A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
They gave us 33 names. That's a lot.
If you want all of the players, keep on reading. If you just want the top guys, here are the six players who received the most votes:
- Terry McLaurin, Washington - 5 votes
- Marquise Brown, Baltimore - 4 votes
- Brandin Cooks, Houston - 4 votes
- Jarvis Landry, Cleveland - 4 votes
- JuJu Smith-Schuster - 4 votes
- Preston Williams - 4 votes
NOTE: We know all these different opinions can be a lot. And certainly, not everyone agrees on everything.
If you want to cut straight to the chase and get our "Bottom Line" for where we project every player right down to the last yard, you can see that here. That's our Bottom Line and where we plant the Footballguys Flag for all these players.
If you'd like to see more detail about how the staff sees different players, here is every wide receiver who was mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Terry McLaurin, Washington
Jeff Haseley: Terry McLaurin is capable of much more than he showed last year. We see receivers emerge and then explode the next year often and McLaurin is in a perfect setting for that to occur. He is the clear receiving threat on Washington and let's not forget Dwayne Haskins knows him since their days at Ohio State. There is virtually no tight end threat to minimize McLaurin's targets. Washington may not have the best offense, but it would be shocking if McLaurin wasn't targeted at least eight times per game, if not more. He has a top-15 upside that you can draft at a discount.
Ryan Hester: Sure, his quarterback and offensive situation will be bad. But they were bad last year as well when McLaurin surprised everyone with a rookie year output of 59 catches, 919 yards, and 7 touchdowns. McLaurin has even less proven competition for targets this season, and he has a college connection with Dwayne Haskins from Ohio State. Washington games won't be pretty, but McLaurin will put up a consistent, volume-driven floor with the chance for a ceiling game at any given time due to his explosiveness.
Dan Hindery: McLaurin put up 919 yards and 7 touchdowns as a rookie in just 14 games. The numbers are impressive without context but really pop when you consider just how poor the passing offense was. Washington finished dead last in the NFL with just 175.8 passing yards per game. McLaurin is currently priced as if the top receiver in a passing offense that will again be inept. There is no downside given how secure his lead role. However, there is a significant upside if the Washington offense takes a step forward. Dwayne Haskins showed some flashes in the final two games of his rookie season and has worked hard on his physical conditioning this offseason. If Haskins takes even a modest step forward, McLaurin has legitimate WR1 upside.
Justin Howe: Drafters don't really know what to do with McLaurin, and that's fair. In an offense that could border on the putrid, failing to meet his lofty rookie standards wouldn't be a huge surprise. He falls into a big pool of gifted young wideouts in flawed situations still being sorted out. But McLaurin was sensational as a rookie, improving with quarterback Dwayne Haskins as the season wore on. There's little not to like - he's big, speedy, and has tremendous burst after the catch. There's WR1 upside in play if the Washington offense shows anything at all.
Danny Tuccitto: Despite being a rookie on a bottom-shelf pass offense with mediocre-at-best quarterback play, McLaurin still enters 2020 as one of only 14 wide receivers returning to their same team who rank among the Top 25 in both True Yards per Route Run (19th) and True Touchdowns per Route Run (23rd). In addition, McLaurin will benefit from having Dwayne Haskins as his full-time quarterback rather than Case Keenum, though not (just) because of a college teammate narrative. Rather, Haskins' True average Depth of Target (9.2) was nearly a full yard higher than Keenum's (8.3), and is, therefore, a much better fit to McLaurin's 22nd-ranked True aDOT (14.0).
Players Receiving 4 Votes
Marquise Brown, Baltimore
Phil Alexander: The term "league-winner" gets thrown around a lot in fantasy football, but it applies to Brown in 2020. After watching what he accomplished last year as a rookie without a preseason, playing hurt, and on limited snaps, he may have the highest weekly ceiling of any receiver in the NFL in a full-time role. Sure, he'll disappear in a few games where the Ravens dominate with their defense and running game, but how many other WR3s can win your weekly matchup single-handedly? Take him ahead of ADP and pray his 180-pound frame can hold up for the full season.
Sigmund Bloom: When you consider that Brown was never 100% last year, he becomes a much more exciting player to draft. The Ravens offense is going to create multiple big-play opportunities for Brown every game because they force defenses to overplay the run, and Brown could easily have a similar impact in both NFL and fantasy terms as Tyreek Hill.
James Brimacombe: As a rookie who battled injuries before the season even started and throughout the season, Brown managed to catch 46 passes for 584 yards and seven touchdowns in 14 games. The best part of these numbers is that Brown plays on a team that runs the ball at such a high rate and the number of passing plays was very limited in Baltimore in 2019. I feel like Brown will be healthy to start the year and that Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will start to look to the pass more often leading to Brown being one of the best values at the wide receiver position.
Dan Hindery: Brown was solid as a rookie despite missing the entire offseason and playing through a foot injury. He has put on 20 pounds of muscle in the offseason and earned rave reviews from the Baltimore coaching staff and quarterback Lamar Jackson. “I feel like he is going to have a huge jump — more than people may think," Jackson said. “He was hurt last year but he went out there and battled his tail off each and every game on a messed up foot. And now his full potential is going to show this year."
