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The Top 10: Week 7

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 7
By Matt Waldman, October 14, 2019

The Top 10: Week 7
Photo: USA Today Sports

Mission

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with the wrong process.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

As always I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

Straight, No Chaser: Week 6 Cliff's Notes

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points:

  1. The indictment of the Rams' offense should be aimed at the offensive line and Sean McVay's refusal to address his simple scheme rather than pointing the finger at Jared Goff.
  2. Sam Darnold returned with a vengeance against the Cowboys and raises the fantasy value of Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder, and Demaryius Thomas.
  3. The Falcons-Cardinals game was a matchup of two solid-but-flawed offenses against terrible defenses that generated false positives for fantasy players. Austin Hooper's performance will likely be a season high but he remains an every-week starter. The same can't be said of Devonta Freeman. As for David Johnson and Chase Edmonds, both are talents but their production is the result of a Falcons defense that can cover or tackle and don't presume Kyler Murray has turned the corner in the red zone.
  4. The Texans offense employed a pair of concepts to beat the Chiefs and the beneficiaries were Carlos Hyde, Darren Fells, DeAndre Hopkins, and Will Fuller. Fells is worth consideration if your fantasy team is struggling at tight end.
  5. Tyreek Hill appears read to return to elite fantasy production but the opposition continues tweaking Patrick Mahomes II' ankle injury and its limiting the quarterback's upside.
  6. The narrative that Baker Mayfield's struggles are mostly related to offensive line and receiver play is mass denial about Mayfield's limitations reaching its apex.
  7. Remain patient with Dante Pettis if you have the luxury at the end of your bench because the past two weeks show that the 49ers consider him a pivotal threat in the passing game and he's making good on more of them than the overall volume data may indicate.
  8. Stefon Diggs had a huge week thanks to the Vikings' play-action game and a porous Philadelphia secondary.
  9. Miles Sanders' production is an excellent example of his team scouting the limitations of the Vikings' excellent linebacker corps and exploiting it with the vertical passing game.
  10. This week's Fresh Fish:
    1. Will Fuller dropped three passes and could have had another huge day.
    2. Jameis Winston is the best interception machine in the NFL.
    3. The Falcons defense is a welcome wagon for prominent starters and worth consideration for fantasy fringe plays.
    4. The Cardinals defense is a haven for tight end and running back production.
    5. Perimeter wide receivers love the Eagles secondary.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. The Defrauding of Jared Goff

Jared Goff is not a great quarterback, but he's good one stuck in a bad situation. This is not how most people see it.

Why does it matter to you as a fantasy player? Because if you play in dynasty leagues and Goff gets an upgraded offensive line or finds his way to another team with a good offensive line, he'll be a value play for those of you wise enough to see the accumulated intelligence on him and spot the holes.

Most are still buying into the idea that Sean McVay is the NFL's Pygmailion who transformed the no-talent Goff into a Pro-Bowl player and Super Bowl quarterback. There's no doubt that McVay's offense paired with the talents of Goff and Gurley helped both players reach their respective zeniths of production.

McVay's scheme is a simple and potentially devastating offense that creates continuity with run and pass calls and can create huge holes in opposing defenses when operating at peak efficiency.

Just like most modern offenses.

Schemes are only as good as the players that execute them. If you recall, the Rams added multiple offensive linemen, Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins, and Cooper Kupp prior to Goff's breakout season.

Surrounding talent matters greatly to quarterback play—especially passers lacking great escapability. Take away Tom Brady's offensive line and don't let him audible or make in-game adjustments and you essentially have a similar player to Goff—just older, slower, and weaker-armed.

What we don't know about Goff is whether he has the mental aptitude to make pre-snap adjustments because McVay runs this offense like he's playing a video game and his offense are pixels on a screen. The mass assumption is that if Goff were capable of making these adjustments then McVay would have granted them.

While possible Goff is "football stupid" for a quarterback, it's unlikely. Goff has shown the skills of a franchise quarterback for the past three years when he has quality offensive line play and underrated play even when he occasionally hasn't.

Operating below the buzz of Mahomes and Ryan Fitzpatrick is Jared Goff, who continues performing well enough that every former NFL player-turned-broadcast-analyst who earns an opportunity to cover one of Goff's games comes away genuinely impressed. This week, Goff made a few throws that set him apart from many young passers in the NFL.

Media and fans still don't seem aware of Goff's arm strength as a deep thrower. Passers with greater arm strength than Matt Ryan would have to hitch like Mahomes did in that previously showcased bombing that wasn't to Tyreek Hill this weekend to deliver the pass Goff unloads with ease in this target below.

