DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 4

Photo: USA Today Sports

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

Know Your Enemies

To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:

Quarterback

Quarterback roster rates are traditionally flat on DraftKings, but they’ve spiked this season due primarily to Kyler Murray’s soft pricing through three weeks. With Murray now up to $7,000 and a staggering 10 teams on the slate implied to score at least 26 points, we should expect a return to normalcy. 10-12 quarterbacks will cannibalize each other’s popularity, and they range in price from $5,400 (Ryan Fitzpatrick) to $8,100 (Lamar Jackson). It will be difficult to project how much the average roster will spend at quarterback, as well as common roster construction on the whole, as a result.

Pivot Points: You shouldn’t care much about roster percentage at quarterback this week, since they’ll be so tightly bunched together. If there is a range that will go overlooked, it’s from $5,500 to $6,100, though going lower (Ryan Fitzpatrick at $5,400) or higher (starting with Burrow at $6,300) feels like the better process play given the available options.

Running Back

Alvin Kamara ($8,000) is the top luxury purchase at running back and should fill the RB1 slot in common rosters. Most entrants will look to an RB2 in the $5.6-$6.5K range, and probably one in the flex spot as well. Darrell Henderson ($5,600), Mike Davis ($5,700), Kenyan Drake ($6,000), and James Robinson ($6,500) are the likely suspects. In total, stock roster builds should devote around 40% of their cap to running backs.

Pivot Points: Pricing is efficient at the position, which means we should look for leverage in the same price tiers our opponents are likely to attack. Joe Mixon ($5,800), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,300), Jonathan Taylor ($6,600), and Ezekiel Elliott ($7,800) should see modest roster percentages relative to most slates.

Wide Receiver

Even if we assume a moderately priced quarterback like Deshaun Watson ($6,600) is a popular option, there isn't much room for spending up at wide receiver. DeAndre Hopkins ($8,500) Tyler Lockett ($7,000), and DK Metcalf ($6,800) will be popular as standalone plays and in game stacks but are pricey for the common construction. Instead, we should see a high concentration in the $6K range, where Tyler Boyd ($6,100), Robert Woods ($6,300), and Keenan Allen ($6,500) stand out. Punt options, such as Gabriel Davis ($3,200 if John Brown scratches), Tee Higgins ($4,500), and Hunter Renfrow ($4,500) could draw the crowd as WR3s to smooth out the spending at running back and the other receiver spots. A 30-35% cap spend at wide receiver should be most common.

Pivot Points: Paying up to non-Hopkins or Seahawks wide receivers will cut against the grain. Tyreek Hill ($6,900), Allen Robinson ($6,700), and Mike Evans ($6,400) are viable. Brandin Cooks ($4,500), Randall Cobb ($4,800), and Sammy Watkins ($4,400) have upside as price pivots off Higgins and Renfrow.

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson ($4,800) fits comfortably into lineups this week. He should be the first player most entrants turn to in a matchup against the Saints that has paid dividends for opposing tight ends thus far. The majority of rosters won’t have the room to pay up much further than Darren Waller ($5,200), and many will punt with Logan Thomas ($3,500) in hopes his heavy usage finally turns into production. Expect most entrants to devote 7-10% of the salary cap to a tight end.

Pivot Points: Bill Belichick has a history of erasing Travis Kelce ($6,800), making Mark Andrews ($6,000) the top pay-up-to-be-contrarian option at the position, especially since he’s coming off consecutive disappointing games and should see a low roster rate as a result.

Can You Trust The Chalk?

The term chalk in sports betting simply means the heavily-favored side of a bet. In DFS tournaments, these are the most popular players on the slate. Identifying and taking a stance on the chalk is a crucial part of tournament strategy. If you fade a chalky player, and he fails to deliver on his scoring projection, your lineup will be positioned to pass a large chunk of the field in the standings. But when a popular player lives up to expectations and you choose not to roster him, your lineups can quickly get buried in the standings.

Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s most popular players:

Alvin Kamara (@ DET, $8,000, 27% rostered)
There is no shortage of running backs in great on-paper spots this week, but we can safely assume Kamara will top the wishlists of at least 25% of entrants. In Michael Thomas’ absence, Kamara has staked his claim as the most valuable running back in all of fantasy football by scoring a combined 86.1 DraftKings points over the last two games. Even if Thomas is back in the lineup this week, Kamara can be counted on for his usual 12 rush attempts and 8-10 targets against a Lions defense that was infamously gashed by Aaron Jones (48.6 DraftKings points) in Week 2. There is no questioning Kamara’s upside in this game (or any), but if Thomas’ return results in even a slight squeeze in high-leverage opportunities, it’s best not to exceed the field’s exposure in your lineups.