Brandin Cooks, Houston
David Dodds: The Texans acquired Brandin Cooks to attempt to fill the void left by the departure of DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins accounted for 150 targets, 104 receptions, 1,165 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns in 2019. Brandin Cooks had a horrible year in 2019 but showed strong skills for three different teams from 2016-2018. He is a strong bet to rebound and is being drafted at or below his floor.
Andy Hicks: Brandin Cooks is a man of mystery. This will be his fourth team in five years. That usually spells the end of the career or hard to control troublemaker. In the case of Cooks, he gets traded for high draft picks every time. Outside 2020 production isn’t a problem either. The 2020 season can be clearly defined as pre concussion production and post-concussion production. Before his week five knock he was on track to record his usual bottom end WR1 production from 2015-2018. Do you think Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, or Randall Cobb are a threat? Fuller has missed 22 games in four years and is inconsistent, Stills is a classic WR3 and Cobb hasn’t been a fantasy starter since 2015. Cooks is the main guy here and his current draft price is all value and little downside.
Chad Parsons: Last year was the first time Brandin Cooks finished outside the top-24 in PPR PPG in the NFL. Cooks has new life (again) with a team change, traded to Houston. Cooks is paired with yet another strong quarterback in his career with Deshaun Watson. Without DeAndre Hopkins, Cooks has a golden opportunity to be the unquestioned WR1 for a top quarterback where top-8 quarterbacks in fantasy (likely status for Watson) produce a top-24 PPR option for their No.1 receiver 89% of the time historically and a top-12 option 58% of the time. The average finish is WR13. Cooks is a glaring target player in 2020.
Jason Wood: Will Fuller being drafted before Brandin Cooks is mystifying and provides one of the best value arbitrage opportunities at any position. Fuller is the incumbent, but he's never been the No. 1 receiver in Houston; he's a very talented one-dimensional player. When healthy, he's an elite deep threat but Cooks is the better player in every other respect. He's a far better route runner, understands how to find the open spaces in zone defenses, has better hands, and has been the more productive player in spite of continually learning new playbooks and building chemistry with new quarterbacks. Cooks has averaged 1.91 fantasy points per target in his stellar career, compared to DeAndre Hopkins at 1.75 points per target. The main difference has been Hopkins' 160+ targets per year to Cooks' sub-120 targets, but those target roles reverse in 2020. Buy now, thank me later.
Jarvis Landry, Cleveland
Andrew Davenport: Landry has finished the last three seasons as the PPR WR12, WR18, and WR5. He has now played 6 seasons in the NFL and his floor (outside of his rookie year of 758 yards) has been 81 catches, 976 yards, and 4 touchdowns. That's 202.6 PPR points, which was good enough for WR25 last season. Although that's not a big number, that represents his floor in the past 5 years of production. It's, therefore, perplexing why he is being drafted below that floor in fantasy leagues right now. There should be plenty of room for Landry to outperform his ADP yet again in 2020.
Andy Hicks: Sometimes you have to query your own sanity in doing evaluations of players. Jarvis Landry has six consecutive seasons of at least eighty receptions. Apart from his rookie year has around 1000 yards receiving -- and often more -- and is good for half a dozen touchdowns. Landry hasn’t missed a game in his career, clearly outperformed Odell Beckham last year, has a good rapport with Baker Mayfield, and his worst fantasy finish in the last five years is 21st. He is as good and safe of a high WR2 as you will ever find. Yet he is going well in the middle of the WR3s, no other staffer has him as a WR2, and no one wants him on their fantasy team.
Jordan McNamara: Cleveland was largely thought of as a disappointment last year. Baker Mayfield did not take the big step forward he was widely expected to take, while Odell Beckham Jr finished as WR25, a major disappointment given his preseason cost. Landry on the other hand finished as WR12 but did not manage to avoid the negative narrative from 2019. His offseason surgery may be a cause for some of the value, but he was activated from PUP and should be ready to go for the season. Even though he is healthy, his ADP is unlikely to catch his combination of floor and ceiling, so he remains a prime target in drafts.
Jeff Tefertiller: Landry is being drafted off the old news that there was a chance he would miss time. Landry passed his physical a few days ago and should be fine for the season. He is the favorite to lead the team in receptions and should benefit from the coaching change. Remember how Stefanski helped Thielen/Diggs.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh
Andrew Davenport: Smith-Schuster is a perfect study in the fickle nature of fantasy opinion. Too often emotion gets attached to a player without fantasy owners realizing it, and this is the case for the Steelers' top receiver after watching him struggle in 2019. His injuries, coupled with terrible quarterback play, have people choosing other receivers who ostensibly carry less risk and more excitement. While there is some risk attached to Ben Roethlisberger's health, there is very little else that has changed from Smith-Schuster's monster 2018 season. They have one of the better offensive lines in the league, they have a hall of fame quarterback returning to the fold, and Smith-Schuster enters his fourth year in the league despite being just 23 years old. Now the Steelers have hired quarterbacks coach Matt Canada who is likely to push for more misdirection and pre-snap motion - both things that will help free up Smith-Schuster to approach 130 targets and 90 catches. He may not hit 1,400 yards or double-digit touchdowns (although that's in his range of outcomes), but his current ADP is a head-scratcher. Don't think too hard and grab him as a dynamite WR2, or even a solid WR1 following early running back selections.
