Guiding DFS Tournament Principles

There are a number of strategies that are key to winnings large-field tournaments on FanDuel. First, we need to identify the “good chalk” — the popular plays who we want to build our lineups around. Second, we need to identify the less-popular plays who still have similar upside to the most popular players at their position. Third, we need to decide which young breakout candidates to target. Lastly, we need to add some positive correlations to our rosters by choosing which games are best to stack.

Every week, we will talk about these principles and identify the top targets in each category. These players will be listed below by category along with their projected popularity and then broken down in more depth in the position-by-position breakdowns in the following section.

1. Identify the good chalk

Our whole lineup should not be sub-5% rostered guys. Popular plays each week are usually popular for a reason and we always need to remember that the number one goal is to score as many points as possible. We do not want to get too cute and build our entire rosters around longer shot plays.

The chalk is often especially attractive at running back. Volume is key and we usually know in advance which running backs are likely to see 20+ touches. We want to build our lineups around those running backs, especially on FanDuel where it is harder to get lucky with low-volume receiving backs due to the 0.5 PPR scoring.

The following players are worth considering as core lineup pieces despite their popularity this week. Please note, the projected percent-rostered numbers listed in parentheses are calculated by Devin Knotts and updated daily throughout the week. Please check here for Devin’s latest up-to-the minute projections.

Week 7 Review

This was a good chalk week. The most popular quarterback, Kyler Murray, made the good chalk section and came through. Giovani Bernard and Jamaal Williams were popular value plays and both produced top-five numbers in a down week at running back. Davante Adams and Tyler Lockett were both popular plays at wide receiver and you did not win any Week 7 GPPs without having both of them in your lineup.

Week 8 good chalk

Jonathan Taylor (27%)

Davante Adams (23%)

Tyler Lockett (21%)

Russell Wilson (17%)

George Kittle (17%)

2. Build uniqueness without sacrificing too much upside or floor.

We know that we do not want to avoid the chalky plays entirely. However, we also do not want to have lineups that are too chalky. Ideally, we want to have at least two sub-5% players in every lineup to increase our chances of placing highly in large-field tournaments. The key is to do so without sacrificing too much upside. Game theory demands we take into account what our competitors are doing and what the majority of the rosters we are competing with will look like.

The easiest way to get the best of both worlds (high upside on unpopular plays) is to target top players in what are perceived to be difficult matchups. The crowd can sometimes get too carried away with using weekly matchups to make their roster decisions. This gives savvy players an opportunity to roster top talents with similar fantasy projections to the chalk at a fraction of the popularity. If you hit on the right lower-rostered player, you quickly separate yourself from the pack and give yourself a chance to win the big money.

Week 7 Review

It was mostly a chalk week but a couple under the radar plays still paid off. Jeff Wilson (RB1) was the inexpensive running back to play, outscoring Giovani Bernard and Jamaal Williams by a good margin. Rob Gronkowski (TE2) has flown under the radar despite a month of strong production.

Week 8 Under the Radar

Ben Roethlisberger (1%)

Diontae Johnson (4%)

Mark Andrews (4%)

3. Show up to the party early

The surest path to low-priced upside is through talented young players who have yet to breakout. We need to be aggressive in rostering rookies and second-year players before they become proven, popular, and expensive. In large tournaments, these are the types of opportunities we must leverage to get an edge on the field. In the long run, it is better to risk jumping the gun at times as opposed to being too conservative and consistently missing out on breakout games from future stars.

Week 7 Review

We listed Justin Herbert here as a guy who could continue to break out and maybe take it to a higher level. He finished QB1 last week. Diontae Johnson (WR3) is a young guy who had the first really big game of his career. He is cheap again in Week 8. Rookie tight end Harrison Bryant (TE1) was one of the best plays of the week. Not only did he produce but his low salary helped unlock a path to Davante Adams and Tyler Lockett. We listed JaMycal Hasty as a breakout possibility last week but Jeff Wilson ended up being healthy enough to start and stole the spotlight as the RB1.

Week 8 Breakout Targets

JaMycal Hasty (1%)

Darnell Mooney (4%)

Brandon Aiyuk (16%)

4. Stack to win

Stacking is a common strategy for good reason. If you are not adding strong correlations to your rosters, you are making life extra difficult. Stacking increases your odds of the winning a large-field tournament because if you pick the correct games to target, you can land on a group of players who all hit their ceilings in the same week because of a positive game environment.