T.J. Hockenson (vs. NO, $4,800, 12% rostered)
Hockenson ranks as the cumulative TE10 on DraftKings through three weeks, which aligns closely enough with his salary. While his production hasn’t been overwhelming, Week 3 was quietly a significant step in the right direction for the Lions’ young tight end. After being held below 70% of the team’s offensive snaps in Weeks 1 and 2, Hockenson was on the field for 82% of the snaps against Arizona, which resulted in a season-high seven targets. Assuming similar usage against the Saints, Hockenson’s 2020 breakout game stands a good chance of arriving in Week 4. The only hesitation is following the crowd at the highly volatile tight end position. If he’s projected to appear in more than 15% of lineups by Sunday’s update, play less Hockenson in your lineups.

Saints defense vs. tight ends

Week 1: 6 catches, 47 yards, 1 TD
Week 2: 13 catches, 136 yards, 1 TD
Week 3: 9 catches, 104 yards, 2 TDs

— Jeremy Reisman (@DetroitOnLion) September 30, 2020

DK Metcalf (@MIA, $6,800, 19% rostered)
Metcalf appeared in this space last week as a relative fade, a decision that would have proved disastrous had he not hot-dogged on his way to the end zone and gotten the ball punched out just before scoring what would have been his first of two touchdowns against Dallas. With at least 92 yards and one touchdown in all three games this season, Metcalf has quickly become the best floor/ceiling combo play at the wide receiver position. This week’s matchup against Miami isn’t intimidating, especially if cornerback Byron Jones doesn’t make it back this week for the Dolphins, but you should once again come in under the field on Metcalf. Seattle is favored by nearly a touchdown. If Ryan Fitzpatrick and co. can’t keep things close, it remains to be seen if the Seahawks will continue calling more pass plays than we’ve grown accustomed to over the years.

Leverage Plays

You won’t necessarily be sneaking the players in this section past your opponents. But their percent rostered projection is lower than the probability they can appear in a first-place lineup. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their projected roster percentage.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (vs. NE, $6,400, 15% rostered)
DraftKings seems to have adjusted Edwards-Helaire’s salary down due to a matchup against New England, which doesn’t make sense. The Patriots may have excelled at stopping the run in years past, but they’ve yet to prove anything this year in matchups against Miami’s anemic running game, Chris Carson (19.8 DraftKings points), and a lopsided victory over the Raiders in which they allowed 5.8 yards per rush attempt. If you believe Vegas set a good line for this game (Chiefs -7, 30-point implied team total), Edwards-Helaire’s is set up nicely for his best fantasy performance of the season. The rookie standout has seen at least 25 total touches in two-out-of-three games and has been heavily involved as a receiver in each of his last two (14 combined targets) after failing to record a target in Week 1. Take advantage of the poor pricing and double the field on your exposure.

Mike Evans (vs. LAC, $6,400, 8% rostered)
Evans should get glossed over by the crowd in a perceived tough matchup, especially following his second two-yard receiving game of the young season. But his 10-7-101-1 output in Week 2 gave us a taste of what is possible for Evans when Chris Godwin is out of the lineup and targets get consolidated for the Buccaneers. The matchup against the Chargers cornerbacks won’t do him any favors, but Evans is a bully who can get downfield and outjump just about any defender. If we can safely project him for 8-10 targets and a sub-10% roster percentage, he belongs in 20% of your tournament lineups.

Dak Prescott (vs. CLE,$7,200, 6% rostered)
Cleveland might not have the offensive firepower to force the Cowboys into a frenetic game script, but that shouldn’t make you shy away from Prescott and his pass-catchers this week. Dallas runs plays at the fastest situation-neutral pace in the league, which will give Prescott and his supporting cast plenty of opportunities to exceed expectations. The last time the Browns played an offense close to Dallas’ caliber, Lamar Jackson dissected them for 275 yards, three touchdowns, and an 80% completion rate. Run your Cowboys stacks back with Nick Chubb and/or Kareem Hunt for uniqueness.

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