Ryan Hester: Everything that made Smith-Schuster a high-end Round 2 pick one year ago is still in place. Everything that made his 2019 season a disappointment is now gone. Smith-Schuster won't be saddled with league-worst quarterback play as he was last year following Ben Roethlisberger's injury. And Smith-Schuster will be healthier as well. Being able to acquire a player who should see 120+ targets from an elite quarterback on a high-end offense in the late third/early fourth is a gift. Take it and run.
Jordan McNamara: Smith-Schuster is rebounding from a lost season. In almost every way imaginable, his 2019 season went bad. He was injured and lost offensive weapons en masse. His Hall of Fame Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger only played two games before he was injured and missed the rest of the season because of injury. Through 41 games in his career, Smith-Schuster has played 30 games with Roethlisberger and 11 without Roethlisberger. When Roethlisberger plays, Smith-Schuster averages 16.14 PPG compared to 10.66 PPG without Roethlisberger. Over a 16 game pace, Roethlisberger would have been WR7 last year compared to WR37 without Roethlisberger, a difference of about two-thirds of a regular-season win. I expect a big bounceback in 2020.
Matt Waldman: His 2018 campaign of 111 catches, 1,400+ yards, and 7 scores was likely Smith-Schuster's career year unless the Steelers find an equal talent to Ben Roethlisberger within a season or two and a true successor to Antonio Brown on the outside. The lack of developed surrounding receiver talent was why I was down on Smith-Schuster as a 2019 fantasy commodity. Now that Diontae Johnson has established that he has NFL growth potential and the Steelers added veteran Eric Ebron, the offense has two receivers that will force opposing defenses to honor multiple options. This will help the Steelers move Smith-Schuster around the offense to find mismatches. With Roethlisberger back, Smith-Schuster should approach highs with receptions and scores, even if his yardage total doesn't reach that 2018 total.
Preston Williams, Miami
David Dodds: Preston Williams's draft stock is an all-time low because it's uncertain if he will be able to suit up in week 1 after tearing his ACL in November. The Dolphins are extremely thin at wide receiver after both Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns opted out this season. The Dolphins medically cleared Williams on August 3rd for football activities and early reports indicate he remains on schedule to start in week one. Before Williams went down last year, he was leading all Miami wide receivers in receptions (32) and yards (428).
Dan Hindery: When we get into the late rounds, we are focused almost exclusively on upside and Williams has a higher ceiling than the other receivers going off the board around him. Williams looked well on his way to a big rookie season before an injury in his eighth game. His playmaking ability was obvious, and he was seeing plenty of volume. Williams was on pace for 120 targets on the season and Miami did not add any significant pass-catching competition in the offseason. Miami quietly finished 13th in the NFL in passing yards last season and the combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tua Tagovailoa should be conducive to big fantasy production.
Justin Howe: By all accounts, Williams will be all systems go for Week 1. And while DeVante Parker was fantastic last year as the Dolphins' No. 1, it can't be forgotten that Williams held the role before tearing his ACL. Over his first 8 games, the rookie led the team in targets, receptions, and yards. And that came on just a 53% catch rate - the Dolphins opened the year with some awful quarterbacking. A healthy return and some more offensive stability give Williams a low-end WR2 ceiling, which would return nicely on this WR4 investment.
Jeff Pasquino: Williams is a sneaky wide receiver to grab later in drafts as the Miami offense was considered to be a wasteland last year before Ryan Fitzpatrick took over at quarterback, but if you dig deeper you can find a potential hidden gem here. Williams, a UDFA from Colorado State, not only made the Dolphins’ roster but played significant snaps and was on pace to finish as a lower-end WR3 after eight games last year. The rookie’s amazing season was cut short with a torn ACL after Week 9, but he remains on track to be ready for Week 1. Considering the upside for the young wide receiver and the relatively low price of a later round selection, Williams should be on several sleeper lists.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
A.J. Green, Cincinnati
Phil Alexander: Green is one of the best wide receivers of this generation, and at 31 years old, he can easily have another top-10 fantasy season in him (especially while playing for his last lucrative long-term deal). The Bengals offense Green carried on his back during the Andy Dalton era is barely recognizable. Cincinnati is loaded at the skill positions and finally has a franchise quarterback. The team played fast under first-year head coach Zac Taylor last season, ranking seventh in situation-neutral pace of play. When you factor in the Bengals project to have one of the league's worst defenses, we could be looking at a perfect fantasy storm. If Green is even 75% of the player he was when we last saw him on the field, he should be the primary beneficiary.
