Free Agency Impact on Dynasty Values

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It has been mentioned in past dynasty trade value articles that one of the factors taken into account when formulating the values is the ADP of recent MFL10s. MFL10 ADP is an especially important piece of information at this time of the year because things can move fast in the offseason and most of us aren't constantly plugged in and re-assessing the impact of each piece of news on every player's value. But a good percentage of the fantasy footballers that are participating in MFL10s early in the offseason are hardcore and sharp at what they do. Many are constantly tweaking their 2016 projections, taking into account the full range of outcomes prior to, during and after free agency and the draft. 

With a few days prior to the opening of free agency, there is still time to try to grab a player with free agency upside at a value. For example, if you can get Charles Sims or Marvin Jones at a low cost prior to the open of free agency, both make for nice trade targets. There are also likely to be some narrow windows with sell-high opportunities during free agency when the hype goes too far on players who see their situation improve.

Players Who Could be Most Impacted by Free Agency 

1. Charles Sims- Sims has a chance to see his dynasty value increase significantly if the Buccaneers are unable to sign Doug Martin in free agency (and don't replace him with an equally talented player). Sims rushed for an impressive 4.9 yards per carry last season and put up an especially impressive 11.0 yards per reception on his 51 catches out of the backfield. There are three scenarios that we could see play out in Tampa at running back:

A. Doug Martin signs an extension in Tampa (or another top back like Matt Forte or Lamar Miller is signed). Sims will remain a flex option with relatively minimal week-to-week value for the next couple seasons at least. He averaged 11.4 PPG in his part-time role last season, which is right around "replacement-level" production in a 12-team league.

B. Tampa signs a mid-tier back (like Chris Ivory or Ronnie Hillman) or drafts a back in the first few rounds. In this scenario, there's a great chance that we see Sims go from 35% of the running back to touches to 40-50% of the touches and become a solid fantasy RB2 due to his heavy pass-game usage. Even with Sims getting the majority of the pass-game work, he would not be a fantasy RB1 with most of the goalline work going to the other back.

C. Tampa does little to add serious competition for the lead role and Sims steps up as a 250+ touch workhorse. This is obviously the most exciting possibility for dynasty owners. While it's a bit of a longshot, there is a chance that the Buccaneers give Sims a shot as the lead runner. Sims could be a fantasy star in that role with 75+ receptions and 1,000+ rushing yards both realistic projections.

Sims is up to RB29 in MFL10 drafts and has been rising quickly, so there seems to be some optimism that one of the two more ideal scenarios plays out. A recent statement from Buccaneers GM Jason Licht can be read as indicating that the first two scenarios are most likely, but still leaves open the possibility of Sims as the workhorse back: "We really like Charles Sims. We love him in his role," Licht said. "We think he can carry the ball. We think he’s very valuable in the passing game, more so, but we think he can carry the ball. You just never know on players until they are thrust into a certain role and he’s never been thrust into a role where he’s a workhorse, so you never know, but we like everything about him." 

2. Marvin Jones- The ideal scenario for Jones' dynasty owners is that he leaves Cincinnati for a team that will make him their first or second target in a high-volume passing offense. The soon-to-be 26-year old has played extremely well for the Bengals but remains behind A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert in the pecking order for red zone targets. He has been a better NFL player than fantasy player and those are the guys with real fantasy upside when they hit the free agent market. Bengals.com writer Geoff Hobson says the Bengals are set to make "Herculean efforts" to keep Jones in Cincinnati, but as the top receiver on the market (after Alshon Jeffery was tagged), Jones could get a big offer that the Bengals are unwilling to match. New England, Minnesota and St. Louis are intriguing landing spots where Jones would step in as the top outside receiver. Anyone willing to pay $7M+ per season for Jones will have a big role in mind for him. 

3. C.J. Anderson- Anderson is a restricted free agent and almost guaranteed to remain in Denver. But the remainder of the Denver backfield is completely up in the air. Will the Broncos retain free agent Ronnie Hillman to reprise his role as 1B to Anderson's 1A? Will Denver pursue a free agent back such as Kubiak-favorite Arian Foster? The Broncos are going to be a run-heavy team in 2016 and are likely to put up big numbers overall. The question for Anderson will be how large his piece of that pie is and the next week will go a long ways towards giving us that answer. Anderson has fantasy RB1 upside if given 60% or more of the touches in Denver's backfield.

4. Jay Ajayi- Reports out of Miami have the Dolphins offering a contract in the $5M per season range to free agent running back Lamar Miller. The most likely scenario is that the two parties are able to bridge what appears to be a relatively small gap and that Miller will remain in Miami long-term. For Ajayi, that would be a real blow to his dynasty value because he is under contract for three more seasons in Miami. The Dolphins are pretty tight up against the cap after deciding to use their transition tag on Olivier Vernon however, so it is possible that Miller will find more money on the open market. If so, Ajayi could be the primary beneficiary as he should receive the first crack at the starting job should Miller exit.

5. Doug Martin- Martin is coming off of an exceptional 2015 season in which put up 1,673 yards from scrimmage. He should be the most coveted back on the market and some team is going to have to make him a financial priority to obtain his services. From that perspective, it's relatively safe to assume he is giong to end up the lead back somewhere. However, there's a big difference between stepping into the lead role behind Dallas's road-grading offensive line and ending up on a poor team hoping to rebuild their running game. Thus, Martin's eventual landing spot will have a major impact on his short-term projections; at 27-years old, the short-term projections constitute nearly all of Martin's dynasty value.

6. Lamar Miller- If Martin isn't the top back on the market, there's a good case to be made for Lamar Miller. Miller does not turn 25-years old until later this spring and has his best football ahead of him. With an asking price in the $5-6M per year range, Miller is going to be viewed as the lead back by any team willing to pay up for his services. Thus, there's no real downside threat to his value in free agency. However, there is a bit of upside built in if he does the unexpected and leaves Miami (and the Dolphins' mediocre offensive line) for a better situation. Dallas stands out as the top destination for any free agent back and Miller could put up huge numbers there. 

7. Matt Jones- If Alfred Morris leaves in free agency as expected, only Jones, Chris Thompson and Silas Redd will be under contract in Washington. Unless Washington goes out and signs a free agent back (or drafts one early), the starting job is there for the taking for the second-year back. The assumption has been all along that Jones would get his shot in 2016 and that assumption is already priced into his dynasty value for the most part. But he will get at least a small bump if Alfred Morris signs elsewhere and no free agents are added to take his place.

8. Mohamed Sanu- While Sanu is not a dynamic player, he has proven effective in the slot and has put up fantasy-relevant numbers over shorter stretches when getting consistent targets. He is a bit of a forgotten man after falling to fifth in the passing-game pecking order for the Bengals, but should find a role as one of the top three passing options for some team in free agency. His best case is landing on a high-volume passing attack as the big slot receiver. New Orleans could use a big slot guy to replace Marques Colston. 

9. Jermaine Kearse- In a weak wide receiver class, Kearse stands out as one of the few potential difference-makers available for a team desperate for help at the wide receiver position. He notched 685 yards on just 68 targets in 2015 and also has found major success in his playoff career. Kearse could approach 1,000 receiving yards if he finds a WR-needy team that can give him 100+ targets. 

10. Alfred Morris- When Mike Shanahan and his zone-blocking scheme left Washington, Morris became a fish out of water in Jay Gruden's  West Coast offense. Fit will be key for Morris because he is not the type of dynamic athlete at the position who can excel in all offenses. Houston and Denver would both be intriguing landing spots for Morris. 

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