Cracking FanDuel Week 11

Photo: USA Today Sports

Sunday Morning Update

Check back each Sunday Morning around 11:45 EST for any updates based on the actives/inactives and Sunday news. Note, we will always put something on here even if it is as simple as “no update”.

Sunday Morning Update #1 10:17AM EST

An underreported piece of news this week is the return of Tony Jones for the Saints and the impact that this will have on Mark Ingram. It was announced last night, that the Saints would be activating Jones off of IR and while on the surface it may not seem like a big deal, it is enough to scare me off of Ingram. When healthy, Jones was on the field for 25-35% of the snaps in Weeks 1-3. If he's on the field for 25-35% of the snaps this week, it is hard to see Mark Ingram hitting value. The Saints are without their top two elite tackles (Ramczyk and Armstead), and it looks like Taysom Hill is going to give it a go. Even if Hill doesn't play, I've come completely off Ingram.

Now the problem is, where do we go if not Ingram? The three contenders are James Conner, David Montgomery, and Myles Gaskin. Montgomery/Gaskin are easy swaps, but what I'm really trying to do is get up to Conner without sacrificing too much. I'm going down to Mahomes off of Allen. I admittedly don't love it, but only have a 2 point difference in my projections between the two players. Mahomes should be more than fine, which will allow me to get to Conner who also provides late swap flexibility in the flex position due to the 4:05 start time.

Cash Game Lineup

• QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $8,300
• RB Jeff Wilson, SF, $5,000
• RB A.J. Dillon, GB, $7,000,
• WR Davante Adams, GB $8,400
• WR Deebo Samuel, SF, $7,600
• WR Michael Gallup, DAL, $5,400
• TE Travis Kelce, KC, $7,300
• Flex RB James Conner, ARI, $7,200
• TD Washington, $3,500

Sunday Morning Update #2 11:45 EST

Lamar Jackson has been ruled out. The only impact that this has is that this should be a significant upgrade to the Bears defense. Take the Bears over Washington this week as Tyler Huntley will be starting at quarterback. Huntley is not terrible as he was a game manager in college who only threw four interceptions his final year at Utah, but on the road in his first start, this should be a difficult matchup against a Bears team that likes to rush the passer.

Final Cash Game Lineup

• QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $8,300
• RB Jeff Wilson, SF, $5,000
• RB A.J. Dillon, GB, $7,000,
• WR Davante Adams, GB $8,400
• WR Deebo Samuel, SF, $7,600
• WR Michael Gallup, DAL, $5,400
• TE Travis Kelce, KC, $7,300
• Flex RB James Conner, ARI, $7,200
• TD Chicago, $3,500

Editorial Note: Terms of Service

I really hate to write this in an article, but we’ve received multiple reports of some people taking the primary cash lineup and selling it as their own. While we are flattered that you think the lineup is quality enough to sell on its own, this is against Footballguys terms of service and action will be taken if this continues.

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Kansas City (vs Dallas) 29.25 points
• Buffalo (vs Indianapolis) 28.5 points
• Tennessee (vs Houston) 27.5 points
• Cleveland (vs Detroit) 27.5 points
• Dallas (at Kansas City) 26.75 points

Week 10 Recap

Week 10 was another positive week, as the cash lineup ended up with 124.74 on a low scoring week. While not a dominant lineup, it still finished in roughly the top 35% of all lineups even with a few plays that looked like were going to sink the lineup.

What went right:

• Mark Ingram was surprisingly only 50% rostered in most cash contests last week. He was largely the key here to have a successful day as it allowed you to go up to some of the better plays (Dalvin Cook over James Conner or going up to Josh Allen).
• Josh Allen ended up being good enough with 21.7 points last week. With Tom Brady and Justin Herbert both having 15 or less, paying up for Allen was the right call last week of the cash game viable quarterbacks.
• Dan Arnold continues to produce at the tight end position as he ended up last week with 11.2 points at just $5,100. This was a significant advantage over Pat Freiermuth who was higher rostered and ended up with just 3.4 points.