Sigmund Bloom: Green's ADP is similar to last year's during the preseason when we knew he was hurt with an uncertain return to play timeline. This year he is healthy and so far getting rave reviews. Green has never been anything but an elite fantasy wide receiver when he is on the field. Even if he only gives you half of a season because of injuries, if he is producing at a WR1 clip, he is more than worth the cost. Joe Burrow could end up being an upgrade from Andy Dalton as a rookie to elevate Green's already high ceiling.
Dan Hindery: The injuries over the last two seasons and Green’s age (32 in July) are concerning. However, those negatives are more than priced in at his current ADP. If Green can just stay healthy, he will smash his current expectations and easily put up WR1 numbers. Remember, the last we saw Green he had 687 yards and 6 touchdowns in eight games. Green has finished WR8 or higher in every single season in which he played 16 games. Plus, Green put up those impressive numbers with Andy Dalton. There is a very real chance that Joe Burrow will instantly be the best passer Green has ever caught passes from. Green has reportedly looked explosive early in camp.
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis
Sigmund Bloom: Hilton's injury-riddled 2019 is dragging down his ADP. It wasn't comforting to see him on the NFI list with a hamstring issue, but he has been a durable player before 2019, missing only four games over the previous seven seasons. He'll get an upgrade at quarterback with the arrival of Philip Rivers and is still the main cog of the Colts pass offense.
Ryan Hester: Hilton will once again be the clear top target in Indianapolis, and his production should be boosted by the upgrade at quarterback that Philip Rivers provides. Hilton's 2019 was below his standards, but he was hampered by injury throughout the year. If he remains healthy in 2020, a WR1 finish isn't out of the question.
Jeff Pasquino: Hilton struggled last year with injuries and the change from Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, but now he is good to go and looking forward to playing with new QB Philip Rivers. Hilton was a Top 25 wide receiver for six consecutive seasons prior to last year, so a strong rebound seems rather likely. Hilton needs to put up WR1-type numbers in a contract year, so look for him to step up in what could be his final season as a Colt.
Darius Slayton, NY Giants
James Brimacombe: Slayton was a fifth-round draft pick in 2019 and was well behind Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard on the depth chart to start the season but quickly embraced his opportunity and made a name for himself as a rookie. In 14 games and 83 targets, Slayton produced a healthy 48/740/8 stat line and showed some great connection with Daniel Jones. Slayton had three different games where he caught two touchdowns against the Lions, Jets, and Eagles and finished the season with seven touchdowns in his last nine games.
Andy Hicks: One of the most surprising rookies of 2019 was the fifth-round pick of the New York Giants, Darius Slayton. A late-round rookie with a preseason injury is often in danger of not making the final roster. Slayton made it, missed the first two games of the season and little was expected once he debuted. In his first game, he recorded receptions of 14, 46, and 21 yards. He finished the season with three double touchdown games, multiple hundred-yard games, and several other efforts worth a fantasy start. The Giants didn’t add a receiver of note and while Golden Tate and Sterling Shepherd have either peaked or are on their way down, Slayton has improvement to make. Slayton comes at an incredible draft price this year, has a good rapport with fellow second-year man Daniel Jones and while he isn’t a sure thing, he is all upside.
Jeff Pasquino: The Giants have three options at wide receiver in 2020 - Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton. Shepard and Tate both had the opportunity to establish themselves as the starters last year for New York, but injuries and lackluster performances opened the door for Slayton. The rookie receiver emerged down the stretch, racking up impressive numbers (31-467-5) in the Giants' final seven games of 2019. The Giants used 11-personnel (3 WRs) 70% of the time in 2019, tied for second-most (Rams, behind Cincinnati at 74%) - which means Tate, Slayton, and Shepard will be on the field often. Since Daniel Jones is going to have to throw quite a bit this year, Slayton has plenty to build upon from his rookie season and could emerge as the top wide receiver on a team desperate for production at the position.
Robert Woods, LA Rams
Chad Parsons: Woods is settling in as an easy get as a team's WR2 in a draft build or even going heavy at running back and targeting Woods as a team's WR1. Woods has finished around this year's ADP level, or better, each of the past three seasons on a per-game basis. With no Brandin Cooks and a change-over at running back with no Todd Gurley, Woods has less competition for targets than last year with one of the higher floor outcomes among the non-elite receivers going rounds earlier in drafts.
Matt Waldman: Woods should be the least-impacted receiver when it comes to the scheme changes that the Rams enacted during the Steelers game in Week 10 of 2019 that led to more two-tight end sets. Expect another 1,000 yards from Woods, who is the most versatile receivers on the roster and in the NFL.
