Players To Watch With New Coaching Staffs: AFC

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Part one of this series reviewed the new NFC coaching hires. Now in part two, the AFC is up. This piece is an opportunity to examine where rosters stand with current players and how they can add additional contributors via free agency and the draft.

MIAMI DOLPHINS - MIKE MCDANIEL

Offensive Coordinator - Frank Smith (Chargers Run Game Coordinator)

Scheme - A wide zone stretch run scheme from the Mike Shanahan roots. There is comfort in knowing what type of production to project from the pieces within the system. The system favors speed and backs that can stretch horizontally before identifying a seam, sticking their foot in the ground, and exploding upfield. The passing game works as an offshoot of the run game in this scheme, with heavy boot actions or run-pass option (RPO) action. The benefit is Tua Tagovailoa is comfortable operating within these actions, and they have been his most successful plays early in his career.

The open question for dynasty purposes becomes, "how much production is currently on the roster?" The Dolphins have four skill players who saw over 100 snaps currently under contract: Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, Myles Gaskin, and Adam Shaheen. Gaskin saw himself phased out of the offense as the year progressed and his fit in a speed-based offense is dubious. Parker has cemented himself as a perpetual disappointment. That leaves Waddle to emerge as the true star, a path he began in 2021. Given the current contract status, no offense is adding as much skill production in the offseason.

Shallow Sleeper - Tua Tagovailoa, Quarterback

Tagovailoa barely qualified within the top 24 quarterbacks at 14.69, and he enters a scheme that has led Matt Ryan to an MVP season and made Jimmy Garoppolo and Jared Goff fantasy viable assets. After starting his career with a head coach that showed the minimum amount of belief possible, Tagovailoa has a second chance. The heavy play-action and RPO play into his comfort zone. The real intriguing fantasy factor is boot action off a zone rush. Even though Tagovailoa has only exceeded 30 rush yards twice in his 23 game career, he has the athleticism to consistently create a rush floor for fantasy purposes if the scheme can open him to uncovered runs.

Deep Dynasty Sleeper - Lynn Bowden Jr, Running Back / Wide Receiver

And now, the elephant in the room, the "Deebo Role." The emergence of Deebo Samuel in a hybrid role saw him add carries from the running back position in the wide zone scheme to his standard receiver role defined the 49ers season. A massive caveat needs to be attached that it could simply be a one-time use of an exceptionally talented player. But if McDaniels wishes to continue the personnel advantages of flexing a player through these roles, Bowden is the only player qualified on the roster. A "do everything" talent at Kentucky, Bowden led Kentucky in both rushing (1,468) and receiving (348) while finishing second in passing yards (403) his final season. He flipped between a receiver and running back already in the NFL and could land with sneaky value.

Potential Free Agent Target - Cordarrelle Patterson, Running Back

Before Samuel emerged, Patterson was the early season breakout story. If the Dolphins are committed to filling a hybrid role, no player on the market is more qualified. Patterson has the speed to see significant usage inside the wide zone concept and the versatility to work in a receiver role. Patterson and Austin Ekeler were the only players to exceed 600 rush yards and 500 receiving yards in 2021. Patterson has been vocal about his desire to remain in Atlanta, but money talks.

NFL Draft Target - Chris Olave, Wide Receiver, Ohio St.

There is a level of irony in the Dolphins 2022 draft class. The team does not pick until 29, initially held by San Francisco as part of the Trey Lance trade. The team made a bet on their pick vs. the 49ers' pick and lost, only for a former 49ers coach to hold influence. The team needs a long-term complement to Waddle, and Olave has the versatility to work in multiple field areas, similar to the usage shown by Brandon Aiyuk. This pick would round out the receiver room and give support if the team decides to use Waddle in more creative roles.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS - DOUG PEDERSON

Offensive Coordinator - Press Taylor (Colts Sr Offensive Assistant)

Scheme - A west coast base system that traditionally used heavy 12 personnel, putting the quarterback on the move off play action. In his years in Philadelphia, Pederson utilized an advantage at tight end with Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert comprising the best one-two punch at the position in the league. With Carson Wentz, Pederson used his athleticism to move the pocket, and open passing lanes off run action. The Eagles featured one of the most frustrating backfields in the league under Pederson, frequently utilizing as many as three backs in a committee.

