Guiding DFS Tournament Principles
There are a number of strategies that are key to winnings large-field tournaments on FanDuel. First, we need to identify the “good chalk” — the popular plays who we want to build our lineups around. Second, we need to identify the less-popular plays who still have similar upside to the most popular players at their position. Third, we need to decide which young breakout candidates to target. Lastly, we need to add some positive correlations to our rosters by choosing which games are best to stack.
Every week, we will talk about these principles and identify the top targets in each category. These players will be listed below by category along with their projected popularity and then broken down in more depth in the position-by-position breakdowns in the following section.
1. Identify the good chalk
Our whole lineup should not be sub-5% rostered guys. Popular plays each week are usually popular for a reason, and we always need to remember that the number one goal is to score as many points as possible. We do not want to get too cute and build our entire rosters around longer shot plays.
The chalk is often especially attractive at running back. Volume is key, and we usually know in advance which running backs are likely to see 20+ touches. We want to build our lineups around those running backs, especially on FanDuel where it is harder to get lucky with low-volume receiving backs due to the 0.5 PPR scoring.
The following players are worth considering as core lineup pieces despite their popularity this week. Please note, the projected percent-rostered numbers listed in parentheses are calculated by Devin Knotts and updated daily throughout the week. Please check here for Devin’s latest up-to-the minute projections.
Week 10 Review
The best recommendation we made last week was to fade Mike Davis and Aaron Jones as bad chalk. As predicted, Kyler Murray was again the good kind of chalk. Alvin Kamara came through in a big way as a relatively chalky running back. Stefon Diggs (WR6) was fine but overall, Week 10 ended up being a week where contrarian plays were rewarded because most of the chalk did not. hit.
Week 11 good chalk
Taysom Hill should probably just be a lock-button play in 100% of your lineups given the fact he is priced at $4,500 and listed as a tight end.
Dalvin Cook is expensive ($10,500) but is hard to fade this week given his crazy volume and huge touchdown expectation.
IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT TAYSOM HILL ON FANDUEL
Taysom Hill is the Saints starting quarterback this week. FanDuel lists Hill as a $4500 tight end. Get him in your FanDuel lineups! We are experiencing a FanDuel error with our lineup building tools where Hill doesn't show up as a tight end. As a workaround, lock in a different $4500 tight end in our tools, like Kyle Rudolph, to build your lineups. We appologize for this inconvenience.
2. Build uniqueness without sacrificing too much upside or floor.
We know that we do not want to avoid the chalky plays entirely. However, we also do not want to have lineups that are too chalky. Ideally, we want to have at least two sub-5% players in every lineup to increase our chances of placing highly in large-field tournaments. The key is to do so without sacrificing too much upside. Game theory demands we consider what our competitors are doing and what the majority of the rosters we are competing with will look like.
The easiest way to get the best of both worlds (high upside on unpopular plays) is to target top players in what are perceived to be difficult matchups. The crowd can sometimes get too carried away with using weekly matchups to make their roster decisions. This gives savvy players an opportunity to roster top talents with similar fantasy projections to the chalk at a fraction of the popularity. If you hit on the right lower-rostered player, you quickly separate yourself from the pack and give yourself a chance to win the big money.
Week 10 Review
This was a great week to make some contrarian moves. Going from chalky WR1s like Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs to the WR2s on the same teams paid off, with Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Cole Beasley finishing as the top two wide receivers. Tom Brady was the week’s top quarterback at relatively low popularity.
Week 11 Under the Radar
Kirk Cousins (4%) is a nice contrarian play with most of the field on Dalvin Cook instead.
Marques Valdez-Scantling (1%) is likely to go overlooked if Davante Adams is active.
3. Show up to the party early
The surest path to low-priced upside is through talented young players who have yet to breakout. We need to be aggressive in rostering rookies and second-year players before they become proven, popular, and expensive. In large tournaments, these are the types of opportunities we must leverage to get an edge on the field. In the long run, it is better to risk jumping the gun sometimes as opposed to being too conservative and consistently missing out on breakout games from future stars.
Week 10 Review
D’Andre Swift ended up being one of the better plays on the slate, finally moving into a true workhorse role and producing 23.4 fantasy points. Young Steelers wide receivers Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool both finished as Top 10 wide receivers. Dolphins rookie running back Salvon Ahmed ended up being one of the top point per dollar plays on the slate in his first start.
Week 11 Breakout Targets
P.J. Walker is likely to make his first career NFL start. He averaged over 20 rushing yards per game in the XFL while throwing 3.0 touchdowns per game.
K.J. Hamler is explosive and has seen 10 targets in back-to-back games. At some point soon, he is going to get loose and take one to the house.
4. Stack to win
Stacking is a common strategy for good reason. If you are not adding strong correlations to your rosters, you are making life extra difficult. Stacking increases your odds of the winning a large-field tournament because if you pick the correct games to target, you can land on a group of players who all hit their ceilings in the same week because of a positive game environment.
The best way to build correlated lineups is to stack your quarterback with one or two of his top pass catchers while also rostering one of the top offensive threats from the opposing team. We call rostering an offensive player who is going against your primary quarterback stack “running it back.” If the game is a shootout, you have a great chance of finding yourself near the top of the leaderboard.