Jason Wood: Robert Woods only scored two receiving touchdowns last year, which is driving down his value. Touchdown production is volatile and hard to predict. Generally speaking, full-time players regress back toward a mean and it's smarter to invest in players coming off low touchdown seasons than overvaluing ones coming off high touchdown tallies. Aside from the obvious positive touchdown regression looming, Woods enters the season Jared Goff's unquestioned No. 1 thanks to Brandin Cooks' trade. Cooper Kupp will have a large role, too, but he's proven suited mainly for the slot.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Keenan Allen, LA Chargers
Jeff Haseley: Allen can be had at a tremendous discount this year due to the uncertain performance of his quarterback whether it's Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert. Allen and Philip Rivers built a long-lasting rapport with each other for several seasons, so that aspect of Allen's game won't be there in 2020, however, he is still the best receiver on the team, by far, and will be the favorite target for the offense no matter who is under center. The level of connection to the quarterback won't be the same, but it will improve as the year goes on. Any way you examine it, Allen will see volume, which is a vital factor in the success of a fantasy receiver. In addition to that, Allen is one of the best route-runners in the league. He will make it easy for his quarterback to get him the ball. One last nugget, Allen is motivated to prove that he is the best receiver in the AFC West, and he won't stop there.
Andy Hicks: After an injury-plagued start to his career, Keenan Allen has been a star. For the last three years, he has at least 97 receptions and 1196 receiving yards in every season, as well as six touchdowns each year since 2017. Why then does he seem unwanted at his current ADP? Does the departure of Philip Rivers affect Allen's production that much? That is the crux of the issue. The Chargers offensive coordinator is the same one that took over early in the 2019 season, the receiving and running back group hasn’t changed significantly. Will Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert shy away from their best receiver? Despite this being his eighth season, he is still well under 30 and seeking a new deal. His current ADP has a fail-safe mechanism of being well below his current production. A very solid WR2 to take when the opportunity presents itself.
A.J. Brown, Tennessee
Danny Tuccitto: Brown is one of only six wide receivers returning to their team in 2020 who rank among the Top 10 in both True Yards per Route Run (5th) and True Touchdowns per Route Run (7th). The other five? Michael Thomas, A.J. Green, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, and Amari Cooper -- not bad company for a second-year player. Considering that around 10 other wideouts not listed above are also being drafted ahead of him, Brown represents a potentially massive WR1 value.
Matt Waldman: Don't expect another 20 yards-per-catch season from Brown. However, 14-16 yards per catch is reasonable for this big, fast, powerful, and versatile route runner and ball carrier whom I think is the Magic Johnson of wide receivers. He can play every receiver position at a high level. This is something some of my fellow film watchers don't see because they base their studies off what they literally see and not the techniques that translate to routes they didn't. Expect Brown to build on his reception and touchdown totals this year as his insane yards-per-catch efficiency declines from his rookie year. There's no other receiver on this team who is in Brown's class, Brown's rapport with Tannehill was strong enough for another good year in 2020--especially because he can be moved around the formation.
D.J. Chark, Jacksonville
Phil Alexander: Fantasy gamers are drafting like they don't expect Chark to improve on his breakout sophomore season, which seems like a mistake. Accumulating a 70-1000-8 receiving line is rare for players who haven't turned 24 years old. When someone with Chark's dominant athletic traits reaches those milestones, we'd best pay attention. Chark enters the 2020 season without significant added competition for targets, with the trust of his starting quarterback, and playing for a team that should threaten for the most garbage time minutes in the NFL. We haven't seen Chark's ceiling yet by a long shot. Don't rule out a top-12 finish at the position.
Matt Waldman: Chark improved beyond my wildest expectations during his second season in the NFL. His statistical arrow still points upward because he was forced to work with Nick Foles later in the year, and the two lacked the same rapport he had with Gardner Minshew. The stat-heads often devalue Minshew, but his ability to see and attack the correct coverage flaws downfield and let Chark do what he does so well as a ball-winner was a massive reason why Chark had a strong year. The Jaguars receiving corps is good enough to give Chark occasional mismatches and more important, the offensive line should be healthy and give Minshew more time than last year. Expect Minshew and Chark to take another step forward as a tandem. Even if you keep Chark's totals close to his 2019 season, he's a value.
Jamison Crowder, NY Jets
Andrew Davenport: Despite finishing 2019 as WR26 in PPR scoring, Crowder is being pushed way down draft boards. If anything, the situation in New York has improved for Crowder. Darnold is healthy after missing three games last year, and Robby Anderson has moved on to Carolina. In his place is a rookie, and Breshad Perriman. Crowder earned 23% of the targets in New York last year, and now he is set up for another big market share which could easily eclipse that number. Additionally, subtracting the three games Darnold missed, Crowder had a 13 game line of 108 targets, 70 receptions, 759 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Those are fine numbers by themselves for where he's being drafted. If Darnold plays a full year, and Crowder sucks up some more targets, his ceiling pushes up into the WR2 range. He's being drafted far below this territory and has plenty of room to outperform his current draft slot.
Justin Howe: Crowder doesn't make for a very fun mid-round pick, but he does bring great PPR value. Over 13 games with Sam Darnold last year, Crowder turned 108 targets into 70 receptions, 758 yards, and 6 touchdowns. A full season would offer 80-catch potential as Darnold's clear-cut safety valve - something many of the dice-roll guys in this tier can't claim. Drafters in need of a secure mid-round anchor at WR3 could do much worse.
