All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.
Know Your Enemies
To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:
Quarterback
Quarterback roster percentages should be spread thin as usual. Top-tier signal-callers, such as Patrick Mahomes II ($7,900), Lamar Jackson ($7,500), and Kyler Murray ($7,000) will be popular but are hard to fit in alongside this week’s top running backs and pass-catchers. Look for the common construction to spend down at quarterback, where Jalen Hurts ($5,900) should lead the way after cracking the 100-yard rushing bonus in his debut as the Eagles starter last week. Mitchell Trubisky ($5,500) and Jared Goff ($6,300) will also draw consideration as matchup plays.
Pivot Points: The Titans have the highest implied team total on the slate, making Ryan Tannehill ($6,700) a leverage play against Derrick Henry’s presumed popularity. Further down the salary rankings, Philip Rivers ($5,900) is in a similar spot to Tannehill. Indianapolis is implied to score 29 points, and while Jonathan Taylor and T.Y. Hilton will be popular this week, less attention will focus on Rivers. There are worse ideas than completely punting the position with Gardner Minshew ($5,300) or Nick Mullens ($5,100) due to the respective ceilings each has shown us in the past.
What Could Change: When we receive word Brandin Cooks is officially back, some of Deshaun Watson’s ($6,800) upside will be restored. Matthew Stafford ($5,800) is likely to scratch with a ribs injury. You don’t want any part of Chase Daniel ($5,000), but if he steps in for the Lions, we should see more short-area targets for Danny Amendola ($4,200), T.J. Hockenson ($5,200), and DAndre Swift ($6,400).
Running Back
With the news breaking early Friday morning that Drew Brees will return, Alvin Kamara ($7,400) can safely be projected to resume his early-season passing-game role at an extreme discount. Kamara will usurp Derrick Henry ($9,500) as the crowd's favored RB1. After Kamara, common roster construction will diverge based on whether or not our opponents consider Travis Kelce ($8,000) a must-start. Those who use Kelce are likely to choose an RB2 in the $5.5K-$6.5K range, where Kenyan Drake ($5,500) and Cam Akers ($6,600) look like the top choices. Regardless of whether Kelce is in the lineup, expect injury fill-ins Jeff Wilson ($5,100) and Leonard Fournette ($4,500) to be popular flex plays.
Pivot Points: The re-installation of Kamara as a lock-button RB1 will cap the roster percentages of the other top-tier backs, making Henry, Dalvin Cook ($9,000), and Jonathan Taylor ($7,200) better tournament plays than they appeared to be on Thursday. While Gus Edwards ($4,400) will remain involved, we saw J.K. Dobbins ($5,900) handle a season-high 62% snap-share last week. There is a chance we can buy in early on an Akers-like takeover of the starting job for the explosive rookie, who also benefits from playing Jacksonville’s dismal defense at home.
What Could Change: Chase Edmonds will be a game-day decision. If he’s out, Kenyan Drake ($5,500) will be the crowd’s preferred RB2/Flex ahead of Wilson and Fournette. Wilson will remain a touchdown-dependent flyer if Raheem Mostert is cleared to play We should stay glued to quotes coming out of Tampa Bay on how they plan to distribute touches after Fournette was a healthy scratch last week. Antonio Gibson is iffy to play through his turf toe injury, which potentially puts J.D. McKissic ($5,700) back in play. McKissic was popular last week, but a game script that called for heavy targets failed to materialize.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill ($8,800) and DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900) will each have plenty of fans, but heavy spending at running back and/or tight end (Kelce) will cause roster percentages to concentrate in the middle and low tiers. There are plenty of options to choose from that fit common builds, including Robert Woods ($6,800), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,300), T.Y. Hilton ($5,500), and Chad Hansen ($4,200).
Pivot Points: Spending up on two expensive wide receivers will get you building in a different direction than your opponents. Just be careful not to do it by pairing two chalky options like Hill and Hopkins. Variance is higher at wide receiver than running back and quarterback, which makes spending on two popular wide receivers an easy way to bust your lineup most weeks. DK Metcalf ($8,300), A.J. Brown ($7,400), and Justin Jefferson ($7,300) are some potential slate-breakers who can gain you leverage on the field.
