Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my third season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday) KANSAS CITY (-3) at LA CHARGERS (Over/Under 51)
There is nothing quite like a little early playoff preview. This week, the current AFC 3rd seed Kansas City will visit the current 5th seed Los Angeles; with only one game separating them in the standings, however, the picture could become more muddled in the aftermath. Andy Reid’s team has put to bed any questions about a malaise in his team, stacking up six wins in a row. The Chiefs are winning; they’re just not doing it the way they did the last couple of years. What matters is the formula is working, and that earns them a favorites tag on the road here.
Justin Herbert’s arm talent continues to dazzle all those who behold it. The deep shots he made last Sunday were stunning, a reminder to the Chiefs defense that they will have to cover every blade of grass in this contest. The Chargers will have to bring a strong blend of offensive attack to penetrate a defense that has allowed just 9.0 points per game over their last three games and 20.6 points per game this season. While Los Angeles may be able to hang tough in an entertaining back and forth affair, laying the three with the road team is a nice bet to start off the week.
Pick: Kansas City
(Saturday) LAS VEGAS at CLEVELAND (-3.5) (Over/Under 43)
In the first game of a special Saturday double-header, the moribund Raiders (yes, they have fallen that far) face the Browns. While only one win separates these teams in the standings, they are four positions apart in the playoff seedings – the Browns occupying the eighth position, while the Raiders are drowning in 12th. While there isn’t a whole lot to be excited about from a Las Vegas perspective, getting 3.5 points does seem a little outlandish considering the struggles of the Browns.
Kevin Stefanski has remained steadfast in his support of a hobbled Baker Mayfield as his starting quarterback, and at times that decision has paid off. However, if the Browns were to find themselves in a negative game script here, Mayfield could be exposed – even by a subpar Raiders defense. The game script for Cleveland here must be a heavy dose of Nick Chubb against a Las Vegas rush defense that ranks 26th in the league in terms of yardage given up. The Covid-19 situation that has arisen for the Browns complicates things, so jump on the +3.5 while you can.
Pick: Las Vegas
(Saturday) NEW ENGLAND at INDIANAPOLIS (-2) (Over/Under 45)
In another potential postseason preview, the top-seeded Patriots (who thought we would be saying that this season?) will pit their wits against the sixth seed Colts. The Vegas sharps have somewhat thrown their hands in the air for this one, making the home team a slight favorite. On a neutral field, therefore, we can assume the Patriots would be short favorites. With homefield advantage mattering less in the league these days, however, the +2 for the Patriots looks awfully tempting.
The bubble might burst for Mac Jones one of these games, but it likely won’t be this one. Indianapolis’ defense certainly has the talent to create problems, but Bill Belichick has got his young quarterback in such a comfort zone that it will be difficult to get him out of it. The Patriots defense will be able to frustrate Carson Wentz and keep Jonathan Taylor in check. With both teams fresh off the bye, expect a closely fought affair with the Patriots edging it.
Pick: New England
WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA (-4) (Over/Under 43.5)
They’re not done yet, you know. The Washington Football Team may have suffered an embarrassing loss on Sunday, but they are still clinging on as the seventh seed in the NFC. In this battle of 6-7 teams, however, the advantage is with the Eagles – off the bye and ready for the stretch run. The opening line for this game had the home team as -2.5-point favorites; since Sunday, that has moved to -4. With a lack of certainty over the status of Taylor Heinicke, the Football Team may have to roll with Kyle Allen – and possibly no Terry McLaurin.
In other words, the spot is perfect for Philadelphia to fly. Jalen Hurts should be back in the line-up after an injury-enforced absence vaulted Gardner Minshew into the limelight. Honestly, even if Minshew had to suit up again there wouldn’t be a problem. After much tumult and drama this season, the runway is clear for the Eagles to put Washington out of their misery.
Pick: Philadelphia
CAROLINA at BUFFALO (-9.5) (Over/Under 43.5)
The Panthers are in a world of hurt right now, producing uninspiring football that has triggered early questions about Matt Rhule’s future. While the remaining games may not matter much in the grand scheme of things for the franchise, they do for Rhule. If the head coach really wants to run the ball all day, this might just be the week to do it. After all, the Bills gave up chunks of yardage against the Colts and Patriots on the ground. The question is whether Chuba Hubbard and Cam Newton can handle that kind of workload – and more importantly, make it count.
Carolina’s defense might be able to hold serve for a little while, but the Bills offense has more than enough firepower to break their will. Josh Allen played well last week in the loss to the Bucs, almost putting the team on his back at times. This week, Sean McDermott, who used to be on the Carolina coaching staff, will have a strong game plan to put the clamps on Newton and company. Lay the points here and don’t think twice about it.