It's no wonder that the Rams coveted Cooks this spring. Cooks doesn't have Watkins' ball skills against tight, physical coverage, but Cooks can do everything else. Goff can also fit the ball into areas where Cooks doesn't have to be that type of receiver.

Although Cooks isn't a physical guy, he has the fortitude to handle targets in traffic. This completion is an excellent throw between defenders on third down.

One of Goff's best traits is his cool under pressure. He makes a lot of tight-pocket plays. Here's one where he has to place it over a linebacker and away from an oncoming defensive back to protect receiver Robert Woods.

Goff takes a shot on this throw below but still delivers where only Woods can make the play.

The Rams have a loaded roster with an elite defense, a strong offensive line, and enough weapons to test any opponent. Goff may remain under the fantasy radar but he's ninth in passing yards and tops in yards per attempt. Don't sleep on him if you need to make moves that could leave him as your starter.

Yes, Goff's pressure stats are bad, which will lead some to claim I'm cherry-picking his good moments. They aren't taking into consideration that McVay isn't allowing Goff to make adjustments, which places Goff at a greater disadvantage than his peers. I'm showing you these good moments because they are technically-advanced and skillful reactions that other quarterbacks in the NFL who are given greater resources pre-snap (Alex Smith, David Carr, Kirk Cousins, Marcus Mariota, and even Matt Ryan and Tom Brady) don't often look as good in similar situations.

Jared Goff remains a point of contention among football analysts. Now that the skeptics can't find proof of AAA batteries in Goff's back, the Sean McVay remote control, or the puppet strings that they claimed existed with Goff, they're now left with discussing the ease and difficulty of the throws he's making.

Even a play like below seems to be regarded with the same unreality as if one were claiming the sky was red, green, and yellow plaid.

Quarterback is the most difficult position in sports. It follows that quarterback analysis is the most difficult in sportswriting. One of the many biases it generates is the inability to recognize special play from quarterback styles that aren't in that analyst's wheelhouse of familiarity or understanding.

Goff isn't remotely on the athletic scale of Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers. He leans on his technical foundations. Think of him as Matt Ryan with a better vertical game. The ability to anticipate the break of this route despite a defensive tackle interrupting the rhythm and flow of the process and still complete the pass where only the receiver can catch the target is special.

Does it make Goff a special quarterback? He's closer to that moniker than many believe but for the sake of remaining methodical and conservative about judging quarterbacks, let's say he's a good quarterback who is capable of authoring special moments — not as many as the top echelon but enough that it's becoming more noticeable each month.

When Goff has an offensive line, he can make plays under pressure when multiple defenders don't compromise the pocket. Or, when opposing defenses figure out plays and the quarterback isn't allowed to switch to a potentially different solution.

We saw this against the Lions in Week 14 last year (No.3 on the list in this column), Week 15 against the Bears (also No.3 on this list), and during the Super Bowl. Imagine the hubris it takes to enter the biggest game of your career as a head coach without making any game-planning adjustments against a master strategist known for studying opponents and finding ways to dismantle them.

Muhammad Ali had as much hubris as any competitor in modern history and even he changed his strategy to fight George Foreman. But McVay, a second-year head coach had devised an offense so good and had such great athletes that there was no way Bill Belichick could limit it? C'mon...

Belichick credited the Lions' game as a resource for foiling McVay's scheme but because we examine the result—a bad game for Goff—instead of the process, we ignore that McVay walked its unarmed offense into a sword fight with the Mountain and thought it could win on the merits of a pose-down.

Since the Super Bowl, opponents have continued to stifle the screen game and wide zone running game but we've seen McVay remain stubborn to his offensive principles. McVay finally began running split zone against the Browns in the second half of the game. However, that's been the extent of his adjustments.

Trap plays are really good solutions for offenses where defenses stifle outside run plays and they don't require anything special from the quarterback. We haven't even seen a minimal adjustment of this type.

Combine McVay's intractable attitude about his scheme with a loss of offensive linemen pivotal to operating the scheme and here we are:

People are presuming that Goff can't read a defense, which, based on what he's done in the difficult situations where he's performed well with multiple progression reads and difficult decisions under pressure that I showed from previous seasons, is unlikely. The most sensible stance is that McVay, a first-year coach, is over-coaching this offense and controlling its execution with too heavy a hand.