What Could Change: DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant returned to practice after leaving early in Week 14. If one or both can’t suit up, Lynn Bowden ($3,700) will become a popular punt-play. We’re also awaiting final word on Marquise Lee and Miles Boykin. If they don’t make it off the COVID list, a chunk of the field could land on Willie Snead ($4,300) at WR3.
Tight End
It’s Kelce or bust, though the potential absence of Brown would at least gives entrants a reason to consider Mark Andrews ($5,500) at a substantial discount. We’re more likely to see the crowd gravitate towards Dallas Goedert ($3,900) due to his association with Hurts.
Pivot Points: Atlanta has done a better job defending tight ends recently, but with the exception of Hunter Henry (8-6-41-0) last week, the results have been largely schedule-driven. Rob Gronkowski’s ($4,200) touchdown expectation vs. the Falcons trails only Kelce and Andrews on this slate.
What Could Change: Irv Smith ($3,600) is off the injury report and Kyle Rudolph still had not practiced as of Thursday. If Rudolph remains sidelined, Smith has an attractive matchup against Chicago. Mike Gesicki is expected to miss time with a shoulder injury. If he’s confirmed out, Adam Shaheen ($3,300) has greater athletic upside than Durham Smythe ($3,000).
Can You Trust The Chalk?
The term chalk in sports betting simply means the heavily-favored side of a bet. In DFS tournaments, these are the most popular players on the slate. Identifying and taking a stance on the chalk is a crucial part of tournament strategy. If you fade a chalky player, and he fails to deliver on his scoring projection, your lineup will be positioned to pass a large chunk of the field in the standings. But when a popular player lives up to expectations and you choose not to roster him, your lineups can quickly get buried in the standings.
Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s most popular players:
Derrick Henry (vs. DET, $9,500, 20% rostered)
Most professional DFS players were out on Henry last week despite the Titans’ standing as a 7.5 point favorite against Jacksonville’s bottom-5 rush defense. The argument against Henry centered around his high salary and projected roster percentage in comparison to his median scoring projection. This week, Tennessee is once again a heavy favorite (-11), once again playing against a bottom-5 rush defense, and now Henry is more expensive. Even if we ignore median projections and only use Henry’s established ceiling to calculate his chances of appearing in a first-place lineup, the probability comes up short of 20%. Last week proved why you rarely want to fade Henry completely if you’re multi-entering tournaments (especially in December), but taking an overweight stance is not recommended unless Alvin Kamara's late-week popularity completely tanks Henry's percent-rostered projections. Top out around 15% exposure.
Brandon Aiyuk (@ DAL, $6,300, 16% rostered)
Since Week 7, Aiyuk has averaged 21.74 DraftKings points per game, which trails only Davante Adams (30.38) and Tyreek Hill (30.17). It’s not to say Aiyuk deserves to be priced as the WR3 on this slate, but the context is helpful to point out the gap between his recent production and current WR17 pricepoint. Without Deebo Samuel in the lineup, Aiyuk commanded a career-high 16 targets in last week’s loss to Washington. Even if San Francisco isn’t forced to throw as much against the Cowboys, we can safely expect Aiyuk to dominate target-share and for the efficiency of those targets to improve due against a Dallas secondary that has struggled for most of the season. Assuming his roster projection doesn’t surpass 20%, give Aiyuk the all-clear in about 35% of your lineups.
Jonathan Taylor (vs. HOU, $7,200, 15% rostered)
Taylor was a drain on our collective bankrolls all season prior to last week’s long-awaited breakout game (33.5 points). As tempting as it is to go back to the well against Houston’s’ league-worst rush defense, DraftKings has complicated matters by raising Taylor’s salary by $1.4K. While Taylor should run roughshod over the Texans, the fact remains he only played on 56% of Indianapolis’ offensive snaps last week. Jordan Wilkins has been phased out of the Colts’ offense, but Nyheim Hines (11 touches last week) still has a prominent role. At last week’s $5,800 salary and 12% roster rate, Taylor was more than worth the risk. But now, if he only hits his median projection (roughly 16 DraftKings points), he’s likely to bust your lineup. Fade Taylor relative to the field.