Michael Gallup, Dallas
Andrew Davenport: Those projecting CeeDee Lamb to overtake Gallup are missing some key factors. Lamb has had an abbreviated offseason to get acclimated to the NFL, his quarterback, and the Dallas offense. In addition, even if Lamb starts demanding targets with his play, Randall Cobb left behind 83 targets and over 800 receiving yards when he went to Houston. There is plenty of room for Lamb to grab a role and not affect Gallup at all. In fact, it might be an upset for Lamb to hit the numbers Cobb hit last year. Even beyond that, not many fantasy owners are recognizing that Gallup missed two games and still managed 66 catches (75 catch pace), but more impressively, he hit 1,100 yards in those 14 games. The Dallas offense is going to be one of the best in the league, so the fact that their number two receiver (who is really a 1B to Cooper's 1A) is slipping as far as he is means he is a strong bet to crush his ADP.
Jason Wood: Fantasy football enthusiasts have a tendency to grossly overrate rookie receivers, and in turn, they can illogically drop incumbent veterans down draft boards. While CeeDee Lamb has the pedigree to eventually be a bonafide No. 1 receiver, and Amari Cooper is signed long-term as the Cowboys top pass catcher, expecting Lamb to displace Gallup's snaps in 2020 is foolhardy. Gallup missed four games but otherwise was more productive than Amari Cooper. While healthy, Gallup had more targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. He's as well-rounded as Cooper, and has a built-in rapport with Dak Prescott; he's far too accomplished with too much upside to fall as far as he's dropping in drafts currently.
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh
Jeff Pasquino: If there was one bright spot in a forgettable Pittsburgh season last year, it was Diontae Johnson. Johnson led all rookie receivers with 59 catches, 680 yards, and five scores - without Ben Roethlisberger for nearly the entire season. Johnson is poised to start opposite of JuJu Smith-Schuster with Roethlisberger ready to return to action, making Johnson's upside in his second year potentially in the top-24 wideout range. Pittsburgh had over 5,000 passing yards just two years ago, and Johnson could certainly be in a position to get 20+% of the receiving numbers for the Steelers. In just his second season, the future is bright for Diontae Johnson in a wide receiver-friendly offense.
Jason Wood: Johnson is undervalued if Ben Roethlisberger is healthy and focused on returning to form in 2020. Johnson made the most of his opportunities as a rookie and finished with 59 receptions for 680 yards and five touchdowns in spite of playing most of the year with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges under center. Factoring in Roethlisberger's return with the normal progression a receiver makes from Year One to Year Two, Johnson is on a shortlist of young receivers who can leap into the 80-catch, 1,000-yard tier.
DeVante Parker, Miami
Sigmund Bloom: Parker gets no respect from the fantasy community after so many false starts, but last year he arrived and capped off his breakout season by repeatedly mossing defensive player of the year Stephon Gilmore to stagger the Patriots before the Titans sent them home. Preston Williams probably won't be 100% to start the season and Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns both opted out, giving Parker a clear path to being a target hog. Even if Ryan Fitzpatrick is benched for Tua Tagovailoa, the #5 overall pick is one of the most advanced rookie passers we've seen in a while.
Andy Hicks: There was no happier man in Miami following the departure of Adam Gase than Devante Parker. Parker was almost traded for minor draft capital while the current Jets coach was around, but once Gase left Parker turned into the WR1 he was drafted to be with the 14th overall pick in 2015. With Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns opting out, he becomes even more valuable this year. How undervalued is Parker this year? Let’s play a game. One receiver had 802 yards and five touchdowns over their last eight games, while another had 850 yards and five touchdowns. One is the first wide receiver off the board in Michael Thomas. The other is being drafted as a WR3. The Dolphins have reasonable continuity on offense and no logical reason for assuming Parker will regress. One of the easiest picks to make this year.
Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia
Chad Parsons: Rookie wide receivers are a tough fantasy bet in most circumstances. However, the Eagles were a black hole at the position in 2019 and drafted Reagor in Round 1 this offseason. Alshon Jeffery is not healthy and even if so is a shell of his former self athletically. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside was essentially a redshirt last year as a rookie. DeSean Jackson can rarely be trusted as a weekly option (health-wise and a stable role). This leaves a dynamic and highly productive college prospect in Reagor, who has a thick build and open pathway to strong snaps and targets right away. Carson Wentz is a top fantasy quarterback and the historical probability is in favor of his WR1 being a top-12 option in fantasy and, at a minimum, top-24. Reagor is the most likely Eagles receiver to achieve such status this season.
Jeff Tefertiller: Of the Eagles receivers, Reagor is the best bet to lead the team in receiving, especially with Alshon Jeffery expected to miss at least the first six games of the season.
Henry Ruggs, Las Vegas
Phil Alexander: The report Ruggs is set to start in the slot is a big deal. It means the Raiders aren't going to miscast him the way Carolina did to Curtis Samuel for most of last season. Ruggs' unnatural speed makes him a deep threat for sure, but now we know he's going to run plenty of routes designed to get the ball in his hands quickly so he can use his speed after the catch. It's possible Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden knew what they were doing when they made Ruggs the first wide receiver drafted this year. If Derek Carr isn't willing to take chances downfield, why not get him a wide receiver who can do the heavy-lifting on his own? Don't be shocked when Ruggs is force-fed and finishes as a top-30 fantasy option at wide receiver.
