Cracking FanDuel Week 5

Photo: USA Today Sports

Sunday Morning Update

Check back in starting at 11:00 AM EST for updates to this lineup and thoughts on news that breaks on Sunday Morning.

Sunday Morning Update: 10:47 AM EST

At this point in the morning, it's been relatively quiet. The only news that we are really waiting for is Dalvin Cook. If he were to be out, Alexander Mattison shoots up to a must play this week.

DeVante Parker is out, which will help Jaylen Waddle this week and solidifies that play.

Sunday Morning Update: 11:49 AM EST

Dalvin Cook is inactive. Alexander Mattison becomes a top play.

Primary Cash Lineup- FBG Projection 127.6

• QB Trey Lance, SF, $6,900
• RB Derrick Henry, TEN, $10,400
• RB Alexander Mattison, MIN, $6,500
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $8,200
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $7,200
• WR Jakobi Meyers, NE, $5,900
• TE Jared Cook, LAC, $5,200
• Flex RB Damien Williams, CHI, $5,800
• TD Minnesota, $3,900

Let me know your thoughts on the article knotts@footballguys.com or via Twitter

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Dallas (vs NY Giants) 29.75 points
• Minnesota(vs Detroit) 29.5 points
• Tampa Bay (vs Miami) 29 points
• Arizona (vs San Francicso) 27.5 points
• Green Bay (at Cincinnati) 27 points

Week 4 Recap

Tough week last week, for a lot of people, and this article was no different. The lineup missed the cut line in most 50/50 lineups (we’ll get to that in a minute).

What went right:

• Deebo Samuel saved the day. Deebo seemingly dominated the second-half of the 49ers-Seahawks game as he was able to find the end-zone twice while racking up 156 yards in the process.
• Jets defense paid off their value as even though they allowed 24 points in this game, they had 7 sacks which at the minimum price was good enough to justify the price tag.

What went wrong:

• Alvin Kamara was a tough one and almost put him in the “what went right” column. The process was seemingly correct for Kamara, as he had 26 carriest for 120 yards. The problem was the touchdowns as Taysom Hill ended up with two rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone which killed Kamara’s chances at reaching value.
• Russell Wilson was ok last week, but he was largely saved by a rushing touchdown. The problem was, that he was outscored by both Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts both of which were in the same price point, so while he ended up as a top-10 quarterback which was about where he was priced, he didn’t do anything to create separation on the rest of the field.
• Davante Adams was a tough one this past week. The Packers held the lead for most of the game, and with Randall Cobb catching two touchdowns it made for a tough one for Adams. He was involved, but we need to take a look at Adams going forward as he has just one touchdown on the season compared to the 20 he scored In 2020 including 12 of his last 13 games.

CASH GAME TIP WEEK 5- Play Head to Heads Over 50/50’s

If you’ve been a reader of this article for the last several years, you know how this tip goes and we are going to recycle it this week as it is an important one to touch on. Last week, if you play 50/50’s or double ups you would have lost all of your contests. However, with a head-to-head strategy, it is better for a week-to-week bankroll as I got extremely lucky this past week with some of my head-to-head matchups and posted a slightly positive week.

Tip from 2020 Week 1 Article

Far too often we hear how multi-entry 50/50 cut lines are higher than even the minimum cash lines for GPP’s. The real benefit of head to heads is bankroll management. Most 50/50 or double up contests especially the big one’s are going to have a similar cash line across the board. What this ultimately means is that your lineup is either going to win everything or lose everything, so if you are in the 49^th percentile of lineups you will lose 100% of your entries for those contests. Conversely if you have a large enough sample size on head to heads you will only lose maybe 5-10% of your bankroll. From a sample size standpoint, my recommendation is to have at least 10-20 head to heads even if that means you’re playing $1 games.

If you are going to do anything to help your ROI this year, start tracking your opponents. Create a spreadsheet or a piece of paper and really evaluate the rosters of the people that you are facing. The one piece of advice is that people do not spend enough time evaluating who they are facing, but instead just blindly enter contests. The one thing is that don’t just look at the amount of points your opponent scores, but instead look at the roster construction. If it is a solid construction you may not want to play that opponent each week and have to rely on a coin flip. Instead, try to find people who build fundamentally different rosters than you, maybe someone who makes mistakes and doesn’t play the top owned players.

If you do not want to enter head-to-head contests or don't have the bankroll to do it, the next best thing that you can enter is the largest single entry 50/50’s that you can find.

INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?

This is a week where the Sunday Morning Update is going to be critical.

Joe Mixon looks like he is doubtful to go this week after not practicing all week. He’s still listed as questionable, so something to continue to monitor as the week progresses. If Mixon is not able to go, Samaje Perine is in line for a vast majority of the work, and should be in a decent spot this week, but the only question is whether we have to use him as he is priced up compared to other sites at $5,600.