Week 10 Review
The turn back the clock stack of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski was the best stack of Week 10. Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins turned into a top stack on the “Hail Murray” play to end the game against Buffalo.
Week 11 top stacks
Justin Herbert to Keenan Allen or Mike Williams should be a moderately popular option with a ton of upside.
Kirk Cousins to Justin Jefferson will be less popular than it should be with so many rosters built around Dalvin Cook.
P.J. Walker paired with Curtis Samuel is a major salary saver with legitimate upside against the Lions.
Position-by-position breakdowns
Quarterback
Injury Notes
Given the amount of injuries to key players this week and the fact this article comes out Friday morning, we are going to start each positional review with some injury notes. Adjusting to the late-breaking injury news will be one of the biggest keys to success on this slate. The biggest injury news to watch at the position is in the Detroit-Carolina matchup. Both Matthew Stafford and Teddy Bridgewater are extremely questionable. P.J. Walker($6,500) would get the start if Bridgewater is out and makes for a nice upside play given his rushing ability and the weapons at his disposal.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore ($8,400 — 16%)
Jackson has had a solid fantasy season (QB9 in FanDuel scoring) and is averaging 21.5 fantasy points per game over his last four. However, he has been nowhere near the impact player he was last season. The offensive line has had some issues and defenses are much more prepared for Jackson this season. While he is yet to recapture the 2019 magic, Jackson is a strong consideration for Week 11 lineups for a few reasons. First, the top four fantasy quarterbacks (Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, and Patrick Mahomes II) are off of the main slate. We are forced to dig a bit deeper this week with the obvious top options not available. Second, we are starting to see more of the old Jackson in recent weeks. Through the first six weeks of the season, Jackson only had 10+ carries one time. His rushing has started to pick up in recent weeks as he has had 11, 13, and 16 carries in his last three games. Over his last four outings Jackson has averaged 12.3 carries for 71.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. That is 10.2 fantasy points per game just with his legs, which helps give Jackson a very strong floor.
The matchup sets up well for Jackson to potentially have a breakout fantasy game. Tennessee ranks 31st in sacks and has had a lot of trouble generating pressure this season. The Titans have given up 300+ passing yards in back-to-back weeks, including 335 to a struggling Nick Foles in Week 9. The last time Jackson faced this defense, he threw for 365 yards and and ran for 143. Given the lack of other strong options at the position and Jackson’s manageable salary, he looks like the top quarterback option on this slate.
Justin Herbert, LA Chargers ($8,500 — 9%)
The case for playing Herbert this week is an easy one. He is the highest-scoring quarterback on the slate this season (PPG) and has a cake matchup against an awful Jets secondary. This is one we do not need to overthink. Herbert has thrown for 264+ yards in all but one of his eight starts. He has accounted for 3+ touchdowns in five of the last six weeks. Herbert has been getting it done on the ground (176 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns) and through the air (2,333 passing yards and 19 touchdowns). The Jets have given up fantasy points in bunches to opposing quarterbacks both on the ground (two rushing touchdowns to Cam Newton last week) and through the air (416 yards and 5 touchdowns to Patrick Mahomes II two weeks ago) of late. This is a spot where Herbert has both a strong floor and as high a ceiling as anyone on the slate.
Justin Herbert is averaging 291.6 passing yards and 2.4 passing TD per game this season.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 20, 2020
On Sunday, he'll face a Jets CB group consisting of: 5th round rookie Bryce Hall, undrafted rookies Lamar Jackson and Jav Guidry, recent waiver claim Corey Ballentine & Arthur Maulet.
Other Quarterbacks to Consider
| Player | Opponent | Salary | Field% | Comment |
| Cam Newton | Houston | $7,600 | 12% | Added rushing upside against soft run D |
| Alex Smith | Cincinnati | $6,600 | 8% | Back-to-back 300-yard passing games |
| Deshaun Watson | New England | $7,700 | 12% | Watson is the top sub-8K passer on the slate |
| Kirk Cousins | Dallas | $7,100 | 5% | Strong contrarian play with the field on the Cook |
Running Back
Injury Notes
This is the position where we need to keep a very close eye on injury expectations all the way up until kickoff on Sunday. It looked like D’Andre Swift was going to be one of the chalkiest plays on the entire slate after a breakout Week 10 performance. However, he unexpectedly entered the league concussion protocol and did not practice on Thursday. Assuming he is out, Adrian Peterson instantly becomes one of the better value plays on the slate in a prime matchup against Carolina.
Among the other spots we need to keep a very close eye on is the situation in New Orleans. While Alvin Kamara seems likely to play, he is dealing with a foot injury and it is possible he will not see his usual workload. This is a spot where Latavius Murray could break the slate if he gets the majority of the touches.
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota ($10,500 — 46%)
We will not spend too many words extolling the virtues of of playing Dalvin Cook this week since they should be clear. Since returning to the lineup in Week 8, Cook has averaged a ridiculously high 30 touches per game. Over this stretch he is averaging 197 total yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game. Cook is the top fantasy running back in the NFL right now by a decent margin. The matchup and spot couldn’t be much better. The Vikings are touchdown favorites at home against a Dallas run defense that ranks in the bottom five of most major categories.