Jeff Haseley: I have essentially reversed my opinion on Ruggs since the draft and it is mostly based on the NFL's appeal with fast players getting into open space where they can excel after the catch. Mike Mayock and the Raiders drafted Ruggs to be their version of Tyreek Hill, Marquise Brown, or the like. An offensive weapon who can be utilized for his elusiveness and speed. That's how the league is shifting, especially with rules that prevent contact before the catch. Ruggs at 6'0, 190 pounds is not like many of the other speedsters before him. He has enough size to break tackles and fight for yards and fend off defenders. He's an athlete first, then a track star. I see Las Vegas utilizing him to the best of his ability and it may be more than we expect.
Emmanuel Sanders, New Orleans
Jeff Pasquino: Sanders finally gets to join a team with a strong quarterback and offense after languishing in both Denver and San Francisco for three seasons (ever since Peyton Manning retired). Now the veteran wideout lands in a great spot in New Orleans with a Saints team that has been desperately seeking a viable second wide receiver to start opposite of Michael Thomas. Just last season, New Orleans completed 36 touchdown passes, but only seven went to wide receivers not named Thomas. As a combined unit, the Saints' non-Thomas wideouts caught only 52 passes on 93 targets and under 700 total yards. Other players had to step up in the passing game, but I expect Sanders to more than fill the WR2 hole and post WR3-type numbers on a semi-regular basis, making him a solid flex option with higher upside on weeks where he finds the end zone.
Matt Waldman: Sanders' move from San Francisco to New Orleans could generate a tectonic shift in the alignment of the conference. Sanders was the only veteran receiver with skills to play inside and outside on the 49ers roster. He was easily the most trustworthy option that Jimmy Garoppolo had as a route runner. Now he moves to the Saints and takes a lot of focus off Michael Thomas. Expect Sanders to earn one of his best 2-3 seasons while with the Saints. He'll open up this offense and give Drew Brees a shot to approach some of the best season-long production of his career if they can gain rapport early. If not, expect Brees to exceed last year's production and Sanders to have a strong year, but not record production for either player. Either way, Sanders' production will make him a fantasy value.
Adam Thielen, Minnesota
Phil Alexander: Thielen's current ADP makes him the ideal WR1 when you start your draft with back-to-back running backs. Why are we holding a fluke hamstring injury against a player who hadn't missed a single game before 2019? Thielen was the cumulative WR13 through seven weeks before he banged into a padded temporary wall while catching a 25-yard touchdown pass against the Lions. With Stefon Diggs' 21% target market share from a year ago up for grabs, it would be surprising if Thielen doesn't get back to 150+ targets. Given similar target volume in 2017 and 2018, he finished as the WR7 and WR8 in PPR leagues, respectively. Take the injury discount for as long as it exists.
Jeff Haseley: The Vikings had only one player with 10+ targets in a game last year (Stefon Diggs) and he is no longer on the team. Had Adam Thielen not suffered a lingering hamstring injury, those results may have been different. Offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski who favored the run game is now the head coach of the Browns. Replacing him is a longtime veteran of the game, Gary Kubiak who will utilize the run and pass more evenly. The Vikings need to replace 101 targets in the offense due to the departure of Diggs to Buffalo. Thielen, who is one year removed from 113 receptions and 9 touchdowns on 155 targets, could once again return to the 150-target club being the primary receiving threat for Kirk Cousins on the Vikings passing game.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati
Andrew Davenport: It may seem like a negative that A.J. Green will be back to draw targets from Boyd's monstrous 147-target 2019 season. But that wasn't the case the last time these two were on the field together. In 2018 Green played the first eight games before going down for the year. Boyd's splits in those games are stark. In Weeks 1-8 he had 66 targets and 49 catches for 620 yards. When Green left for the year he put up only 42/27/408. Last year Boyd not only had to deal with coverages focusing on him, but he had inconsistent quarterback play. With the Bengals defense looking quite poor again this year, and the Bengals' tendency to throw the ball a lot under Zac Taylor, Boyd should see plenty of work. His target floor is at least 100 targets, and it is reasonable to think he'll challenge for at least 80 catches and 900 yards. Coming off two seasons of 1,000 yards and 166 total receptions, his ceiling stretches far above that floor so he represents strong value where he's being currently drafted.
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo
Justin Howe: There are indeed reasons to shy away from Diggs as he steps into a relatively low-volume passing game. The Bills don't throw much, but when they do, they don't feed many mouths. Last season, only two Bills topped 30 receptions - and it's safe to call Diggs one of the team's top two weapons for 2020. That keeps Diggs' floor comfortably high, and his ceiling has been on display for years. Diggs may not be in a spot to chase 100 catches, but he provides great ADP value over a handful of less proven guys in his range.
