Cracking FanDuel Week 7

Photo: USA Today Sports

Sunday Morning Update

Check back in around 11:30 EST each Sunday Morning as inactives are announced to see if there is any change to the primary lineup.

Sunday Morning Update #1 10:03 EST

According to Ian Rapoport on Twitter this morning, "WR DeVante Parker is listed as questionable with shoulder and hamstring ailments, and he appears to have an uphill battle to play today, source said. A chance, but not a great one.". This should solidify Jaylen Waddle as a top play this week. It also increases Mike Gesicki's role in this offense. Gesicki is a top 3 option at tight end this week.

Sunday Morning Update #2 11:52 EST

Not much on the injury front, the only real news is that Rhamondre Stevenson is going to miss this week which was somewhat surprising. Sterling Shepard is also out.

Damien Harris becomes more intriguing, but sticking with the original lineup.

• QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $8,800
• RB Darrell Williams, KC, $6,700
• RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $5,900
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $9,000
• WR Chris Godwin, TB, $6,700
• WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA, $5,900
• TE Ricky Seals-Jones, WAS, $5,400
• Flex RB Darrell Henderson, LAR, $8000
• TD NY Giants, $3,600

Let me know your thoughts on the article knotts@footballguys.com or via Twitter

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• LA Rams (vs Detroit) 32.75 points
• Arizona (vs Houston) 32.75 points
• Kansas City (at Tennessee) 31.75 points
• Tampa Bay (vs Chicago) 29.5 points
• Green Bay (vs Washington) 28.75 points

Week 6 Recap

Week 6 was a tough week for the primary lineup.

What went right:

• Khalil Herbert was a strong play with 97 yards and a touchdown this past week.
• Darrell Henderson continues to produce for the Rams as he scored a touchdown for the second-straight week.

What went wrong:

• Davante Adams struggled in what ended up being a weird game this past week against Chicago. The Packers only threw for 194 yards and while Adams had 89 of them, not scoring a touchdown at his price tag is difficult to overcome.
• Lamar Jackson is a tough one to say that we got wrong, but the result doesn’t lie. If you could tell me that the Ravens would score 34 points, we all would take Jackson every single time. However, Jackson ended up with just 13.8 points this past week in large part of the Ravens having three rushing touchdowns to Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray, and LeVeon Bell.
• Khalil Herbert had a touchdown called back on quite possibly the worst holding call that I’ve ever seen in professional football.
• Michael Pittman Jr- This one is tough because the signs were obvious. With the return of T.Y. Hilton, it should have caused the swap off of Pittman to another player. While T.Y. Hilton was the problem, game script was also a problem as Houston never showed up in this game scoring just 3 points which limited the passing upside for Indianapolis.

CASH GAME TIP WEEK 7- Late Swapping is Incredibly Important

Understanding your lineup compared to your competition is absolutely critical. At 3:40PM EST I tweeted out the following which completely saved my week from a losing week to a winning week.

“If you're behind in a H2H or 50/50, I would suggest moving off of Kareem Hunt. Pivot up to DeAndre Hopkins (if you have $300) on FanDuel or down to CeeDee Lamb. DraftKings is a bit harder, but could go Courtland Sutton.”

On a slate where there were more things that went wrong than went right, you have to look at your contests. Are you blocked by your opponent when there is a highly rostered player such as Kareem Hunt? If you are, then there is zero reason to have the overlap in players. Even if it is not a 1 for 1 block meaning you both have 3 players left, but you feel strongly that your opponent has one player the same as you, it is worth switching off if you can find an adequate replacement with upside.

The reality of this game is that we are dealing with projections that are often within 1-2 points of each other and the range of outcomes in terms of actual performance is quite wide for all players. If you are blocked by your opponent, your winning percentage is 0%, and while switching off to another player may not save your week most weeks, even if it saves 1-2 weeks per year, it is well worth doing.

INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?