He's worshipping at the alter of scheme over talent and allowing his quarterback to make decisions. This offense is slowly committing suicide by variations of screen passes and the football media intelligentsia is misplacing its blame on Goff. My friend Eric Stoner, who occasionally contributes at the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, sums it up well:

The analytics types are drawn to simplicity—McVay, Chip Kelly, and Seattle's Cover 3. These are really simple schematic structures. When your roster is filled with talent it works great unless your opponent has equal to greater talent stifle it.

When you lack great talent but the opposing defense hasn't figured out the scheme, it also looks great. However when you can't win at the line of scrimmage, these schemes look just as garbage as any other scheme. Winning at the line of scrimmage is still all that matters.

Sean McVay and those in love with schemes like these are like Scare the Lion. One of the underlying themes of the Lion King is the battle between wisdom and intellect.

Scar—who has been harmed by the physical world—is a representation of the arrogance of the rational mind. He is a weaker physical specimen constantly conspiring to take down the wiser king.

This is a lot like the war between intellect and wisdom that's occuring in football. As a result, we wind up with over-intellectualized takes.

Mays is an excellent football writer but I'm with Scott Polcek on this one. Goff may not be on par with Russell Wilson, Mahomes, Watson, or Brady but give him the supporting talent, and he is just a notch below—at worst.

If the Rams improve its line play or McVay has an epiphany about coaching, Goff could be a serious rebound candidate. Right now, he's a weekly match-up play against defenses that don't mount a serious pass rush and have disicpline issues against the run.

2. Sam Darnold No longer Has Mono, but His Play Is Infectious

Sam Darnold looked every bit like a first-round quarterback entering his second season. He and the Jets upset the Cowboys on Sunday and there was a lot to like about Darnold's work over the middle, in the vertical game, and against pressure.

Demaryius Thomas looked effective in the middle of the middle of the field on intermediate targets. He's now a reasonable bye-week flex-play with potential promise as a permanent flex because of his route running, remaining physicality, and experience.

Jamison Crowder is likely the safest play for fantasy managers because he's targeted in the underneath zone—resulting in steady volume—and he's earning designed plays to get him free up the seams for vertical targets.

Robby Anderson obviously has the most upside. He's been getting open all year but he finally has a quarterback capable of finding him with accurate throws. Look for Anderson to have fantasy WR2 upside moving forward.

After a difficult matchup with New England, the Jets get Jacksonville, Miami, Washington, the Giants, Oakland, Cincinnati, and Baltimore. Darnold and the Jets are strong second-half stretch canddiate for fantasy based on the schedule alone. Darnold's play makes this passing game a lot more attractive.

3. Falcons-Cardinals: Making Sense of the False-Positive Fantasy Game of the Week

Will Fuller's 217-yard and 3-touchdown performance came against a predictable and overwhelmed Atlanta defense last week. This week, he dropped three passes.

T.J. Hockenson looked like the man to overtake Mike Ditka's longstanding rookie receiving record for tight ends after his debut in Arizona. Hockenson has continued delivering promising moments but with inconsistent production overall.

Look at the defensive game logs for the Falcons and Cardinals and then the subsequent offensive game logs for their opponents, and it's easy to understand why Week 6's tilt between the birds would deliver a number of false positives for their respective offenses.

Let's begin with Devonta Freeman.

The gap plays are a new development this year, but these runs require athletic linemen to execute. The Cardinals defense has the athletes to a degree, but it's an undisciplined group. Consider Freeman's performance validation that he remains talented enough to produce when given the support that he needs.

Until the Falcons' offensive line delivers against a better unit, Freeman is a match-up play for below-average defenses. After the Rams' game next week, don't expect much more than flex-appeal after the bye-week because the schedule lacks cupcakes.

Austin Hooper has been a starter all year, so the fact that Atlanta picked on linebacker Hassan Reddick is no surprise.

Hooper remains a prime third-down option for Matt Ryan and is a must-start. This can't be said for Chase Edmonds. The talented young running back is absolutely worth adding to your teams from the waiver wire if available because the Cardinals are using him and David Johnson in tandem—one in the backfield and one split from the formation.

As good as this pair looked, let's remember the back-seven of the Atlanta Falcons defense has struggled all year with diagnosis, maintaining angles, and wrapping up ball carriers. Like the Carolina Panthers' defense, the Falcons used a lot of zone agaisnt Arizona during the first half of the game. Unlike Carolina, Atlanta didn't employ it well and the Cardinals earned a lot of yards after the catch.

David Johnson remains a must-start due to skill, volume, and use away from the line of scrimmage. Edmonds is a match-up play. Arizona faces the Giants,Saints, 49ers (twice), Buccaneers, Rams, Steelers, Browns, and Seahawks. The Giants, Buccaneers, and Rams are the most appearling for Edmonds.