What went wrong:

• Wide receiver continues to be an issue even during this winning streak. A.J. Brown almost sank the lineup as he had just 2.8 points while being the least rostered player on the squad. This was a prime position for Brown to have a big game but was unable to beat the bracket coverage that the Saints gave him.

INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?

A significant amount of injuries this week, which will make the Sunday Morning Update critical.

• Alvin Kamara is once again out this week with a foot injury as Mark Ingram will once again be firmly in play as the Saints lone running back. Ingram was on the field a staggering 85% of the plays which even Kamara has only topped twice this season.
• Jeremy McNichols is likely going to miss this week with a concussion. D’Onta Foreman is not going to stand out as a must play but is still a fairly solid one especially in GPP’s. He’s looked significantly better than Adrian Peterson and there is a path where Foreman against his former team has a big game this week.
• Elijah Mitchell looks like he is going to be out this week with a finger injury and a rib injury. Jeff Wilson will be one of the more popular players on this slate.
• Chase Edmonds will once again miss this week leaving James Conner as the primary ball carrier in Arizona. Conner was on the field for 82% of the plays and while he did not have tremendous success against a good Panthers defense, did find the end zone once again this past week.
• Nick Chubb has been activated off the Covid list and will start this week.
• Amari Cooper has been put on the Covid list and will miss this week. In what is expected to be the highest scoring game of the week, look for CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup to both get a significant boost this week.

So many running back options

This week is critical to nail the cash game running backs as there are seven running backs all that are great cash game plays on a normal week, so differentiating between them is going to be difficult. We are going to rank these running backs in order of best cash game play this week.

Top Tier

Jeff Wilson- $5,000

Jeff Wilson comes out as the top cash game play this week and it is primarily driven by value. At just $5,000, he allows significant flexibility to your lineup construction that you are going to want him in your lineup. With no Elijah Mitchell, Wilson should be in line to see the volume that he did late last season where he had 62 touches in the last three games of the season. The 49ers take on a Jaguars team in which they should have the lead as they’re 6.5-point favorites in this one.

A.J. Dillon- $7,000

With Aaron Jones out with a knee injury, A.J. Dillon is in prime position to be a cash game mainstay until FanDuel can raise his price appropriately. At just $6,200, Dillon is as near of a lock as you will find on this slate. Last week, Dillon had 21 carries, and while he was not overly productive as he had just 66 yards, he was able to find the end-zone twice. This week, Dillon gets a slightly favorable matchup against the Vikings. The Vikings are allowing 4.4 yards-per-carry on the season and 101 yards per game to the running back position. Dillon should see 20 carries in this game unless the game script takes him out of it which seems like a low possibility in what is expected to be a close game.

Middle Tier

Mark Ingram- $6,800

With no Alvin Kamara, the Saints showed that they are not going to change their offense and feel comfortable with Mark Ingram filling as the primary running back. Ingram had 18 touches last week, and while on the ground he was not able to do much amounting just 47 yards, but did have success as a receiver as he had 61 yards on 4 receptions. While Ingram may not have the upside that Kamara has, he still should be heavily involved and to get him at just $6,800 is a steal this week. If Taysom Hill is out, Ingram jumps into the top tier, but still behind Wilson and Dillon.

James Conner- $7,200

When it comes to a cash game running back, you really want two things. The first is consistent volume, essentially, you want a running back who is going to touch the ball at least 17 times. The second is touchdown equity, you want a running back who is going to get the ball in the red zone. James Conner fits both of these requirements perfectly this week and is at a very discounted price at just $7,200. With no Chase Edmonds, FanDuel seemingly mis-priced Conner based on of his disappointing performance last week. Conner was game scripted out of the game last week but was able to salvage part of his day by finding the endzone. Conner now has a touchdown in seven of his ten games and 11 touchdowns on the season. This week the risk of getting game-scripted is much less as the Cardinals should get Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back.