James Robinson's status hangs over the team as an essential question. Achilles injuries have served to end running back careers, though the return of Cam Akers creates optimism. Assuming he returns, expect a committee with 2021 pick Travis Etienne. Etienne will gain offseason buzz after injury, but the fantasy frustrations that followed Miles Sanders's usage should throw caution on excitement. D.J. Chark Jr. is the primary looming free agent in a room that should still see use out of Marvin Jones Jr and Laviska Shenault.

Shallow Sleeper - Trevor Lawrence, Quarterback

Lawrence was the most hyped rookie quarterback since Andrew Luck. The turmoil that accompanied Urban Meyer's tenure contributed to a rough rookie season and cast doubt on Lawrence's development as a passer. Pederson's development of Carson Wentz into a third-place MVP finish his rookie year should flush excitement back into Lawrence. The physical tools of the two players are similar, and Lawrence's athleticism should flourish in a system that creates designed quarterback boots off play action.

Deep Dynasty Sleeper - Dan Arnold, Tight End

After arriving in week four, Arnold immediately lay claim to the tight end job. In weeks five through 10, he averaged five rec and 57 yards, good for TE8. A Covid stint and an MCL injury saw a premature end to his season, but the productivity was enough to place him on the fantasy radar. Currently, the Jaguars do not have another player capable of the passing game role Pederson has favored out of the position, placing Arnold as a breakout player and holding a crazy Sleeper ADP of 492.

Potential Free Agent Target - Zach Ertz, Tight End

Ertz and Pederson are an inevitable pairing in rumors, given Jacksonville's need at the position and the relationship between the two. Ertz had a revival in 2021 to finish as the overall TE5 in PPR scoring, splitting time between the Eagles and Cardinals. Besides Arnold, the only tight ends under contract are 2nd-year player Luke Farrell and Chris Manhertz, both players more noted for blocking prowess. Ertz would give the Jaguars an actual second receiving tight end to run 12 personnel and give Lawrence another experienced leader to develop.

NFL Draft Target - Skyy Moore, Wide Receiver, Central Michigan

The lack of a productive slot was a significant hindrance to Lawrence's development. In year two, Shenault finished as PFF's 83rd ranked WR, and he has failed to display the quickness necessary to win consistently out of the slot. Moore was dominant in college, posting a 90-1,255-10 line as the primary target. A high school quarterback and basketball point guard, Moore converted to a receiver in college. While still raw, he has shown a high-level understanding and would emerge as a reliable target in crucial situations for Lawrence.

DENVER BRONCOS - NATHANIEL HACKETT

Offensive Coordinator - Justin Outten (Packers Tight Ends Coach)

Scheme - A run-heavy zone-blocking scheme that relies on 11 and 12 personnel packages. Hackett has relied on power backs and inside zone plays through Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Green Bay stops. The Packers and Broncos both relied heavily on dual backfields. Hackett's experience with quarterbacks has been a mixed bag, with a whose who of disappointment between E.J. Manuel, Kyle Orton, and Blake Bortles before finding himself working with Aaron Rodgers. He has served as the offensive coordinator for the back-to-back NFL MVP for the past two seasons.

Quarterback is the glaring question as the team split between Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock in 2021. They will aggressively look to fill the position and be involved in every rumor between Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson. The wide receiver room is set, with Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton re-signing during the season and providing a deep group with Jerry Jeudy. The tight end room has similar depth, with Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam emerging, and the team will feature the 11 and 12 personnel sets Hackett favors. The remaining question will be the status of Melvin Gordon and if Javonte Williams receives a workhorse share. The decision on that move will see a significant swing to Williams' fantasy value.

