#Trendspotting: Week 16

Photo: USA Today Sports

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

• All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2019 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Looks Can Be Deceiving
• Now #Trending
• Under Pressure
• The Weakest Links

Looks Can Be Deceiving

Viewing raw "defense vs. position" (DvP) stats can be misleading, as it makes no consideration for the strength of opponents. So, in this section, we're going to compare our Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS) over the last five weeks vs. raw DvP for the entire season and find notable deltas between the two. The idea is to find defenses to target that other DFS players might not.

"NSoS" = Normalized Strength of Schedule Ranking
(see the link in the paragraph above for an explanation on NSoS)
"DvP" = Defense vs. Position Ranking
(raw fantasy points allowed to that position)
"Delta" = NSoS-DvP

Commentary

• Over the past five weeks, Dallas has allowed 22.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, sixth-most in the NFL.
• In that span, Dallas is allowing 31 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, fourth-most, and 0.6 rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, tied for the most.
• Over the past five weeks, Carson Wentz has rushed for 62 yards, 17th-most among quarterbacks.
• Over the past five weeks, Tennessee has allowed 16.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, 19th-most.
• In that stretch, Tennessee has faced Nick Foles, Jacoby Brissett, Derek Carr, and Deshaun Watson.

Action Items

Based on this exercise, Wentz would appear to be a sneaky play, but much of the production Dallas has yielded to quarterbacks has been on the ground. Drew Brees is an interesting potential GPP play. The floor is low due to this being his first "potentially uncomfortable" weather game this season.

Since Brees returned from injury, New Orleans has played two road games. One was at Tampa Bay, and the other was in the dome in Atlanta. But there are multiple quarterbacks priced lower in DFS who have a lower ceiling and a lesser matchup.

Commentary

• Over the past five weeks, Cleveland has allowed 25.9 fantasy points to opposing running backs, 11th-most in the NFL.
• In the past two weeks, Cleveland has allowed 161 and 143 rushing yards to running backs. They also yielded 71 receiving yards in Week 14 vs. Cincinnati.
• Baltimore gains 49.3% of its total yardage via the rush, the highest ratio in the NFL.
• Baltimore scores 24.2% of its points via rushing touchdowns, the 13th-highest ratio.
• Cleveland allows 38.2% of its total yardage via the rush, the third-highest ratio.
• Cleveland allows 27.4% of its points via rushing touchdowns, the eighth-highest ratio.
• Cleveland allows 4.9 yards per rush, fifth-most.
• Tennessee gains 37.0% of its total yardage via the rush, the sixth-highest ratio.
• New Orleans allows 27.6% of its yardage via the rush, the fourth-lowest ratio.

Action Items

Mark Ingram's usage in the passing game makes him a difficult play to select in PPR formats, but in a game Baltimore should handle, Ingram should be in consideration. Not captured in the stats (unless deemed the reason their rush defense has folded recently) is the potential that Cleveland has given up on the season.

Also of note is that Baltimore doesn't score many rushing touchdowns relative to how they gain yards. Cleveland's defense, however, allows a top-10 ratio of yardage via the rush and scoring via rushing touchdowns. Ingram is a solid GPP play with multi-touchdown upside.

Derrick Henry is another player with high upside each week despite a limited role in the passing game. New Orleans doesn't allow a high percentage of yardage via the run, but that's what makes Henry a viable GPP play. New Orleans is favored to win, but a scenario where Tennessee keeps things close and/or controls the game isn't far-fetched.

Commentary

• Dallas has yielded the following performances to receivers recently: Julian Edelman (8-93-0), Cole Beasley (6-110-1), Anthony Miller (3-42-1), Cooper Kupp (6-41-1). All of these players are high on the wide receiver pecking order for their teams but also contend with players at other positions for target share.
• Over the past five weeks, Kansas City has allowed 22.7 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, second-fewest in the NFL.
• In that stretch, Kansas City has faced Denver in the snow with a rookie quarterback, a struggling New England team, and Oakland's poor offense. Even with New England's struggles, Edelman had 95 yards and a touchdown.
• On the season, Kansas City is allowing 26.5 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, second-fewest.
• Kansas City's season includes the stretch mentioned above, plus a game vs. Minnesota without Adam Thielen, a game vs. Green Bay without Davante Adams, and another game against the lowly Denver and Oakland offenses.

Action Items

Don't be afraid to utilize Philadelphia players. Dallas' defense is slipping, especially without Leighton Vander Esch, who is expected to be out again. There is more in the next section on which Philadelphia backup wide receiver is more appealing.

Kansas City is a prime example of how stats without context can be misleading. They've faced a relatively easy wide receiver schedule, which boosts their ranking against wide receivers. But Anthony Miller is on fire of late. Don't be afraid to use a hot player against a defense whose "toughness" can be minimized.

Since returning to the lineup full-time back in Week 11, Anthony Miller is fantasy's WR8 (88.1 PPR points) and he's 6th in the NFL in receptions per game (6.6) in this span.

Gets Chiefs secondary next that has allowed 6th-most receptions allowed to slot wideouts this year.

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) December 16, 2019

Commentary and Action Items

Tight end stats are noisy, so we're bunching commentary and actions together. For this position, offense seems more predictive than defense. And two of the offenses above have been utilizing tight ends frequently in recent weeks.

Tyler Higbee is averaging 21.8 fantasy points in three games since Gerald Everett has been on the shelf. Higbee has finished as the TE1, TE6, and TE3 in that stretch. Higbee is a locked-in TE1 for season-long championship week and the best combination of upside and value at tight end if playing the "Saturday only" DFS slate.

In Baltimore, Lamar Jackson has been lifting DFS lineups above cash lines all season long. And the "who is Jackson's best stack partner" question is often split between Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. This week, Andrews should be the preferred selection. Cleveland's DvP stats look good, but their schedule has been full of teams that don't utilize the tight end position.

Cleveland has faced the following TE1s this season:

• Mark Andrews (4-31-1)
• George Kittle (6-70-1)

Notably, they also allowed 3-115-1 to Noah Fant before his emergence that came with the quarterback transition to Drew Lock. Andrews has overall TE1 upside this week if Cleveland keeps the game close and encourages Baltimore to pass more than game script implies.

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Now #Trending

Injuries and depth chart changes are a part of life in the NFL. But how teams handle them can lead sharp fantasy players to better decisions than their opponents. Let's look at some situations that have changed in the past few weeks.

Detroit's Quarterback Change

Once Matthew Stafford's injury became too much to bear and Jeff Driskel landed on Injured Reserve, Detroit moved to David Blough. Beginning on Thanksgiving Day, here are how Detroit's wide receivers have fared with Blough. Note: Marvin Jones was also placed on I.R. prior to the team's Week 15 game, thus introducing another shift in workload.