You'll also probably read that the Cardinals' red-zone offense is coming around. If they continue trending upward three weeks from now, believe it. Otherwise, treat this game as a false-positive.

Wise fantasy players would sell high on Cardinals and Falcons players.

4. The Two Offensive Concepts That Wrecked the Chiefs And Fantasy Implications For Houston

Last week, I showed how the Texans stacked its two best receivers for big plays against the Falcons. This weekend, NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein mentioned on Twitter that Houston added a wrinkle to its RPO game to give the Chiefs fits.

Sure enough, the Texans used this wrinkle with some productive variations for Darren Fells, Carlos Hyde, and even Keke Coutee.

Fells—and to a lesser extent, Jordan Akins—also earned targets as intermediate-range options.

This concept broke down later in the fourth quarter when the Chiefs successfully covered the tight end peeling to the flat off the RPO exchange because it forced Deshaun Watson to seek another reciever downfield and by that time, his offensive line was too far downfield to legally throw the football. Laremy Tunsil incurred two illegal man downfield penalties in the red zone late in the game.

Still, this is a nice package of plays based on an effective concept that serve as an effective substitute for the ground game. Look for Fells to earn 3-4 of these per game if defenses don't adjust with a linebacker during the first half of contests. In other words, they'll likely adjust but if you're desperate for a bye-week tight end, Fells is worth your consideration for at least another week against the Colts.

Although Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins earned middling PPR production, at best, they split 21 targets in this game and kept the chains moving thanks to the short-passing game out of the stack formation I highlighted last week. Mark Schofield highlighted it again, this week.

Look for Fuller and Hopkins to rebound because in contrast to the RPO wrinkle introduced on Sunday, opposing defenses haven't generated solutions against the stack in two weeks.

5. Tyreek Hill Is Ready To Resume Elite Production, But Is Patrick Mahomes II?

Although Hill caught several short routes, including a jerk route for a touchdown, and dropped and over route when he jumped unnecessarily for the target and allowed Bradley Roby a shot at the ball, this is the only play you need to see if you're wondering about Hill's readiness to resume his role as an elite fantasy receiver:

The real question we should be asking is whether Patrick Mahomes II's ankle can remain stable enough for him to make pinpoint-accurate throws on routes where he must use traditional mechanics to achieve power and accuracy. Mahomes's ankled looked healthy enough in this respect until another tangle-up with the defense tweaked it for the second time in consecutive games.

For part of the second quarter, Mahomes was reticent to place weight on it during his throws and it hurt his intermediate and vertical accuracy for at least a series. He walked off the injury sufficiently enough to remain in the game and perform effectively.

However, I have concerns about his ability to drive the ball if it's tweaked yet again against Denver in Week 7. The Chiefs don't have a bye week until Week 12. This could become a fantasy problem if Mahomes can't keep his feet clean for the next five weeks.

I don't see how he does. Even three weeks would prove helpful, but the Broncos, Packers, and Vikings have formidable pass rushers. Expect competent starter production but a decrease in upside despite Hill's return.

I wouldn't trade Mahomes because I'm projecting a worst-case scenario. The best-case? Hill's return paired with Mecole Hardman thwarts current coverages and we return to pick-your-poison offensive production that leads to massive stats for Mahomes.

6. The Denial Over Baker Mayfield's Limitations As A Quarterback Is REaching Its Apex

We like simple answers. One or the other. Black or white. Up or down. Good or bad.

We get bent out of shape when we want to judge a person or situation and the answer is "one and the other," and "good and bad."

For the past several weeks, writers and fans didn't like the idea that Baker Mayfield's accuracy has been good enough for receiver's to catch the football but bad enough to warrant legitimate criticism.

Franchise quarterbacks don't have chronic issues with timing routes that have no reason to be less than pinpoint accurate. None of these plays involve massive pressure. Even if they did, these are timing routes that should be pinpoint if there's enough room to release the ball.

In other words, these issues aren't linked to the offensive line. This led to me wonder if last year's tape revealed these issues the way his college tape did but most of us glossed over it because the Browns were winning, the line was better, and Mayfield was producing?

Against Atlanta in Week 11, I noted an improvement of accuracy thanks to in-rhythm throws off single reads, which has always been his wheelhouse. However, I also noted continued difficulty against tight man coverage when he's forced to make athletic throws from the pocket.

His work against the Steelers last year (No.6 on this list) reveals similar problems that we're seeing this year—poor red-zone placement, general accuracy on routes where pinpoint accuracy is the standard, and difficulty against pressure that keeps him in the pocket.