Shallow Sleeper - Jerry Jeudy, Wide Receiver

Identifying a qualifier for this category is exceptionally hard. Many leagues value Williams as if Gordon has departed. The crowded wide receiver and tight end rooms could prevent any player from a true breakout. Jeudy was heavily targeted when healthy and playing with Bridgewater, the product of a conservative quarterback and Jeudy's ability to win underneath. The Packers frequently utilized Davante Adams in wide receiver screen situations as an extension of their RPO passing game, and Jeudy is most equipped to step into the type of areas the Packers used Adams. If one player can emerge as a consistent PPR threat, Jeudy is it.

Deep Dynasty Sleeper - Albert Okwuegbunam, Tight End

This pick is a product of two realities. First off, the floor for tight end utility is very achievable. The threshold for TE1stats in points per game was 10.4 in 2021, with Fant finishing TE13 at 9.9. The second, if the team were to make a move for a quarterback, Fant could find himself in the package as a productive, young, former first-round pick. Entering the fourth year of his rookie contract, he is movable and due for an extension. Grabbing Okwuegbunam as an undervalued dynasty player has multiple paths to paying off.

Potential Free Agent Target - Jeff Wilson, Running Back

The Broncos have two backs under contract, Williams and Mike Boone, and look to maintain depth likely via retaining Gordon. Wilson Jr. profiles as a solid complement to Williams's ascension to a lead-back role if he walks. After spending his entire career with Kyle Shanahan, Wilson Jr. has heavy experience in an inside zone scheme. In a late-season stretch to end 2020, Wilson Jr. totaled 437 yards from weeks 11-16 showing his ability to carry the load when needed. He presents a younger, potentially cheaper option than Gordon.

NFL Draft Target - Kenny Pickett, Quarterback, Pittsburgh

If the Broncos cannot acquire a veteran quarterback, they must address the position in the draft. Pickett offers experience and the ability to keep the team on schedule, similar to the consistency Mac Jones brought to the Patriots in 2021. He does not possess the best arm but has the tools to be a long-term upgrade over both Bridgewater and Drew Lock. His athleticism would allow him to function within the boot actions and RPOs necessary in this scheme.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS - JOSH MCDANIEL

Offensive Coordinator - Mick Lombardi (Patriots Wide Receiver Coach)

Scheme - The Patriots under McDaniel's relied on a power run gap-based scheme that attacked the interior of defenses. Once defenses pinched to adjust, they were traditionally able to attack the interior via slot receiver and tight end seam routes. The long history of success with Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, and Rob Gronkowski is the pinnacle of this scheme. It should give Raiders fans hope the Patriots could pivot to Jones, Kendrick Bourne, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Henry working within these concepts and see an offense that placed 6th in points in 2021.

The Raiders are poised to hit the ground running in this scheme. Josh Jacobs graded as a top ten back in PFF's run score despite a third straight year of declining rush yardage, topping out at 872 yards. He balanced it by nearly doubling his career-high in receptions, from 33 to 54. The Raiders were very pass-heavy, placing sixth in attempts, and it is easy to see how Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller cover the slot and tight end roles. Derek Carr rounds out the skill position players who should see most of the usage within this scheme.

Shallow Sleeper - Josh Jacobs, Running Back

Jacobs has quietly emerged as a pass-catching threat, ranking fifth in running back receptions. After finishing eighth overall in total running back points in 2020 and fourteenth in PPR points per game in 2021, Jacobs sits with an early-season Sleeper ADP of RB19. The Patriots have typically worked in committee backfields. Still, the only other backs on the roster are Kenyan Drake off his most inefficient season and Trey Ragas, a rookie who spent the year on the practice squad. If Jacobs can capture the passing role James White used to finish as RB7 in 2018 combined with early-down and goal-line work, Jacobs will push to return first-round fantasy value.

Deep Dynasty Sleeper - Trey Ragas, Running Back

This one is DEEP. A potential earmark exists on most of the Raiders' production. If McDaniels is committed to a backfield by role, the question on the current roster is "Kenyan Drake in the James White role" or "Ragas in the Sony Michel role." Ragas was undrafted in 2021 but worked from the practice squad to the active roster in week 14 after Drake's season-ending injury. The Raiders' bruising physical runner emphasizing a heavy power run game would suit his style. A name that is well under the radar and merely one to watch currently, but the Raiders' actions through both free agency and the draft will go a long way towards tipping the hand on a chance at any utility.

