DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 2

Photo: USA Today Sports

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

Know Your Enemies

To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:

Quarterback

Somehow Kyler Murray’s price dropped by $300 after he exhibited instant chemistry with DeAndre Hopkins and rushed for 91 yards against the vaunted 49ers defense. Murray’s peculiar salary and stack-ability with Hopkins all but guarantees he’ll fit the most common roster construction. The salary tier above Murray will also receive plenty of love with Josh Allen ($6,700), Dak Prescott ($6,800), and Aaron Rodgers ($6,900) each headed into excellent matchups. Expect most rosters to allocate 12-15% of their cap space to a quarterback.

Pivot Points: You won’t sneak Lamar Jackson ($8,200) and Patrick Mahomes II ($7,700) past your opponents on any slate, but Week 2 is a good time to try with roster percentages likely to concentrate in the mid-tier. The sub-$6K tier below Murray should also get glossed over by the crowd and includes several signal-callers on teams with implied totals above the 24-point threshold we should be targeting.

Running Back

Jonathan Taylor’s price ($5,700) remained stagnant in the wake of Marlon Mack’s season-ending Achilles injury. Expect Taylor to appear in plenty of lineups alongside Ezekiel Elliott ($8,200) and Derrick Henry ($7,900), each of whom has excellent matchups. If James Conner misses Week 2 due to his ankle injury, Benny Snell ($4,500) will become the most popular punt option at the position, which could cause the common roster construction to diverge. With or without Snell in play, the majority of lineups will feature a running back in the flex position, with up to 45% of the total cap devoted to running backs.

Pivot Points: Christian McCaffrey (28.4 DraftKings points) was solid but unspectacular for $10,000 last week. Fewer entrants than usual will be willing to pay the premium for McCaffrey with Elliott and Henry both in juicy spots. Building lineups that don’t include at least two of Taylor, Elliott, Henry, (and maybe Snell or Clyde Edwards-Helaire) will probably be enough to set you on the path towards creating a unique lineup.

Wide Receiver

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700) was a one-man wrecking crew in his Cardinals debut. Considering Murray’s high likelihood of topping quarterback wishlists, he’ll bring Hopkins along for the ride in a quality matchup against Washington’s defensive backs. Davante Adams ($8,100) was the other slate-breaking wide receiver in Week 1. He’ll also get piled on by the field, leaving entrants with a difficult choice between rostering both Elliott and Henry or Adams and Hopkins. In all likelihood, we’ll see a fair amount of each type of build. Sub-$5K options coming off standout Week 1 performances, Diontae Johnson ($4,500), Parris Campbell ($4,500), and Mike Williams ($4,200) will round out the most common builds. Lineups with two stud wideouts will allocate about 40% of their cap to wide receivers, while Elliott/Henry lineups will be closer to 33%.

Pivot Points: If you spend more than $7,000 on a wide receiver and he’s not named Adams or Hopkins, you’re probably building in a unique direction. Starting lineups with a trio of mid-priced receivers is another way to buck convention with your roster construction.

Tight End

Whether you go with a running back-heavy or wide receiver-heavy approach, spending on a tight end becomes challenging. The chalk move will be to punt the position with a sub-$4K option. Logan Thomas ($3,600) and Chris Herndon ($3,400) are the usual suspects. George Kittle’s status bears watching, as his absence would put Jordan Reed ($2,600) in play at just above the site minimum. We should expect about 7% of the cap to be allocated to tight ends in the most common construction.

Pivot Points: Travis Kelce ($7,000) and Mark Andrews ($6,300) will each command plenty of individual attention, but don’t fit the common construction. Significant leverage can be gained by rostering any tight end besides Kelce, Andrews, Thomas, Herndon, and Noah Fant.

Can You Trust The Chalk?

The term chalk in sports betting simply means the heavily-favored side of a bet. In DFS tournaments, these are the most popular players on the slate. Identifying and taking a stance on the chalk is a crucial part of tournament strategy. If you fade a chalky player, and he fails to deliver on his scoring projection, your lineup will be positioned to pass a large chunk of the field in the standings. But when a popular player lives up to expectations and you choose not to roster him, your lineups can quickly get buried in the standings.

Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s most popular players:

Kyler Murray (vs. WAS, $6,100, 15% rostered)
Murray wasn’t exactly surgical in orchestrating a takedown of the 2019 NFC champion 49ers in Week 1, but it was clear he’s taken a step forward in his development as a quarterback. If the intelligence Murray showed last week as a passer is here to stay, his rushing ability will place him in rarified air for fantasy purposes. DraftKings’ decision to drop Murray’s price is downright puzzling, though it’s probably a show of respect to a Washington front seven that sacked Carson Wentz eight times last week. Murray, however, just proved he can get the best of an elite pass-rushing unit, and Vegas has Arizona implied to score a healthy 26.5 points. The only hesitation is the Cardinals are 6.5-point favorites in this matchup and haven’t yet done enough to be favored by nearly a touchdown against any NFL team. While this is a classic letdown spot for the Cardinals (coming off an emotional division upset win), Murray is flat-out priced incorrectly. He is one of the quarterbacks you should rotate around your core plays.