Myles Gaskin- $6,200

When you think about Myles Gaskin, he’s not someone you typically go out of your way to target as he’s largely been a player who has been a low volume receiving back with inconsistent touches. That’s largely changing, and now he’s a running back who is getting the touches (41 over his last two games), but has not done much with the volume as he has averaged just 1.9 yards-per-carry over his last two games. The key to Gaskin being in consideration this week is that he is facing the Jets. The Jets run defense has completely fallen apart as they have allowed 14 touchdowns to opposing running backs over their last four games. This is the opposite of the Immovable Object vs Unstoppable Force as the question ultimately is whether the Jets struggles will continue or if Gaskin’s lack of production will continue.

Other Running Backs

D’Onta Foreman
David Montgomery
Alex Collins

Cash Game Core

Josh Allen- $8,800

Allen likely will not be the highest rostered quarterback this week as that will likely go to Patrick Mahomes II after his Sunday night performance against Las Vegas. However, just like we did not overreact with Allen last week after a poor performance two weeks ago, we are not going to overreact for Patrick Mahomes II. Josh Allen gets to face an Indianapolis team that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and second-most passing touchdowns per game. The Colts have faced a fairly easy schedule thus far when it comes to passing offenses as outside of a game in Week 2 against the Rams, they have not faced a top tier passing offense (JAC, NYJ, TEN x2, SF, HOU, MIA, SEA). This is a defense that allowed 402 yards to Josh Johnson+Mike White of the Jets and 442 passing yards to Lamar Jackson. We didn’t see Josh Allen run last week, mostly due to the blowout, but he does have 50+ yards rushing in three of his last five games which just adds to his floor.

Travis Kelce- $7,300

Travis Kelce’s price has finally fallen to a point where he is usable once again. While no longer the player he was several seasons ago where he was seemingly open every single play, Kelce is still the best receiving tight end in the NFL. If the Chiefs are going to continue to have success as they did last week against the Raiders, it is going to have to be with the dual-threat of Kelce and Hill and not just Hill as it was earlier this season. Dallas has had linebacker issues this season with the departure of Jaylon Smith, Leighton Vander Esch’s coverage issues, and Micah Parsons who is an outstanding run-stopper/pass rusher but has shown a weakness in coverage as well.

Michael Gallup- $5,400

At just $5,400, Gallup slides into the highest scoring game of the week in what is his second game back from injury. Last week was not a great indicator of what Gallup will be this season, as 10 receivers caught passes for the Cowboys in the game that ended up becoming a blowout very early on. Gallup is a high-risk high-reward receiver, but at the price he fits and allows so many top-end options at the wide receiver position, that if he can get 8-10 points that’s really all we are looking for from him. Gallup was a 1,000 yard receiver the last time that him and Dak had consistently played together (Dak injured in 2020, Gallup injured in 2021), so there definitely is upside here especially if Kansas City focuses in on shutting down CeeDee Lamb.

LINEUPS-

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 137.3)

• QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,700
• RB Jeff Wilson, SF, $5,000
• RB Mark Ingram II, NO, $6,800
• WR Davante Adams, GB $8,400
• WR Deebo Samuel, SF, $7,600
• WR Michael Gallup, DAL, $5,400
• TE Travis Kelce, KC, $7,300
• Flex RB A.J. Dillon, GB, $7,000
• TD Washington, $3,500

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Kansas City/Dallas Stack- Small GPP- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 134.9)

• QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $8,300
• RB Jeff Wilson, SF, $5,000
• RB James Conner, ARI, $7,200
• WR Tyreek Hill, KC, $8,500
• WR Deebo Samuel, SF, $7,600
• WR Michael Gallup, DAL, $5,400
• TE Travis Kelce, KC, $7,300
• Flex RB A.J. Dillon, GB, $7,000
• TD Washington, $3,500

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – Cincinnati/Las Vegas Stack- Large GPP(FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 131.5)

• QB Joe Burrow, CIN, $7,400
• RB Jeff Wilson, SF, $5,000
• RB Myles Gaskin, MIA, $6,200
• WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, $7,700
• WR Tyreek Hill, KC, $8,500
• WR Deebo Samuel, SF, $7,600
• TE Darren Waller, $6,700
• Flex RB A.J. Dillon, GB, $7,000
• TD Philadelphia, $3,900