Jimmy Garoppolo is out this week with a calf injury. Trey Lance will get his first start in his career and is a very intriguing option this week at $6,900. Lance was somewhat shaky this past week as he completed just 50% of his passes, and was propped up by a long touchdown to Deebo Samuel. The good thing about Lance is that he ran the ball 7 times for 41 yards in just a half of play. If Lance can keep the run-first mentality, at $6,900 he is in a wonderful spot this week.

David Montgomery is going to miss this week with a knee injury. Damien Williams will see the start for Chicago. Williams is an intriguing option this week as it seems as if he is getting a lack of buzz because he opted out of the 2020 season. In 2019, in games that Williams had 12 carries or more, Williams averaged 20.5 FanDuel points across those 8 games, with his low being 12.4 points. At just $5,800 he’s a very intriguing option on a slate where there are plenty of value options.

Christian McCaffrey is doubtful this week. Chuba Hubbard will once again get the start, and is intriguing due to the matchup being a wonderful one as the Eagles have allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL. The issue for Hubbard, is that Sam Darnold has been a touchdown vulture rushing this season, as Darnold has five rushing touchdowns through the first four games.

George Kittle was downgraded to doubtful on Friday. This makes the tight end position even more difficult than it already was with a priced up Darren Waller who has struggled for the price, no Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson is questionable and in a tough matchup. Kittle’s injury should help Deebo Samuel who is extremely expensive this week at $7,700.

Where to Spend at Running Back?

The big question once again is what to do with Derrick Henry. His price has actually increased by $200 since last week, which is interesting. In terms of reaching target value, Henry technically did not reach value with 24.7 points. The thing that we always have to consider however is the opportunity cost as if you’re taking another player such as Alvin Kamara who also did not reach value, then regardless of what that “target” score is, it doesn’t really matter.

Derrick Henry $10,400: Tough Call

$10,400 is a crazy price to pay for any running back. We said it last week, and we will say it again this week, but an absolute minimum, you’re expecting something like last week’s performance which was 177 yards and a touchdown, and in a normal week that might not be good enough to reach value. In a tournament, it probably is not optimal to take Henry, but let’s explore whether we should take him in a cash game setting.

What’s interesting is Derrick Henry’s stat lines historically have been unbelievable against Jacksonville the second time that he has faced them each season. However, in his first meetings of the year, he has not eclipsed 11.1 fantasy points and has just one touchdown in those three games.

So, what do we do here? This one is entirely up to your comfort level. The math tells you to sit Henry this week, but I can’t get a lineup that I’m comfortable with that justifies sitting Henry. It does allow you to go up to Justin Jefferson who is the #2 overall wide receiver on the board this week, but it seems like fading is more of a GPP play. We are going to put lineups for both here, as it is a critical decision, but the primary lineup will be with Henry included.

Leonard Fournette: $6,400 Sit

Do we really trust Leonard Fournette after one good game in a rain soaked Gillette Stadium where the Patriots were selling out to stop the pass? There’s a lot of excitement due to the snap count of Fournette seeing 82% of the snaps. The problem is while we haven’t seen 82% during his stint in Tampa Bay, he was on the field 65% of the snaps in Week 1 in which he had 8.4 FanDuel points.

Fournette leads the team in Red Zone touches, and does not have a touchdown this season. Could it lead to regression coming? Possibly, but at $6,400, this is $200 less than Antonio Gibson, and $100 less than Damien Harris, both who have more defined roles than Fournette. Fournette has the same odds as Ronald Jones II to score a touchdown this week which is not a great sign for the running back.

If Gio Bernard is active, there is no way you can consider Leonard Fournette this week. He’s a fine option if you want to take a chance as if he sees 23 touches again this week and is able to find the end zone for the first time this season, he can massively pay off his salary. However, the floor for Fournette is extremely low in this one, so take at your own risk.

Damien Williams- $5,800- Start

We spoke a little bit about it earlier in the injury section, but Damien Williams is a fantastic play this week. Repeating ourselves a little bit, Williams is averaging 20.5 fantasy points in games where he had 12 or more carries over his last 8 games. Going up against a Raiders team that is a middle of the road defense, Williams is in a big time spot this week to easily fill in for Montgomery at a great price.

Austin Ekeler: $7,700- Safe Play, Low Upside

Ekeler is going to be a strong cash game play after his dominant performance on Monday against the Raiders. However, asking Ekeler to repeat that performance is something that we need to be extremely cautious on. The two touchdown performance was Ekeler’s first two touchdown game in 20 games, his 100-yard rushing was his first in 19 games, and he is facing one of the league’s best defenses in Cleveland. The Browns are third in the NFL in rushing yards allowed at just 66 yards per game as their defensive line investment has paid off for them so far this season.