The best way to build correlated lineups is to stack your quarterback with one or two of his top pass catchers while also rostering one of the top offensive threats from the opposing team. We call rostering an offensive player who is going against your primary quarterback stack “running it back.” If the game is a shootout, you have a great chance of finding yourself near the top of the leaderboard.

Week 7 Review

This was one of those rare weeks where stacking was not actually the best strategy. The four highest-scoring quarterbacks last week each scored a rushing touchdown. None of those quarterbacks played with one of the five highest-scoring wide receivers. Joe Burrow to Tyler Boyd (WR6) and Tom Brady to Scott Miller (WR7) were the closest we came. Not that you were complaining if you had Russell Wilson to Tyler Lockett, but you would have been better off with Lockett and Kyler Murray.

Week 8 top stacks

Russell Wilson with Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf

Jimmy Garoppolo with George Kittle or Brandon Aiyuk

Ben Roethlisberger with Diontae Johnson or Chase Claypool

Position-by-position breakdowns

Quarterback

Russell Wilson, Seattle ($8,700 — 16%)

Wilson looks like good chalk this week. He is yet to have a down fantasy game this season. His lowest scoring day was his 360-yard, 2-touchdown games against San Francisco. There is a good case to be made that we should just be locking in an elite quarterback like Wilson every week at the top of our FanDuel lineups given how tightly packed the salaries have been.

The injuries the Seahawks have suffered at running back could lead to Wilson shouldering a bigger portion of the rushing load. He is coming off of a season-high 84 rushing yards last week against the Cardinals. If DeeJay Dallas is the healthiest back, he is unlikely to see a lot of carries but should be a strong target out of the backfield due to his excellent receiving skills. As if you needed more reason to roster Wilson in tournaments, he also comes with two of the top stacking options of the week, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Each remains underpriced making Wilson stacks relatively affordable.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh ($7,100 — 1%)

Nobody is going to want to play Roethlisberger out of fear of the Baltimore Ravens defense. There are likely to be 15 quarterbacks on the slate more popular, which is a reason Roethlisberger is worth using as a contrarian option this week to get some leverage on the field. Roethlisberger has been solid this season, throwing at least two touchdown passes in 5-of-6 games. However, he has not had that true ceiling game we know he is capable of. With his full array of weapons healthy, Roethlsiberger has mismatches to exploit on nearly every play.

Yeah, there isn’t going to be much dink and dunk by Ben Roethlisberger this week. That means the Steelers young receivers are in the spotlight.

https://t.co/CUW5bqXhhL

— Mark Kaboly (@MarkKaboly) October 30, 2020

The matchup is worth a deeper look to determine whether it is prohibitive. The Ravens are actually allowing 20.6 FanDuel points per game. That is more than teams like the Lions and Bengals have allowed, contrary to perception. We saw Patrick Mahomes II have by far his best game of the season against this defense (40 FanDuel points) and Carson Wentz had 29.4 points against Baltimore just last week. Roethlisberger has had some huge games against the Ravens in recent years. In his last eight starts against Baltimore, Roethlisberger had a 506 passing yard game (with two touchdowns) and a 6 touchdown game (with 340 passing yards).

Other Quarterbacks to Consider

Running Back

Jamaal Williams, Green Bay ($7,000 — 9%)

Note: As long as Aaron Jones is inactive.

Last week’s chalkiest running back will likely be a little bit of a contrarian play in Week 8 due to a $2,000 price increase. With Aaron Jones out, Williams dominated the touches in the Packers backfield with 17 carries and 5 targets. Assuming Jones misses another week, Williams will again be projected for 20+ touches. Given how great the Packers offense has been this season, there is a ton of value in rostering a 20+ touch back for this team.

Jamaal Williams had a 89% snap rate in Wk 7 👀 pic.twitter.com/AVGhZhvj3s

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 29, 2020

The Packers are a 6-point home favorite in a game where weather could end up being a factor. With winds of around 20 MPH projected, this is a game that should feature more running plays and short passes (many to the backs). While that limits the appeal of the game overall (the total has dropped from 55.5 to 51), it should work as a positive for Williams. Williams should be a strong play regardless of game script because he can be a four-minute back if the Packers get out to a comfortable lead but can also serve as a high-volume pass catcher if the Packers find themselves in catchup mode.

Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati ($5,900 — 3%)

Note: Joe Mixon has yet to practice this week but is not officially out as of Friday morning. Bernard should end up more popular if Mixon is announced out.