Pick: Buffalo
NY JETS at MIAMI (-8.5) (Over/Under 43)
If the Dolphins plan to crash the playoff party, nothing except a convincing victory will do here. Getting to 7-7 should be straightforward, of course, against a hapless Jets team that has been the picture of poor play recently. Coming off a bye, Brian Flores’ team will have plenty of motivation to keep up their stingy streak defensively, grinding the Jets into dust. That goes some way to explaining the total of 43; Vegas expects a low-scoring affair that will be one-sided.
The concerns continue to mount over Zach Wilson’s growth. The rookie has shown very little in his maiden NFL voyage to get especially excited about, and the excuses of ‘the game is moving too fast for him’ only hold for so long. The Jets as a franchise continue to disappoint, so even a battling performance here would bring a smile to Robert Saleh’s worn face. Given the Dolphins’ propensity for games where points are at a premium, take the points and see what happens.
Pick: New York
DALLAS (-10.5) at NY GIANTS (Over/Under 45)
While Dak Prescott was unconvincing, the Cowboys defense was not in the critical victory over Washington last week. The NFC East is all but sewn up, so the Cowboys could even afford to rest key starters the remainder of the season. They probably won’t, but it speaks to the type of comfort they have in their position. Currently occupying the fourth seed, they have to turn their focus now to improving their offensive consistency.
The Giants got annihilated by the Chargers on Sunday, piling more pressure on Joe Judge as the season comes to its end. Giving 10.5 points as a home team is an embarrassment for this proud franchise. One has to wonder if Judge will be harshly, ahem, judged if the Giants were unable to put up a fight here against their division rival. Mike Glennon will once again start at quarterback as Daniel Jones’ injury appears to have more layers to it. If Washington can keep it within seven points with Dallas, New York should be able to.
Pick: New York
TENNESSEE (-2) at PITTSBURGH (Over/Under 41.5)
Blink and you might have missed it: the Titans are indeed 9-4 and tied record-wise with the Patriots atop the AFC. While New England has the tiebreaker, the Titans have everything to play for. Last week’s demolition of Jacksonville wasn’t notable for much apart from a stingy defensive performance that left Trevor Lawrence bereft of confidence. Laying two points on the road in Pittsburgh, the verdict from Vegas is clear: Tennessee is a clearly better team here.
And yet, Pittsburgh has a way of spoiling the party. The Steelers are 2-0 against the spread this season when they have been listed as the home underdog. While Ben Roethlisberger is clearly on his last legs, there is a scenario here where the defense dominates the Titans offensive line and creates a negative game script immediately. Perhaps it is foolhardy, but the Steelers have credit built up in this department – and the Titans are notorious for no-showing in games like these.
Pick: Pittsburgh
HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE (-3) (Over/Under 40.5)
The Texans may like their chances of knocking off their division rival this week, what with the rumblings that all is not well in Jacksonville with Urban Meyer’s regime. Jaguars owner Shad Khan says he won’t be impulsive with the embattled head coach, but the owner having to come out and say that isn’t exactly an encouraging sign. Given the turmoil ensuing, the Texans and Davis Mills, who has performed reasonably well for a rookie, are qualified as live underdogs.
The smartest play of all here would be to fade this basement battle completely, of course, opting for tastier clashes elsewhere on the slate. And yet there is something oddly appealing about betting against the lowly Jaguars and in favor of the plucky Texans, who at the very least have shown some life this season. Meyer’s final days could get ugly. If you’re giving me three points, Vegas, I’m taking them.
Pick: Houston
ARIZONA (-14) at DETROIT (Over/Under 47.5)
The Cardinals fell through the trap door in the NFC playoff picture after their loss on Monday night, going from the top seed to the third seed in an instant. Green Bay has the inside track to secure the bye, as they hold the tiebreaker over Arizona. Fortunately for Kliff Kingsbury’s team, this week will cure what ails them as they travel to Detroit. While they weren’t far away on a few plays against the Rams, there was a lack of spark and issues surfaced in terms of pass protection, not positive trends as we get closer to the playoffs.
For the Lions, it is about putting it up to Arizona and finding a way to keep it close. The 14-point spread, though, is pretty much where it should be and is a fair representation of the gap between these teams. More than likely, Jared Goff will fold under an avalanche of pressure from the Cardinals’ active front seven and the game script could get ugly fast. It is never advisable to lay 14 points, however, so take the points and see what happens. You never know, there may be some late heroics by the Lions once again.
Pick: Detroit
ATLANTA at SAN FRANCISCO (-8.5) (Over/Under 45.5)
George Kittle makes it seem like he is a man amongst boys sometimes. His performance against the Bengals was nothing short of stellar, helping to power the 49ers to a 7-6 record and the sixth seed in the NFC playoffs. The task this week is to knock off an Atlanta team that doesn’t seem to know when it is dead. Expect the 49ers to take care of business here, but Kyle Shanahan will be wary of a quarterback he knows very well in Matt Ryan to keep things close.