Damien Williams is still questionable with Covid, and we likely won’t know his status until Sunday. However, even if he doesn’t go, it’s not a great spot for Khalil Herbert who is facing the top run defense in the NFL in Tampa Bay.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out once again this week. This should propel Darrell Williams to be one of the most popular players on FanDuel this week. His price is up at $6.7k which is not ideal, but for a team that has a projected total of 31.75 points, he is very intriguing this week.

Saquon Barkley will miss this week with an ankle injury. Devonta Booker will get the start for the Giants. Booker is going to be popular simply because he’s the most reliable running back under $6k on this slate. The problem is Booker is just not a great running back as he’s averaging an abysmal 3.0 yards-per-carry on the year.

Tyreek Hill looks like he will be fine but is questionable with a quad injury. To take Hill at that price, you really need him to be 100% as he was only on the field for 57% of the snaps last week.

Antonio Brown will miss this week with an ankle injury. This will propel Chris Godwin up to what should be a must play cash game play this week.

The Giants wide receivers are banged up. Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney are both out this week. While the Giants are expected to get Darius Slayton back, it does make Sterling Shepard a potential option as the Giants should be in a competitive game in Carolina.

Where to save money?

On a week where there are so many elite offenses on bye weeks, the amount of options that we can save money with are somewhat limited.

Quarterback Under 8k:

None-

This is a week where you are going to want to pay up for your quarterback. Taking Patrick Mahomes II, Kyler Murray, or Matthew Stafford gives a significant advantage as all three teams are projected to score over 30 points this week.

Running Back Under 7k:

Darrel Williams- $6,700

At $6,700, Williams is a near must play on FanDuel cash games this week. Williams did not look great last week against Washington, but he touched the ball 24 times including 2 touchdowns. In a game that Kansas City is expected to score 32 points, Williams is in an excellent spot to find the end zone once again this week.

James Conner- $6,400

James Conner can’t seem to get any love this season as most people look at the running back tandem with Chase Edmonds and quickly dismiss it, but he is quietly having a very productive season primarily due to his touchdown output. Over the last four weeks Conner is averaging only 14 carries, 48 yards, but has 5 touchdowns in that timeframe. With the Cardinals expected to have this game well under control, Conner should be able to find the end zone at least once in this game.

Devonta Booker- $5,800

We spoke a little bit about Booker earlier in the article and it is a play that makes you cringe as you click on the button. Booker is averaging just 3.0 yards-per-carry on the year as the Giants have not been able to get a run game going. The matchup is one that should be turning towards favorable as the Panthers started out the year incredible on defense, but that has quickly subsided over the last few weeks now that they are playing better competition.

Miles Sanders- $5,900

The Eagles Offensive Coordinator Shane Steichen came out this week and said that the Eagles need to get Miles Sanders going. We started to see signs of this last week, in which Sanders had 56 yards on just 9 carries last week against the vaunted Tampa Bay defense.

The issue with Sanders is that his floor is incredibly low as we saw earlier this season in which he had just two carries against Dallas and is averaging just 12.5 touches per game. If we believe Shane Steichen in what should be a competitive game against Las Vegas, Miles Sanders could be in a really good spot this week as he is a very talented back when he is given the opportunity, but he does come with some risks and a lower-than-average touchdown upside due to the rushing ability of Jalen Hurts

Wide Receiver Under 6k

Jaylen Waddle- $5,900

Can Jaylen Waddle continue to expand his role after his breakout week last week in which he caught 10 passes for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns. All three of Waddle’s touchdowns on the year have come with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. While DeVante Parker looks like he should be able to return this week, the Dolphins are in a must win game this week and including to try to build off of the Waddle breakout seems to be the best path forward.

Jakobi Meyers-$5,700

There are not many wide receivers in this range who are as consistent as Jakobi Meyers this season. Meyers has four receptions or more in each of his six games this season while averaging 58 yards per game. If there is a drawback it is that he has not scored a touchdown in his three NFL seasons. The team seems well aware of this fact as the sideline went crazy when he scored last week only for it to be called back due to penalty.