Jonathan Taylor (vs. MIN, $5,700, 27% rostered)
DraftKings’ pricing algorithm was asleep at the wheel when assigning Taylor’s Week 2 salary. He’ll have to share snaps with Nyheim Hines (a solid play at $5,300), but Taylor looked as advertised on many of his touches last week and surprised in the passing game, catching all six of his targets for 67 yards. With a full week of practice reps with the starting unit, we should expect Taylor to play on far more than the 37% of snaps he saw last week. Median projections place him at about 20 touches (four receptions), and there is upside for more if Taylor gets into a rhythm behind one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the game. It’s possible this is the cheapest we’ll see Taylor on DraftKings for the next three years, but his percent rostered projection is prohibitive for tournaments. When we consider T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell should also be popular plays, and the Vikings defense is most vulnerable on the back-end, the probability Taylor appears in a GPP-winning lineup is probably less than his percent-rostered projection. Fade him relative to the field and pray he doesn’t bury you.

Davante Adams (vs. DET, $8,100, 21% rostered)
Hopefully, you were able to exploit Adams’ ludicrously-low Week 1 salary. While he’s now appropriately priced as the overall WR1, there is plenty of room left for Adams to deliver a 4x salary multiple against the Lions. Detroit gave Mitchell Trubisky (242-3-0) a new lease on life in the season debut and will enter this game banged up in their defensive backfield. Starting cornerback Justin Coleman was placed on injured reserve, Desmond Trufant has a significant hamstring injury, and the team’s top draft pick, Jeff Okudah, is still iffy with a hamstring injury of his own after sitting out in Week 1. Adams is once again positioned for running back-level volume, and even if Okudah is cleared for his first NFL start, there isn’t a Lions player capable of defending him. Fade Adams at your own risk.

Leverage Plays

You won’t necessarily be sneaking the players in this section past your opponents. But their percent rostered projection is lower than the probability they can appear in a first-place lineup. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their projected roster percentage.

T.Y. Hilton (vs. MIN, $5,700 12% rostered)

Hilton is this week’s ultimate leverage play for multiple reasons:

• Parris Campbell’s low salary and splashy Week 1 performance should make him the more popular Colts receiver, and not many folks will be rushing to pair two of Philip Rivers’ targets in the same lineup.

• Taylor, Hines, and Campbell will be heavily-rostered. The probability Hilton outscores each of them against a Minnesota secondary Aaron Rodgers engulfed in flames last week is stronger than most think.

• $5,700 is wide receiver no man’s land on this slate. The crowd is looking to pay up or punt without much in between.

• Hilton was targeted nine times last week and a pair of uncharacteristic drops late in the game sunk his final stat line. Bet on a bounceback.

Tom Brady (vs. CAR, $6,500, 4% rostered)

Yes, this is a bet on Carolina’s defense once again playing down to their reputation as the worst unit in the league. But it’s also a shot against the prevailing notion Brady is completely washed. When Matt Waldman says there were signs of future fantasy heights for Brady and the entire Tampa Bay receiving corps during their disappointing Week 1 performance, we should be willing to listen, especially since a matchup against the Panthers is at the opposite end of the spectrum as playing the Saints in New Orleans. With Chris Godwin a late entry into the concussion protocol, Brady can be paired with a discounted Mike Evans ($6,400) and either of his tight ends for a stack with massive upside at a moderate cost. The Buccaneers 28.5-point team total is third-highest on the slate.

Aaron Jones (vs. DET, $7,100, 4% rostered)

Rodgers and Davante Adams are shading Jones from the crowd in a potential blow-up spot. Green Bay is at home, favored by six, and implied to score nearly 28 points. If the game plays out according to plan, it will create a classic running back-heavy game script. Jones’ snap-share was a concern in Week 1 (54%) but his usage was strong enough (20 total touches, six targets). While the Packers’ wide receivers have the more favorable matchup, it’s doubtful 80% of the team’s touchdowns come through the air for a second-straight week. Their 41% rushing touchdown percentage from a year ago was a top-5 rate, which suggests Green Bay will begin scoring more on the ground in short order. Jones, who handled four out of the team’s six touches from inside the 10-yard line in Week 1, will be the primary beneficiary.

Follow @PhilFBG