With Joe Mixon expected to miss another week with a foot injury, Bernard is the top value on the board. He had 18 touches last week in his first game as the lead back and produced 18.1 FanDuel points (3.8 per $1000 dollars). Priced below $6,000 we do not need a monster fantasy outing from Bernard to hit GPP value. Like nearly all pieces of this Bengals offense, Bernard is underpriced given the regularity with which the Bengals find themselves in shootouts.

Tennessee has allowed at least one touchdown to opposing backs in every game this season. Paradoxically, the game script actually sets up well for Bernard. He could rack up receptions and yardage in bunches if the Bengals are playing from behind as expected (6-point home underdogs). Given this fact, Bernard is a strong “run it back” option for any Tennessee stacks.

JaMycal Hasty, San Francisco ($5,600 —1%)

Value is not easy to come by on this slate and there are a number of running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends we want to pay up for. Our best source of value at running back is likely to come from this Seattle-San Francisco game. On the Seattle side, it is unclear who will even be available as of the writing of this article (Friday morning). However, if Carlos Hyde and Chris Carson miss, DeeJay Dallas ($4,600) would be a very strong option.

On the other side, we have a lot better idea of who will be available (Hasty and Jerick McKinnon) but it remains unclear which of the backs is most likely to be featured. McKinnon has done best as an explosive change-of-pace option for the 49ers. He may remain in that role but it would not be a surprise if he was the top guy for now. Kyle Shanahan explained McKinnon’s limited usage last week by saying he wanted to give him some rest after heavy usage in some previous weeks. McKinnon has also been nursing a rib injury.

JaMycal Hasty 📈📈📈📈📈📈

Shameless plug but would love for yall to give our show, NFL Next, a spin. Streaming now on @PrimeVideo with new episodes every Tuesday. pic.twitter.com/U6qhMZBD6i

— James Koh (@JamesDKoh) October 29, 2020

While it may end up being McKinnon, it makes sense to roll the dice in GPPs on JaMycal Hasty actually filling that lead role on Sunday. In garbage time last week, Hasty looked very good (9 carries for 57 yards) and fits the same mold of guys like Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson who have put up big numbers this year in Shanahan’s offense. Seattle has been solid against opposing backs this season but has shown some weakness of late. Last week, Chase Edmonds replaced an injured Kenyan Drake and racked up 145 yards on 12 touches.

Other Running Backs to Consider

Wide Receiver

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh ($6,200 — 4%)

Johnson has played 25% or more of the offensive snaps in three games this season. In those three games, he saw a total of 38 targets (12.7 per game). All evidence points to Johnson as the clear #1 when Pittsburgh has their full complement of weapons. Given that level of usage and Johnson’s explosiveness with the ball in his hands, he is vastly underpriced despite a relatively tough matchup. The matchup combined with the small sample size of healthy games from Johnson will keep him well below the radar despite the monster performance last week (9-80-2). Roethlisberger-Johnson stacks at a combined cost of $13,300 let you do almost whatever you want with the rest of your roster.

Notable from Randy Fichtner on Diontae Johnson here:

“Diontae is as talented a player as we’ve had here.”
(by @tribjoerutter)
https://t.co/AaNkqF3X1E

— Chris Adamski (@C_AdamskiTrib) October 30, 2020

DK Metcalf, Seattle ($7,800 — 11%)

Metcalf finally had a down week with Tyler Lockett dominating the targets last week. Now, Metcalf comes into this week priced $600 higher than Tyler Lockett in a week where cap space is at a premium. He will almost certainly be less popular than he has been and could be rostered on about half as many rosters as Lockett. This is a matchup that sets up well for Metcalf. He was the clear go-to option for Seattle in both of their games against the 49ers last season. In fact, Metcalf only saw 10+ targets twice as a rookie. Both came against the 49ers, when he had 22% of his targets for the entire season in just those two games.

Darnell Mooney, Chicago ($5,200 — 4%)

If Allen Robinson misses Week 8 as expected (concussion protocol), Mooney steps into the lead role for the Bears. Even with Robinson dominating targets, Mooney has had five straight games with 5+ targets. The explosive rookie is getting volume but has yet to break loose for a big play. It is only a matter of time. At just $5,200 Mooney is worth putting into 10% of your lineups if you are multi-entering. This is they type of “early to the party” play that makes the most sense in lineups that are otherwise chalky as a way to add some differentiation to your squad.

I’m watching these routes by Darnell Mooney say to myself...man, he’s only a rookie! I just wish these could of been completed passes tho. #Bears pic.twitter.com/EWyry4FyIu

— Jarrett Payton (@paytonsun) October 28, 2020

Other Wide Receivers to Consider