Mayfield led NFL quarterbacks in turnovers entering Week 6. He needs a strong offensive line, ground game, and top receivers to deliver and the Browns only have the ground game and (some) the receivers. He's not Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, or Brett Favre.

He's not even Jared Goff in ability.

However, give him the infrastructure and he can produce on par with these quarterbacks. Just not this year. He's a match-up play for weaker defenses that he'll see after Week 10.

7. Patience On Pettis

Is there enough volume for Pettis to be fantasy-relevant? At this point, he's a flex option because the 49ers run the ball at a high volume and George Kittle is the team's most-targeted receiver.

However, there's promise to remain patient with Pettis because Deebo Samuel's game, right now, is an athlete that can catch and not a technician with a complete route tree and Marquise Goodwin does this too often...

Because Samuel is a desirable gadget player and Goodwin frustrates, Pettis is earning more targets and making good on them—despite Monday night's dropped pass that would have gone for a touchdown.

Third downs and red-zone targets are becoming more the norm with the now-healthy Pettis. The volume isn't starter-worthy but Washington, Arizona, Baltimore, Atlanta, and Los Angeles (again) are all appealing matchups even at his current target rate and his usage from the slot.

8. THE KIRK COUSINS (MIKE ZIMMER) KISS-AND-MAKE-UP TOUR WEEK 2: STEFON DIGGS

Last week, Cousins and Adam Thielen made amends. This week, the pouting Stefon Diggs got his love. Although he didn't make the most of it, he came fairly close

.

Even as a prime detractor of Cousins, I've been calling for this passing offense to get right. With more prolific offenses on the schedule, don't look at this performance as the Vikings throwing a bone Diggs' way. The Vikings will need him for Detroit, Kansas City, Dallas, Seattle, and the Chargers.

Expect inconsistency from the Vikings' passing game—just like last year—but when the Vikings have to score against teams with proflic offenses and questionable defenses, Diggs is a solid start.

9. Miles Sanders: An Example of Advanced Scouting of the OPposition

Miles Sanders had performed well as a receiver despite repeatedly demonstrating a lack of patience and conceptual understanding of blocking schemes at Penn State and as a rookie. This week, the Eagles did an excellent job finding ways to exploit Sanders' speed and hands against a good linebacker corps. First, the Eagles exploited Eric Kendricks, an excellent zone defender against the pass but not a speedy coverage player one-on-one.

Next, Philadelphia foiled Anthony Barr, an ahtletic option who can get tangled againt rub routes.

Right now, Jordan Howard is significantly better as a runner due to his conceptual understanding of blocking schemes. However, the Eagles have always found consistent use for receiving backs and Sanders is proving his mettle. Dallas's linebackers will be a tough matchup for Sanders next week, but Buffalo, New England, Miami, New York, and Washington make Howard a solid flex-option.

10. FRESH FISH: Week 6

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: Will Fuller's drops.

Falcons Defense = False Positive. Still, Fuller is good enough that, his occasional relapses of serial drops notwithstanding, he's an every-week consideration.

Let's move onto additional specimens from the fish market:

  • Jameis Winston: Winston is an interception machine in an offense with weapons fit for an All-Pro producer. There are no excuses.
  • Falcons Defense: Expect big weeks from most consistent starters and consider fringe fantasy plays. Slot receivers, tight ends, or backs with receiving skill are all sneaky-good plays here.
  • Cardinals Defense: Tight ends are likely to earn season or career highs against this unit. Mediocre-to-bad run games should get healthy as well.
  • Eagles Secondary: This secondary gives up big plays—even when healthy.

Thanks again for all of your feedback with this column. Good luck next week and may your bold call come true.

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
Tags Analysis Jordan Akins Robbie Chosen Anthony Barr Tom Brady Brandin Cooks Kirk Cousins Keke Coutee Jamison Crowder Sam Darnold Stefon Diggs Rasul Douglas Chase Edmonds Darren Fells Ryan Fitzpatrick Devonta Freeman Will Fuller V Jared Goff Marquise Goodwin Mecole Hardman Jr. Darrell Henderson Jr. Tyreek Hill T.J. Hockenson Austin Hooper DeAndre Hopkins Jordan Howard Carlos Hyde David Johnson Eric Kendricks George Kittle Cooper Kupp Patrick Mahomes II Marcus Mariota Baker Mayfield Kyler Murray Dante Pettis Bradley Roby Aaron Rodgers Matt Ryan Deebo Samuel Miles Sanders Adam Thielen Sammy Watkins Deshaun Watson Russell Wilson Jameis Winston Robert Woods

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