Of course, Atlanta, even at 6-7, is not finished yet and could sneak into the playoffs if the ball bounces their way. Head coach Arthur Smith is doing the best he can with the tools he has at his disposal. The onus will be on the Falcons defense to keep the ball in Jimmy Garoppolo’s hands and force a few mistakes, which the 49ers passer is more than capable of. This feels like a slugfest, so grab the points.
Pick: Atlanta
CINCINNATI at DENVER (-1.5) (Over/Under 43.5)
The football world enjoyed the overtime drama that Cincinnati and San Francisco produced last week, but ultimately the Bengals came out second best. That has become something of a familiar pattern for this iteration of Cincinnati. For their sake, at least they have a winning record and a wide-open division race to encourage them. Joe Burrow continues to fire darts despite intense pressure; he will need all his toughness this week against a physical Denver defense.
The Broncos are 7-6 as well and will be hopeful of going on a run themselves to secure a coveted AFC wildcard berth. The picture remains cloudy, but Vic Fangio would have taken this position had you offered it to him prior to the season, one would wager. In what could be a low-scoring affair, the slight edge goes to the visitors. Vegas has it right with the -1.5 line – this is a classic toss-up.
Pick: Cincinnati
SEATTLE at LA RAMS (-7) (Over/Under 47)
The Seahawks are salvaging their season with a couple of victories down the stretch. The question is whether it will be enough to save the Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson partnership for another season. No matter how the season ends for Seattle, we may see the end of it, but a winning feeling might provide a bit of pause to the decision-makers. The Rams defense will provide a stiff test for Wilson and the offense, but don’t be surprised if the visitors can keep this close.
As for the Rams, the Monday night performance was a clear reminder to the rest of the league that they are going nowhere. Currently occupying the fifth seed in the NFC playoff picture, Sean McVay’s team can hold out some hope for a division title if things fell nicely. Aaron Donald could have a field day against the interior of Seattle’s offensive line, so back L.A. to carry on the positive momentum.
Pick: Los Angeles
GREEN BAY (-5) at BALTIMORE (Over/Under 43.5)
With the Ravens hopeful that Lamar Jackson can suit up against the Packers, the question becomes how limited he will be moving in the pocket. If Jackson can’t run as he normally does, his threat is severely diminished. In any case, the Ravens will have a hard time moving the ball consistently against the Packers defense which, despite giving up a boatload of points to the Bears, has the players to bamboozle Baltimore.
Aaron Rodgers is playing some of the best football of his career now, and that is quite a statement considering the resumé he has put together. As tight as the Ravens can be defensively, there is no defense for a perfect pass; Rodgers has made a habit of those types of passes in recent games. Locked in as the number one seed, Green Bay will be highly motivated to knock off a weakened Baltimore team.
Pick: Green Bay
(Sunday Night) NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY (-11) (Over/Under 47)
The Saints are hanging in there – not quite done yet, indeed, but not headed for anywhere except mediocrity. The win over the Jets was convincing mainly due to a defensive shutdown, but the Bucs will provide a few more challenges, to say the least. The previous meeting of these teams this season saw New Orleans come out on top in a strange game; don’t expect that story to repeat itself this week.
Tampa Bay is currently in the second seed in the NFC, so a bye is well within their reach if things fall their way. Tom Brady shows zero signs of slowing down; if anything, his focus has only increased of late. An MVP seems likely for him if he continues at his current pace. The Saints don’t have the receivers to take advantage of the Bucs’ biggest weakness – their secondary – so expect a slaughter here.
Pick: Tampa Bay
(Monday Night) MINNESOTA (-3.5) at CHICAGO (Over/Under 44)
The Vikings took care of business in a wild affair against the Steelers last week, but at 6-7 still find themselves on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs. A trip to Chicago is a serious banana skin game, but then again, many games for the Vikings fit that bill. They have never settled in the so-called ‘circle of trust’ teams for 2021.
Chicago’s offense and special teams came to life against the Packers, an encouraging sign entering this prime-time match-up. At this point it is all about Justin Fields’ development trajectory; the Vikings defense will provide stiff opposition, so the rookie will be told all week by his coaches not to hold on to the ball too long. The +3.5 for the home underdog is a nice play here.
Pick: Chicago
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 NEW ENGLAND (+2) at INDIANAPOLIS
- 2 PHILADELPHIA (-4) vs. WASHINGTON
- 3 GREEN BAY (-5) at BALTIMORE
- 4 ATLANTA (+8.5) at SAN FRANCISCO
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 15 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM ATS DOUBLE (2.61-1 ODDS)
- GREEN BAY (-5)
- ATLANTA (+8.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 2-TEAM ATS DOUBLE (2.42-1 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (+2)
- PHILADELPHIA (-4)
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: New England, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Atlanta
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 7-7
- SEASON OVERALL: 93-113-1
- BEST BETS: 25-31
- PICKS OF THE WEEK: 25-36
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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