What you get out of Ekeler is consistent usage. He may not have the extremely high upside we saw on Monday, but he has topped 100 yards in three of his four games this season, and has scored a touchdown in three of the four games this year. The problem here is

Ezekiel Elliott: $8,000- Start if you need savings off of Kamara

We loved Elliott last week, but just couldn’t make it work with the rest of the lineup that we liked. That was a mistake that we are not going to make this week. Elliott is seeing the volume that you want to see out of a top-5 running back as he has averaged 17.7 carries-per-game over his last three outings including a dominant performance last week for 162 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Panthers who were one of the league’s best defenses heading into this game. This week, Elliott gets to face the Giants who are allowing 123 yards-per-game, and have allowed two running backs to top 100 yards so far this year.

Alvin Kamara: $8,600- Start if you can

Whether you can go up to Ezekiel Elliott or Alvin Kamara is something that if you can find the extra $600, you should look strongly at Kamara. Yes, Kamara burned a lot of people last week due to the lack of touchdowns, but at $8,600, the price is incredibly intriguing this week. Kamara over his last two games has touched the ball 53 times which is second to only Derrick Henry. The matchup is a completely neutral one against Washington, but the only concern people will have this week is Taysom Hill vulturing two touchdowns last week from Kamara. If Kamara scores those two touchdowns, his price is in the mid-9k’s right now. Kamara is tied for 7^th ahead of Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, Najee Harris (who is 51^st), and many more. The touchdowns will come for Kamara it’s only a matter of time.

Going with: Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Damien Williams

KEY CASH CORE

Jakobi Meyers- $5,900

Mac Jones has found his top target in Jakobi Meyers. Jones has all but locked in on Meyers as he has 26 targets over the last two weeks, and to get a wide receiver at sub-6k with that volume is too interesting to pass up. The Patriots have a very winnable game this week, and should continue to utilize Meyers as they look to continue to develop Jones.

Trey Lance- $6,900

In order to pay for Derrick Henry, we need to save some money elsewhere. The answer is Trey Lance this week. This is a player who is still developing, and while the game film from last week did not look great, he is going to make plays that statistically should get there when it is all said and done. In one half, Lance ran the ball 7 times last week, so if he can run the ball 10+ times in a full game, he is in the Jalen Hurts/Lamar Jackson territory when it comes to running the ball.

Davante Adams- $8,200

We all know the struggles for Adams thus far this year, as his only touchdown this season came in a Sunday Night game that was not on the main slate. The reality here is Adams still scored 20 touchdowns in the 2020 season, so there should be some level of positive regression coming for the Packers receiver. Adams is 6^th in the NFL in Red Zone targets with 9, and has just 1 touchdown. Compare that to someone like Cooper Kupp who has 9 targets and 5 touchdowns. The matchup against Cincinnati is a neutral one, but with no Jaire Alexander in the Packers secondary, this could be a game where they need Adams to step up more than ever in what could be a shootout of a game.

LINEUPS-

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 124.8)

• QB Trey Lance, SF, $6,900
• RB Derrick Henry, TEN, $10,400
• RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,600
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $8,200
• WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA, $5,400
• WR Jakobi Meyers, NE, $5,900
• TE Jared Cook, LAC, $5,200
• Flex RB Damien Williams, CHI, $5,800
• TD Philadelphia, $3,500

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Balanced Lineup (Secondary Cash if comfortable not using Henry) (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 126.7)

• QB Trey Lance, SF, $6,900
• RB Austin Ekeler, LAC, $7,700
• RB Damien Williams, CHI, $5,800
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $8,200
• WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $8,000
• WR Jakobi Meyers, NE, $5,900
• TE Mike Gesicki, MIA, $5,600
• Flex RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL, $8,000
• TD Minnesota, $3,900

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – NY Giants, Dallas Satck- GPP (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 127.9)

• QB Daniel Jones, NYG, $7,400
• RB Austin Ekeler, LAC, $7,700
• RB Damien Williams, CHI, $5,800
• WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $6,900
• WR Kenny Golladay, NYG, $6,200
• WR Jacobi Meyers, NE, $5,900
• TE Darren Waller, LV, $7,400
• Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,600
• TD Minnesota, $3,900

Rankings:

We are trying something different here this week. Let me know your thoughts on whether we should go back to the color coded charts, or if you prefer the rankings. These rankings are intended to be priority for playing a player within cash game formats.

Quarterback:

1) Trey Lance
2) Daniel Jones
3) Kyler Murray
4) Joe Burrow

Running Back:

1) Damien Williams
2) Derrick Henry
3) Alvin Kamara
4) Ezekiel Elliott
5) Austin Ekeler
6) Damien Harris
7) James Robinson
8) Najee Harris
9) Leonard Fournette
10) Chase Edmonds

Wide Receiver:

1) Davante Adams
2) Jakobi Meyers
3) Justin Jefferson
4) CeeDee Lamb
5) Kenny Golladay
6) Keenan Allen
7) D.J. Moore
8) Terry McLaurin
9) Amari Cooper
10) A.J. Brown

Tight End:

1) Darren Waller
2) Mike Gesicki
3) Jared Cook
4) Evan Engram
5) T.J. Hockenson
6) Zach Ertz

Defense:

1) New England
2) Chicago
3) Minnesota
4) Denver