Rookie Roundup 10: TD Dynasty Draft Part 2

Photo: USA Today Sports

Recall that in our last installment, we went through the first two rounds of a rookie draft in a Footballguys dynasty league, hoping to help readers understand which players are rising and falling in early rookie drafts. Today, we’ll cover rounds 3-5 and the trades that took place as we progressed. My friend and fellow Footballguy Justin Howe will be joining me today to break down the picks from each round.

Here is how my team is looking through the first two rounds:

As a reminder, here are the scoring and settings highlights from this league:

• 24-man rosters
• Team defenses
• One point per reception for all positions except tight end
• Tight end gets one and a half points per reception
• Rookies or free agents in the pool are draftable
• Five rounds

Round 3

Daniel’s Commentary

At this point in the draft, I was looking for upside. Most of these later-round picks aren’t going to pan out anyway, so I wanted to swing for the fences and pick players that will pay off big if they should hit. I took Quintez Cephus because he fits that profile. It’s funny that he’ll share the wide receiver room with Marvin Jones because he reminds me a lot of Jones when I watch him play. Assuming Jones is open to providing him mentorship, you couldn’t ask for a better teacher, at least in terms of similar stylistics.

I thought Antonio Gibson might go off the board in the mid-second round, but Sigmund got a value by scooping him up to begin the third round. There’s a chance that Washington intends to use him much like Christian McCaffrey, which would make him an extremely valuable fantasy assett. Chase’s selection of Adam Trautman here is savvy in this TE premium format. Trautman’s play won’t blow the doors off your league, but he’s a good all-around player that could be a consistent option in the ways that Jared Cook never could. Justin, you did a nice job of taking Van Jefferson before my pick. He’s someone that I really liked after getting acquainted with his game at the Senior Bowl. If the Rams trend back toward a pass-happy offense without Gurley, I could see Jefferson being that slot guy who racks up a ton of catches and is seemingly always converting third downs.

Justin's Commentary

Like Daniel, I developed some interest in Jefferson during the pre-draft season, when he lit up Senior Bowl practice week. He’s got the floor of a slot-game PPR specialist, and he’ll open up as essentially Cooper Kupp’s direct backup. Every year there are a handful of gritty, “elbow grease” types in the draft: they won from the slot in college but hit the NFL undersized and underathletic. Like Kupp, though, Jefferson is also a big-play threat, with sturdy size and deceptive speed on the move. Besides, any wideout drafted in the top-60 should be off the board by this point, so Jefferson was a no-brainer.

Agreed, Daniel - Sigmund pulled value here in Gibson. I thought about him a round ago, though I ultimately settled for Moss, and I’ve been half-bummed about it since. Gibson could be more than productive for that bleak Washington offense - he could be transformative. It was sharp of Clayton to take Uzomah here, too, shining a light on what a weak tight end class this is. Uzomah isn’t sexy, but he’s a Week 1 starter with an outlook of 40-60 catches. That’s more to sink your teeth into than these rookies seem to offer. Most years, there are some intriguing prospects right at home in Round 3 - converted wideouts that gave us all something to think about at the Combine. Guys like Kmet and Trautman usually wouldn’t even factor into this range of the draft.

Round 4

Daniel’s Commentary

Danny Tuccitto took one of my target players in this round when he selected Harrison Bryant. I see Bryant as a tight end who might have a bright future with Cleveland, especially in light of how they’ve seemingly fallen out of love with David Njoku. Thwarted by that pick, I set my sights on Dan Arnold. Arnold began to build some red-zone rapport with Kyler Murray late last year and there is some buzz that the team really likes him. Not drafting a tight end with only run-blocking Maxx Williams on the roster was a great development for Arnold. It’s true that we haven’t seen a tight end become relevant in Arizona in quite some time. This late in the draft, however, I’m willing to bet that things will change in an offense that’s quickly becoming one of the more explosive in football. Perhaps I will get lucky and he will be this year’s Darren Waller.

Sigmund got the only rookie wide receiver remaining that I think has a chance of earning a starting spot any time soon. Still, I have concerns. I saw him at the Senior Bowl and he struggled with press coverage and appeared to be limited in his release moves. Practically all rookies need help with route-running, but he looked particularly unpolished to me. Dan’s selection of Lamical Perine is one that could pay off. Neither LeVeon Bell nor Frank Gore is likely to be in New York beyond this year. Perine isn’t an exceptionally speedy back, but he has the prototypical build to play the position. While watching him this spring, I felt like he had the skill set and decision-making to develop into a competent NFL runner.