| Player | Pos | Opponent | Salary | Proj. Ros % | Comment |
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB | @NO | $7,900 | 9% | Warrants exposure any time he's on the slate. |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | JAX | $7,500 | 10% | Big team total for BAL, explosive runs were back last week (pun very much intended). |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | @ARI | $5,900 | 8% | $500 salary bump wasn't enough for QB who runs this much. |
| Cam Akers | RB | NYJ | $6,600 | 17% | Newly minted bell-cow gets best possible RB game script (LAR -17). |
| Leonard Fournette | RB | @ATL | $4,500 | 21% | Low price puts him in play. Workload is risky. Will depend on final roster % projections. |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | @KC | $7,400 | 24% | Brees' return means 10 targets from last week are here to stay. ~$2K too cheap. |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | PHI | $7,900 | 17% | Eagles have trouble defending WR1s. But is Murray right? |
| Tyreek Hill | WR | @NO | $8,800 | 16% | Warrants exposure any time he's on the slate. Sense a pattern? |
| Robert Woods | WR | MIN | $6,300 | 15% | Easier to pass on NYJ than run. Always a featured part of LAR's game plan. |
| Travis Kelce | TE | @NO | $8,000 | 19% | Priced equivalent to WR4. Might not be high enough. |
| Mark Andrews | TE | JAX | $5,500 | 12% | Worth the exposure at this price if he's the last pass-catcher standing in BAL. |
Leverage Plays
You won’t necessarily be sneaking the players in this section past your opponents. But their percent rostered projection is lower than the probability they can appear in a first-place lineup. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their projected roster percentage.
Corey Davis (vs. DET, $5,800, 9% rostered)
Loading up on the previous week’s busted chalk is often a sound tournament strategy. We should be able to get Davis at roughly half of last week’s 17.6% roster percentage (WR3 in the Millionaire Maker), despite a near-identical setup to the one that made him popular in Week 14. Davis remains affordable for a player who has cracked double-digit DraftKings points in every game but one this season. The Titans once again have an implied team total north of 30 points and are facing an opponent who struggles in every phase on defense. The Lions have allowed 1,203 receiving yards over the last five weeks while no other team has given up more than 977. As an added bonus, going heavy on Davis is a clear way to gain leverage on the field if Derrick Henry busts or has an average game.
DAndre Swift (@TEN, $6,400, 6% rostered)
Swift is a solid play if Matthew Stafford is in the lineup but may actually become better for GPPs if Chase Daniel is named the starter. Daniel averaged 6.6 yards per attempt across two starts for Chicago last season (compared to 7.6 for Stafford), targeted Bears running backs nine times per game, and would probably cause Swift’s roster percentage to decline by association. While Swift’s touchdown expectation may drop a bit with Daniel under center, he would also become the Lions’ best chance at moving the ball due to his explosive playmaking ability. After being eased back into action following three missed games due to a (possible) concussion, we should see Swift get back closer to the 78% backfield touch rate he commanded during his breakout Week 10 performance. A Tannehill-Davis stack run back with Swift has upside and gains you massive leverage on the field.
Justin Jefferson (vs. CHI, $7,300, 7% rostered)
Jefferson is a mainstay in this section recently, as it’s been a couple of weeks since his roster percentage properly reflected his upside. The Vikings couldn’t get much going against a tough Buccaneers defense that had two weeks to prepare for last week’s matchup, but it was encouraging to see Jefferson still dominated targets (25% market share) and air yards (40% market share) in the loss. This week, Jefferson faces a Bears defense that has been susceptible to the pass in recent weeks. Chicago has allowed 17.8% more PPR fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than the league average over the last five weeks, including a 10-8-135-0 receiving line to Jefferson in Week 10 -- a game in which Adam Thielen hogged the receiving touchdowns. If touchdown variance swings back in Jefferson’s favor, his ceiling is 30+ DraftKings points.