Potential Free Agent Target - Brandin Cooks, Wide Receiver

Cheating on this one. There are a lot of ties between Cooks and a potential move to the Raiders. First off, Josh McDaniels, Raiders GM Dave Ziegler, and Texans' GM Nick Caserio have a long history with the Patriots, opening easy lines of communication. Cooks is a player McDaniels knows from a 2017 season with the Patriots where Cooks was integral in the offense and led the team with 114 targets. The Henry Ruggs situation added tragic drama to the 2021 season, and the Raiders could never replace the deep element he added. The team has hunted complementary receivers to Darren Waller for the past two offseasons; Cooks gives them a versatile receiver who can stretch the field and win in all areas.

NFL Draft Target - Christian Watson, Wide Receiver, North Dakota St

The Raiders must add a vertical element back into their offense. While Watson likely would not be a selection at their first-round pick, the team could target him in round two. A big receiver (measuring 6'4" at the Senior Bowl) with an expectation to threaten a sub 4.4 40 yard dash at the combine, Watson's profile screams Raiders. Depending on the belief in Bryan Edwards and the ability to retain Zay Jones, the team could both add a significant free agent and invest day two draft capital in the position. Watson would compliment Renfrow and multiple free-agent options.

HOUSTON TEXANS - LOVIE SMITH

Offensive Coordinator - Pep Hamilton (Texans Passing Game Coordinator)

Scheme - Hamilton previously coined his offense "The No Coast" offense. While built on base elements of the West Coast offense, Hamilton has emphasized the importance of balance. He believes in establishing a solid run game, utilizing passing timing routes, and attacking vertically. Hamilton has earned a reputation as a quarterback guru through a long career working with players like Andrew Luck and Justin Herbert.

The Texans' offense is in flux. Deshaun Watson is the elephant in the room, and his return to Houston has felt untenable. Davis Mills did just enough to see more in 2021, and the team has young pieces around him. Brandin Cooks has also expressed unhappiness with the situation in Houston.

Shallow Sleeper - Brevin Jordan, Tight End

The path to TE1 qualification is a low bar (10.4 ppg), and the Texans' tight end room is barren. Tight ends historically face a steep curve to meaningful production, and Jordan spent the first seven weeks of the season inactive. Jordan flashed between weeks eight and sixteen when given the opportunity, averaging 7.7 PPR points with three touchdowns. Hamilton heavily involved Coby Fleener in his stint as Colts' OC as the second leading receiver between 2013 and 2014 on the team. Jordan can emerge as a consistent fantasy producer in an offense hitting the reset button.

Deep Dynasty Sleeper - Nico Collins, Wide Receiver

In week 14, the Texans handed the reigns to the rookies. Mills became the starting quarterback, and Collins carved out a meaningful role in the offense seeing six targets and 43 yards per game. Collins remains a deep league target due to Cooks' presence, but a trade would immediately create a spike within the market. Collins lands in a delicate place; the team could retain Cooks and add competition in the draft, which impedes getting him on the field. But the team could also give him an actual shot at serving as a number one wide receiver.

Potential Free Agent Target - Jalen Guyton, Wide Receiver

Not a buzzy name, but there are multiple throughlines with Guyton, Hamilton, and the Texans. Guyton served as the Chargers' third wide receiver when Hamilton was the Chargers quarterbacks coach, playing the most snaps (919) of any receiver. Guyton is from Allen, Texas, and starred at North Texas before heading to the NFL. He gives the Texans a productive player familiar with Hamilton who should come at a price that fits a team in a rebuild.

NFL Draft Target - Dameon Pearce, Running Back, Florida

Rex Burkhead, Scottie Phillips, and Darius Anderson are the only backs under contract. Burkhead emerged as one of the most surprising storylines in 2021 and contributed to swinging playoff matchups with the 20th highest fantasy running back game of the year in week 15. He is a bruising back and an excellent run blocker, giving him a path to a three-down role and cementing him as a great fantasy sleeper for 2022. The team needs an early-down back that can grow with their young core, and Pearce likely lands around the Texans' pick in round three.