Justin's Commentary

I feel fortunate Dallas fell to me here. McFarland was my target, but with a clear path to rookie touches, I knew he wouldn’t hold through seven picks. (Interestingly - to me at least - my second choice was Gandy-Golden, who’d been sniped by Sigmund even sooner. Drafting against Sigmund can be frustrating. Your sneaky guys don’t slip through too often.) Dallas was an underrated prospect who has drawn Duke Johnson Jr comparisons, and he walks into a great situation for rookie relevance. The Seahawks want to pound the ball relentlessly, but are snakebitten in the backfield; Marshawn Lynch is looking better than 50/50 to take some carries.

The round closed out in style with a handful of shrewd picks in a row. Johnson doesn’t offer a ton of upside but is a cheap Justin Jefferson arbitrage with plenty of value in Round 4. Bowden is a coach’s dream, now playing for a coach who dreams a lot, and he’s got a high ceiling for usage right off the bat. It seems the Raiders are still looking for reinforcements on passing downs - not a great sign for Josh Jacobs - and Bowden could be a big rookie contributor. Daniel was smart to target Arnold, who always dazzled in Saints camp but could never beat out Josh Hill for the backup job.

Love shouldn’t have lasted this long, of course. There were just enough of us with specific positions elsewhere to fill, and he wound up slipping rather far. Regardless of his outlook, I’m sure at least half of us would’ve loved to scoop him at the tail end of Round 4, and Andy was in the position to take advantage. It just needs to be said, in bold lettering, that Love is more valuable overall than most of the shot-in-the-dark picks we made here.

Round 5

Daniel’s Commentary

I wanted to explore improving my backup quarterback position in this round. I did not have a starter other than Patrick Mahomes II on my roster. Unfortunately, Justin had the same idea and took Marcus Mariota before my pick. I could see Mariota beating out Carr for the job and at some point having a mini-career resurgence in Las Vegas. This is all contingent on if he can regain his confidence and stay healthy, but there are always a lot of ifs with the guys taken in this round. Instead, I had to settle for another potential-but-less-likely quarterback competition between Jake Fromm and Josh Allen. I think Fromm is already a better passer now than Josh Allen will ever be. He’s not ever going to have the rushing ability and fantasy upside of Allen, but that won’t matter if Allen can’t hold his job long-term. Allen is reckless with his body at times, so I could also envision Fromm earning his shot from an injury situation.

There’s not much to see in this round, but Micheal Warren is the pick that caught my attention. He’s an interior runner with both the size and physical dimensions to play the role. The closest thing that Philadelphia has to that type of runner on the roster is Boston Scott. Miles Sanders still has time to earn a three-down role, but if he doesn’t develop as hoped, Warren would become much more interesting.

Justin's Commentary

Sigmund strikes again. Hill was buried way down the software’s rankings, so there was a chance he’d slip everyone’s radar, but no dice. Once Love, Hill, Hurts, and Peoples-Jones came off the board, Mariota looked like the only real option here. Daniel is right - he’s got a clear path to 2020 starts, which is more than I can say for any of the late-round rookies still available.

And that’s before factoring in the theoretical upside in play for the former No. 2 pick.

On second thought: kudos to Adam for adding Bonnafon with this shot-in-the-dark pick. Maybe I should’ve thought more about him. The Panthers added nothing behind Christian McCaffrey, who took on a staggering 403 touches last year. Talk about being one degree removed from a powerful workhorse role.

Daniel, I agree that Fromm was the right stab at a usable 2020 fantasy quarterback. Allen is a mountain of a man, but still a magnet for contact and still used a ton on the goal line (why?!). Fromm could conceivably find himself leading a top-three AFC team as a rookie, if only for a stretch. And long-term, of course, there’s no guarantee the team has seen enough to commit to a second Allen contract in two years.

