, it could be a nightmare for the Giants. However, the Giants have a habit of hanging around, so the +3 is appealing.
Pick: New York
WASHINGTON at LAS VEGAS (-2.5) (Over/Under 49.5)
With their victory on Monday night, the Football Team – yes, them – have moved into the seventh playoff spot in the NFC. The race for the wildcard spots will be feisty and could go down to the wire, but what we can say is that Washington is not going anywhere. Much like last season, they’ve kept their best for last. A trip to Las Vegas could be tricky coming off such a high-profile primetime game, but Ron Rivera’s team appears to be maturing. Taylor Heinicke should find some joy against the Raiders defense.
For the Raiders, it is a matter of not letting the momentum from the Dallas victory go to waste. With 10 days to prepare, they have the edge here. The line has moved a half-point after Washington’s heroics, so expect a little bit of money to come in on the home team. The spot is nice, but it is tough to trust Las Vegas; to do so would be, if you’ll pardon the pun, rolling the dice. Take the points on offer.
Pick: Washington
BALTIMORE (-3.5) at PITTSBURGH (Over/Under 44.5)
If you are a fan of trends, this rivalry has a peach: the underdog has covered in the last seven clashes in this series. However, the Steelers are just 1-6 against the spread at home this year, a departure from their usually dependable numbers at Heinz Field. A lot of their decline has to do with an end-of-the-road Ben Roethlisberger, but there are other issues, too. At 5-5-1, this feels very much like a last-chance game for Big Ben to put his stamp on this team’s run-in and perhaps save the season.
For Baltimore, the stakes are nowhere near as dire. After throwing four picks last week, though, Lamar Jackson will be hoping to author a more consistent performance against the division rivals. Very much in contention to be the number one seed, the Ravens should be able to take care of their business here. In what could be a knock-down, drag-out type of contest, back Baltimore to put the final nail in the Steelers’ coffin for the 2021 season.
Pick: Baltimore
JACKSONVILLE at LA RAMS (-13.5) (Over/Under 48)
The under is an attractive way to approach this game, what with the Jaguars’ recent run of hitting on it – their last six games have gone under the total. With the Jaguars offense struggling mightily to get out of its own way, and with a dearth of playmakers for a low-confidence Trevor Lawrence to throw to, expect a moribund effort on the road.
The Rams will be eager to get past their recent struggles and reassert themselves in the NFC playoff picture, but this may be a case of peaking too soon. Matthew Stafford looks more fragile as the weeks go by, and the loss of Robert Woods really seems to be affecting the rhythm of the passing game. This game will not tell us much about the Rams’ trajectory; however, anything but a convincing win will raise red flags for the L.A. faithful.
Pick: Los Angeles
SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) at SEATTLE (Over/Under 46.5)
The Seahawks have won four of the last five games against the 49ers, but this is not your big brother’s Seahawks team. Indeed, things have gone south in a major way for this franchise, with much finger-pointing and questions being asked about Pete Carroll’s stewardship. If they are going down, though, they will be keen to take the 49ers with them. At 3-8, Seattle is reduced to a spoiler role now; let’s see how well they can play it.
The line moved here to -3.5 in San Francisco’s favor after the Seahawks’ loss to Washington on Monday night, a reflection of the shifting market sentiment around the home team. The onus is on the 49ers to deliver a strong performance here to put their division rivals to bed. With Deebo Samuel and Fred Warner out, however, this could be a tricky ask. Seattle is a team with their backs to the wall, after all.
Pick: Seattle
(Sunday Night) DENVER at KANSAS CITY (-10) (Over/Under 48)
The Chiefs have been the bogey team for the Broncos for a long time – 11 games, to be precise. Not one of the last 11 meetings between these teams has seen the Broncos come out victorious. Given their propensity for topsy-turvy performances this season, it is hard to predict the Broncos can do anything except keep it close in this clash. Denver’s defensive strength will likely keep them on pace against the Chiefs, but they will need to win the turnover battle to stand a chance.
The week off will have done the Chiefs the world of good, and it seemed they had finally turned a corner with the win against Dallas. There are still cracks for teams to exploit, but the -10 line here gives a glimpse into what Vegas thinks about them from a pedigree and talent perspective. Kansas City has gone under in five of the last six games, so that could be a good angle to attack if you are not willing to lay the double-digit points.
Pick: Denver
(Monday Night) NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO (-3) (Over/Under 45)
The best is saved for last this week, as the surging Patriots clash with their division rival Bills, the first of two games between these teams in a three-week span. The results will determine who comes out on top in the AFC East, more than likely. Furthermore, it will have a huge bearing on which team can secure a top seed in the playoffs. The Patriots will back their ability to get after Josh Allen, forcing him into the types of mistakes he has made on many occasions this season. If Mac Jones can remain calm under the lights, New England has a great chance.
Allen is built for big moments like this, so do not be surprised if he is let loose on the Patriots defense. The rushing threat he offers is a key advantage for the home team to exploit. Sean McDermott will have a good game plan to put Jones into uncomfortable situations, but the key focus will be on stopping the Patriots’ prolific ground attack. There are many angles to keep an eye on here, but the slight edge has to go to New England based on recent form.
Pick: New England
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 DENVER (+10) at KANSAS CITY
- 2 BALTIMORE (-3.5) at PITTSBURGH
- 3 CINCINNATI (-3) vs. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
- 4 INDIANAPOLIS (-8.5) at HOUSTON
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 13 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM ATS DOUBLE (2.61-1 ODDS)
- DENVER (+10)
- BALTIMORE (-3.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 2-TEAM ATS DOUBLE (2.42-1 ODDS):
- CINCINNATI (-3)
- INDIANAPOLIS (-8.5)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 4-TEAM MONEY LINE (7-1 ODDS)
- ARIZONA – FOR THE WIN
- CINCINNATI – FOR THE WIN
- BALTIMORE – FOR THE WIN
- MINNESOTA – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Denver, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Indianapolis
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 9-6
- SEASON OVERALL: 80-98-1
- BEST BETS: 23-25
- PICKS OF THE WEEK: 23-30
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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