Tight End Under 6k

Dallas Goedert- $5,900

With Zach Ertz being traded to Arizona, the tight end position should be all Goedert’s this week. Goedert has struggled so far this season as he has just 15 receptions on 19 targets, but the tight ends still play a significant role in this offense as they have 50 targets to tight ends on the season. Goedert should be in line for a significant volume increase this week as if he can accumulate a majority of Ertz’ former targets, he is looking at 8-9 targets in this game.

Ricky Seals-Jones- $5,400

Seals-Jones is a much better DraftKings play due to the full point PPR and lower price, but he is still intriguing on FanDuel this week. There are some indicators that should be encouraging for Seals-Jones, most notably that tight ends in this offense have made up 44% of Red Zone targets, and Seals-Jones is tied for the team lead. The problem is that Washington has only thrown the ball 16 times in the Red Zone all season which is among the lowest in the NFL. If that number can normalize this week in what should be a game that Washington is forced to throw quite a bit, then Seals-Jones could find the end-zone for the second time this season.

Defenses Under 4k

NY Giants- $3,600

There aren’t many options under 4k this week for defense that are intriguing, but if you want to spend down this week, the Giants are likely the team you want to target. Sam Darnold after a hot start to the season is starting to regress back to the player he was in New York. Darnold has now thrown six interceptions over the last three games while being sacked an astounding 12 times during that same time period. The Giants defense is not a great one, but neither is Philadelphia or Dallas both of which were in the three game run for Darnold.

KEY CASH CORE

Patrick Mahomes II- $8,800

This week came down to Patrick Mahomes II, Kyler Murray, and Matthew Stafford. The key decision here was to take a quarterback in a game that should be competitive throughout, compared to a game where both Arizona and LA Rams have it easily in hand and could lead to more of a running approach for those teams. For Mahomes, he’s taking on a Titans secondary that allowed 353 yards and 3 touchdowns last week to Josh Allen and the Bills and are allowing the 5^th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the season.

Chris Godwin- $6,700

With no Antonio Brown this week, Chris Godwin is going to step up this week after what has largely been a disappointing season for the Buccaneers high-powered offense. After scoring in his first two games of the season, Godwin has not scored over his last four games and is averaging just 60 yards receiving per game. Godwin is in a prime position this week as he will be facing Xavier Crawford who is a former 6^th-round pick and a converted safety that is sliding down to the slot corner for this game due to the Bears having trouble with the slot corner as Duke Shelley has been one of the worst in the NFL.

Darrell Henderson- $8,000

If you told us at the beginning of the season that we would be paying $8,000 for Darrell Henderson we would not have believed you, but here we are. The Rams are going to be able to move the ball however they want this week against the Lions and Darrell Henderson likely will be in line to score at least one touchdown this week if not multiple. Henderson has been solid the last few weeks as he is averaging 83 yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game over the last three weeks. The threat of Sony Michel seems to be mitigated as Henderson had 82% of the snaps last week compared to Michel’s 18%. Detroit this season is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs as they are allowing 121 yards and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game with 50 yards receiving and 0.6 receiving touchdowns per game to the position.

LINEUPS-

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 129.3)

• QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $8,800
• RB Darrell Williams, KC, $6,700
• RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $5,900
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $9,000
• WR Chris Godwin, TB, $6,700
• WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA, $5,900
• TE Ricky Seals-Jones, WAS, $5,400
• Flex RB Darrell Henderson, LAR, $8000
• TD NY Giants, $3,600

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Footballguys Optimal Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 132.4)

• QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $8,800
• RB Darrell Williams, KC, $6,700
• RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $7,300
• WR A.J. Brown, TEN, $7,000
• WR Chris Godwin, TB, $6,700
• WR Mike Evans, TB, $7,100
• TE Kyle Pitts, ATL, $6,100
• Flex RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $5,900
• TD Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $4,400

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – Chiefs/Titans Small GPP Stack (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 131.7)

• QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $8,800
• RB Darrell Williams, KC, $6,700
• RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $5,900
• WR A.J. Brown, TEN, $7,000
• WR Chris Godwin, TB, $6,700
• WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA, $5,900
• TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,200
• Flex RB Joe Mixon, Cin, $7,200
• TD New York Giants

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