Draft Superlatives

Biggest draft surprise:

Daniel: For me, I believe it was seeing Dan Hindery take DeAndre Swift at 1.03 with CeeDee Lamb and J.K. Dobbins on the board. Swift isn’t an awful player, but I think Dobbins and Lamb found better landing spots and are just more talented. I really don’t think Matt Patricia will make it another year and there’s always the uncertainty of what will happen to the skill position players when a new regime with a new philosophy comes to town. I’m fine with taking that kind of risk in a later round for a talented player. I took Quintez Cephas with my third-round pick, after all. I just am not a big fan of using a premium pick on a player who landed in an unstable situation.

Justin: I was surprised to see the run on rookie quarterbacks in Round 2. Generally speaking, I need a good reason to burn a premium pick on a rookie passer. Even a strong prospect, after all, will likely flounder for a few years as a QB2 on a bad team. It’s just not a position I chase in rookie drafts since there are so many proven veterans starting into their mid-30s. And I don’t see a standout x-factor - one that hints at similar QB1 upside - in any of these three, at least in the early going. Burrow has enjoyed just a single season of success, Tagovailoa likely won’t start early on, and Herbert is exceptionally raw for a four-year starter. And none of them offer that juicy running boost with which some rookies enter the league. I understand why these Footballguys took the plunges, but I do think some upside got left on the table.

The steal of the draft:

Daniel: Sigmund may have earned it by taking Antonio Gibson in the early portion of the third round. Washington may be a shaky organization, but I trust Ron Rivera when he says they want to put Gibson into a McCaffery type of role. Derrius Guice is an exceptional runner, but continual knee issues and being drafted by a different regime make him unlikely to be counted on at this point.

Justin: Again, Jordan Love, a first-round quarterback slotting in behind a volatile, 36-year-old starter, qualifies as the biggest steal here. Joe Burrow for a second versus Love for a late fourth? That’s the much sharper play. It was also a surprise to see Anthony McFarland fall into Round 4. He boasts potential for rookie touches in a Ben Roethlisberger offense, and his long-term outlook is simply too sexy for so late a pick. Enjoy the value, Chase.

The second-rounder or later pick who is most likely to be worth a mid-to-early-first-round pick next year:

Daniel: A.J. Dillion would be my first pick, but I already talked about him in my first article. I would select Zack Moss as a likely second candidate for all the reasons Justin outlined in our first piece. I just don’t think Devin Singletary has the physical attributes to hang in the league. He has wonderful vision to compensate, but that will only take him so far. Moss really is the more complete player of the two and could take over a three-down role.

Justin: I have to agree, Daniel, that Dillon is the call here. Frankly, I think he’s set up to enter 2021 as a clear-cut RB2 at worst. Aaron Jones is a volatile starter - he has long struggled with consistency and conditioning - and is entering the final year of his deal. He’ll likely be paid well next offseason, and the Packers are hoping for Dillon to quickly make him expendable. Dillon could share the load fairly evenly as a rookie, then walk into a 300-carry role for run-obsessed coach Matt LaFleur next season.

Most likely cut candidates on your team:

Daniel: Will Grier, Josh Rosen, and Richie James are the most unlikely to still be on my roster by the beginning of the season. Josh Rosen and Will Grier currently have no path to a starting opportunity and just can’t be held very long in this short-bench format. James is a talented player, but recent selections of Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk show us that San Francisco doesn’t seem to value James the same way that I do.

Justin: Andy Dalton didn’t find a starting job on his release, and I certainly don’t need five quarterbacks, so he’ll be gone first. I’m still a little shallow at running back, but Kalen Ballage looks like a painfully weak prospect and a drain on my roster. I’m fine hoarding all of these B-list receiver prospects, but there’s no use here for Danny Amendola. He and KeeSean Johnson may not last long. At tight end, Ricky Seals-Jones has run out of lives at this point. There’s no way I’ll carry him as a Travis Kelce handcuff.

Next moves for your team:

Daniel: I feel good at every other position except tight end and quarterback. I really need to explore the trade market and see if I can make some upgrades there, even if I have to trade away some depth at other positions to make it happen.

Justin: My tight end slots look weak, though I’m a big believer in Ian Thomas. He and Eric Ebron can hold down the fort. So, my attention will be focused on building depth at RB, where I only have two likely Week 1 starters on the roster. I’m severely bloated at quarterback and wide receiver, so I’ll have to dip into those accounts to shore things up.

Final Roster:

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