Will Fuller, Houston
Dan Hindery: Fuller is the clear WR1 for the Texans. Brandin Cooks has admitted he has an uphill battle trying to build a rapport with Watson and is less of a threat to Fuller’s WR1 status than ADP would indicate. Deshaun Watson is predicting a huge season and Pro Bowl bid for Fuller. He is due for a healthy season and reportedly showed up in fantastic shape for camp. Fuller is going off the board late enough that you can nab him as your WR4 and add a ton of upside to your wide receiver corps.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay
Danny Tuccitto: It's not typical for a player being drafted at Godwin's ADP to be considered a value. However, heading into 2020, he's one of only 10 wide receivers returning to their team who ranks among the Top 30 in all three categories relevant to True Fantasy points (i.e. 29th in True Receptions per Route Run, 15th in True Yards per Route Run, and 24th in True Touchdowns per Route Run). Furthermore, with a True average Depth of Target right around league-average, Godwin figures to be the primary target in Tom Brady's short-to-intermediate comfort zone.
Kenny Golladay, Detroit
James Brimacombe: Golladay put up a massive 2019 season with 116 targets and a stat line of 65/1190/11 and finished as the WR3 in fantasy. Golladay led all wide receivers with those 11 touchdowns and only had Matthew Stafford throwing him the ball for eight of 16 games. When you are looking to draft a WR1 this season and trying to get some built-in upside while not overpaying for it, Golladay should be one of your top targets. He is coming off a WR3 overall season where he did so with a backup quarterback for half of the season. No wide receiver has a higher ceiling than Kenny Golladay in 2020.
Mecole Hardman, Kansas City
Jason Wood: Hardman only had 26 receptions as a rookie, but don't let the dissuade your enthusiasm. He averaged 20.7 yards per reception and scored six touchdowns, which portend an explosive upside as a principal downfield threat for Patrick Mahomes II. Don't forget Hardman has only played wide receiver for three years, converting to the position after his freshman year at Georgia. The Chiefs are one of the league's elite offenses, and it's smart to own pieces of that puzzle. Don't be surprised if Hardman overtakes Sammy Watkins as the No. 2 receiver this season.
Marvin Jones, Detroit
Jordan McNamara: Marvin Jones finished as a WR11 in 2017 but missed significant time in 2018. He was back to form in 2019, with a WR16 performance through week 14 before missing the final three games. Jones has the ability to perform well on the perimeter which is a great fit for Matthew Stafford. In a year that has a short offseason, betting on the stability of a Stafford-Jones rapport is a sound strategy.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle
Sigmund Bloom: Lockett was a top-10 wide receiver before he got hurt last year and talk of Antonio Brown signing with Seattle has been slowed by the announcement of an eight-game suspension. Lockett has proven chemistry with Russell Wilson and the better DK Metcalf gets, the more likely Lockett won't face safety help over the top. The possibility that the Seattle offense has another uptick in passing attempts only enhances Lockett's ceiling.
Breshad Perriman, NY Jets
Justin Howe: There's certainly bust potential for Perriman, stepping into his fourth NFL offense without a 700-yard season to date. But he's a true burner: over the past TWO seasons, he's produced 20+ yards on 19 of his 55 receptions. The Jets offense isn't particularly stable, but Anderson drew a healthy role (22% of targets) and produced gobs of big plays as Sam Darnold's deep threat. Perriman projects great into that role - and his upside goes far beyond his modest ADP. A 1,000-yard blowup wouldn't be a surprise.
Allen Robinson, Chicago
James Brimacombe: In Robinson's six career seasons he has played a full 16 games just three times. In those three seasons, he has had at least 150 targets and finished as WR4, WR31, and WR12 (last season). Robinson is coming off a 153 target, 98 reception, 1147 receiving yards, and seven touchdown season for the Bears who were lead by Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. The Bears now have a slight upgrade in Nick Foles and Robinson is heading into his third season in Chicago with high promise. The price you can draft Robinson now you get one of the safest floors but also have a shot at some high-ceiling games and potential to get a top ten wide receiver without paying a high price in drafts.
Sterling Shepard, NY Giants
David Dodds: Shepard's 2019 season was one he wishes to forget. He started the year with a broken finger and then had the season derailed with two concussions. But in his 10 games, he did play, he averaged 8.5 targets a game. He is expected to be the WR1 in this offense, but his ADP is a one to two rounds later than Darius Slayton. At age 26, I suspect we see a rebound to the player who had improved his yardage totals every year from 2016-2018.
Mike Williams, LA Chargers
Justin Howe: Williams has been all but tossed aside by drafters all offseason; it seems not many are considering the wild per-snap upside in play here. He'll never be a volume dominator with target hog Keenan Allen around. But Williams has proven the ability to maximize his targets tremendously. He's outstanding on contested balls down the field - throws new quarterback Tyrod Taylor loves to put up. Williams has posted a dazzling 10.7 yards per target over the past TWO years, and he was the league's most dominant red-zone receiver as recently as 2018. It shouldn't surprise anyone if he tops 1,000 yards and 10 scores even without big volume.