Antonio Gibson, Washington ($6,500 —13%)
Gibson is in an interesting timeshare with J.D. McKissick in Washington. In recent weeks, both have been able to find fantasy success at the same time. Given has averaged over 15 touches per game since Week 4 and has been the go-to option for Washington down around the goal line. Gibson has a rushing touchdown in three straight games and six of the last eight games. He also has 3+ receptions in six of the last seven games.
The Gut Check No.525: Antonio Gibson Is Raw...And That's Impressive https://t.co/NW6JTStoXq by @MattWaldman pic.twitter.com/PJQ1qKyEl1
— Footballguys News (@FBGNews) November 20, 2020
Gibson is an especially strong play if you like Washington to control the game as a narrow home favorite against the Bengals. Gibson has dominated the backfield touches when Washington has been playing from ahead while McKissick has been the go-to option when Washington is forced to try to come from behind.
Other Running Backs to Consider
| Player | Opponent | Salary | Field% | Comment |
| Kalen Ballage | NY Jets | $5,800 | 17% | Looks like the top dog for the Chargers until Ekeler returns |
| James Conner | Jacksonville | $7,000 | 17% | Could be the week he gets back on track |
| Duke Johnson Jr | New England | $6,000 | 15% | Will get another shot at lead role |
| Alvin Kamara | Atlanta | $9,700 | 27% | Prime matchup for one of league's best backs |
| Giovani Bernard | Washington | $6,300 | 12% | Expect a heavy workload filling in for Joe Mixon |
| Aaron Jones | Indianapolis | $8,200 | 10% | Jones seems to post his biggest games in overlooked spots |
| Miles Sanders | Cleveland | $7,700 | 14% | Big-play back should have heavy workload |
| Mike Davis | Detroit | $7,400 | 14% | Lead role against awful run defense |
| Latavius Murray | Atlanta | $5,000 | 1% | Murray has added upside due to potential Kamara reaggravates injury |
| Adrian Peterson | Carolina | $5,100 | 1% | If D'Andre Swift is sidelined, Peterson becomes a great bargain option |
Wide Receiver
Curtis Samuel, Carolina ($5,600 — 6%)
Samuel is potentially a two-for-one type of play this week given his backfield role in addition to his normal receiving role. Samuel has seen at least five targets each of his last four games and has averaged 5.5 catches per game over the last month. He has made emerged as a viable third option in the passing game right alongside D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson. Interestingly, Samuel has also been getting some work as a running back. He has at least three carries in each of the last three games and has had a red zone carry in four straight games. His two red zone rushing touchdowns in the last month are a big reason we should view Samuel as a high upside player on this slate. With Christian McCaffrey out and Mike Davis a little bit banged up, Samuel is both a second-string running back and starting wide receiver for the Panthers. At a very low price, he has a solid floor and a realistic path to serious upside.
Curtis Samuel has 35.3% of the Panthers' red-zone carries or targets the past three weeks.
— Jim Sannes (@JimSannes) November 18, 2020
That ranks 2nd among WRs on the main slate behind Davante Adams.
Terry McLaurin, Washington ($7,300 — 18%)
McLaurin is an elite talent who is seeing a ton of volume every week. That is a great combination and at a mid-tier price, he makes for a very strong play. McLaurin has 7+ receptions and 74+ receiving yards in each of his last frou-frou games. Over that stretch, he has also seen five red zone targets. In terms of bankable volume and expected fantasy points he is near the top of the list for all wide receivers on the slate.
The Bengals have allowed the 3rd-most touchdowns (13) to opposing wide receivers this season. Cincinnati has been decimated by injuries at the cornerback position and the problems in the secondary are exacerbated by the fact that the Bengals are in the bottom three in terms of sack rate as well. Opposing passers have had time to sit in the pocket and pick apart this vulnerable secondary. Last week, Pittsburgh’s starting wide receivers combined for 249 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay ($5,800 — 1%)
Valdes-Scantling is a strong contrarian option this week, especially if Davante Adams ends up suiting up. If Adams is active, then very few are going to roster Valdes-Scantling. Whether or not Adams plays, it is clear that his ankle is bothering him and he will not be 100%, which means that Valdes-Scantling could end up being the de facto WR1 for the Packers. Valdes-Scantling is an elite athlete who has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his young career but battled inconsistency and injuries. He is healthy now and has been making a major impact. Over the last two weeks, Valdes-Scantling has 202 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. As a dangerous deep threat, Valdes-Scantling is the perfect low-cost dart throw in tournaments. The 6’4, 206-pound playmaker ran a 4.37-second forty-yard dash at the combine a few years ago and the Colts cornerbacks do not have the speed to stay with him deep down the field.
A new Packers' Marquez Valdes-Scantling or same old MVS?: Only time will tell https://t.co/o2VO9V5Tw1 pic.twitter.com/oTaT6ydPNO
— ESPN Milwaukee (@ESPNMilwaukee) November 18, 2020