| Player | Pos | Opponent | Salary | Proj. Ros % | Comment |
| Mitchell Trubisky | QB | @MIN | $5,500 | 6% | Has the receivers to exploit Vikings' coverage woes. Game could shoot out. |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | JAX | $5,900 | 7% | Primed to take over the backfield like fellow rookies Swift, Taylor, Akers. |
| Dalvin Cook | RB | CHI | $9,000 | 15% | Massive workload trumps poor matchup. Kamara's popularity lowers roster %. |
| Kenyan Drake | RB | PHI | $5,500 | 9% | Leading league in GL carries and TDs over last 4 weeks. |
| A.J. Brown | WR | DET | $7,600 | 8% | Seems too expensive every week. Proceeds to ball out every week. |
| Allen Robinson | WR | MIN | $7,400 | 11% | 13 targets in two of last three w/ Trubisky bodes well against MIN DBs. |
| Keke Coutee | WR | @IND | $5,300 | 7% | Better play in GPPs if Cooks is active. Less attention from crowd and IND D. |
| Rob Gronkowski | TE | @ATL | $4,200 | 5% | Best TD expectation at TE this side of Kelce/Andrews. |
Contrarian Plays
As stated in the introduction, you don’t stand a chance of winning a large-field tournament with a lineup that looks like everyone else’s. Typically, two players with roster projections below 5% are enough to separate your lineups from the crowd. If you’re multi-entering, however, be careful not to ratchet your exposure to contrarian players up too high. Keep in mind using a 5%-rostered player in only two out of 10 lineups gains you four times more exposure than the field when you multi-enter a tournament.
D.J. Chark (@BAL, $5,000, 3% rostered)
Chark has only been worth playing in two out of 11 games this season, but both of those games resulted in a 6x return on his current salary. His recent string of ugly box-scores combined with this week’s matchup against the Ravens defense will suppress Chark’s percent-rostered in Gardner Minshew’s first start since Week 7. Minshew is no world-beater but has proven more capable of unlocking Chark’s ceiling than Jake Luton or Mike Glennon. Over his last three games, Chark is averaging a solid 8.6 targets and is among the league-leaders in unrealized air yards. The probability Minshew gets him back on track exceeds Chark’s projected roster-rate.
Nick Mullens (@DAL, $5,100, 2% rostered)
San Francisco’s 24-point implied team total is just high enough to consider Mullens against the Cowboys, in what could be a sneaky shootout. Even if Dallas can’t force Mullens into a pass-heavy game script, their up-tempo pace of play should result in plenty of offensive plays for the 49ers. Mullens flashed a 25-point ceiling as recently as Week 13 against Buffalo and is tied to Aiyuk, who the crowd loves. Using Aiyuk in a stack with Mullens is an easy way to cut the chalk. Run it back with Michael Gallup, who is due for positive regression in both the touchdown and yardage categories.
Jalen Reagor (@ARI, $4,400, 1% rostered)
In a year where so many rookie wide receivers have defied expectations, Reagor has continued to disappoint. But the move to Jalen Hurts at quarterback has made the Eagles a viable offense for fantasy purposes, and Reagor operated as the top downfield threat in Week 14, posting a 14.8-yard average target depth and 36% share of the team’s air yards. Reagor is cheap enough, low-rostered enough, and (theoretically) dynamic enough as a playmaker to crush his salary/ownership profile. He’ll also get you off the chalky roster construction of pairing Hurts with Dallas Goedert.
| Player | Pos | Opponent | Salary | Proj. Ros % | Comment |
| Gardner Minshew | QB | @BAL | $5,300 | 2% | Routinely got to 20+ DK points earlier this year. Will have to throw a ton. |
| Andy Dalton | QB | SF | $5,400 | 1% | SF @ DAL sets up as sloppy but high-scoring game. |
| Miles Sanders | RB | @ARI | $6,900 | 5% | HR hitter has better running lanes w/ Hurts freezing enemy LBs. |
| Gus Edwards | RB | JAX | $4,400 | 3% | Just in case the Dobbins takeover is further delayed. |
| Sammy Watkins | WR | @NO | $4,600 | 3% | 20+ DK points well within range of outcomes. |
| Michael Gallup | WR | SF | $3,500 | 6% | Positive TD and yardage regression incoming. |
| Irv Smith | TE | CHI | $3,600 | 3% | Eased back in last week and still managed 4-63-1. Bears stink vs. TEs. |
