Sunday Showdown Week 8

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Chicago Bears are heading to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers as 8.5-point underdogs with a 46.5-point total. They will be without Justin Fields once again as he works through a thumb injury. Tyson Bagent will draw another start after completing 21 of 29 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown last week. While an 8.5-point road team is not who we'd typically build our Showdown lineups around, DraftKings is forcing the fields' hand by pricing their top-3 options above $11,000. Most of Los Angeles' production runs through Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler, but the trio are difficult to stack together given their salaries. On the flip side, Chicago has value across the board, with their most expensive option being DJ Moore at $9,200. Even with the price disparity between the two squads, it is incredibly difficult for a team to lose by over a touchdown and still find four players in the winning lineup. The challenge will be fitting enough Chargers while submitting a lineup that projects reasonably well.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Justin Fields - Thumb - Out

Joshua Palmer - Knee - Questionable

Gerald Everett - Hip - Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Austin Ekeler
2. Keenan Allen
3. DJ Moore
4. Justin Herbert

BEARS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Tyson Bagent $9,000 - Flex

Bagent performed admirably in his first full start after struggling with relief duties the week prior. His salary seems high for an undrafted rookie out of a Division ll school, but he played a clean game in Week 7 and added some rushing upside. His inclusion in most lineups has more to do with the price of the Chargers' top options, and less to do with his median projection.

RUNNING BACK

D'Onta Foreman $8,000 - Flex

After Foreman's amazing Week 7 performance, he's being projected to take a back seat to rookie Roschon Johnson, who happens to be $1,400 cheaper. Foreman will still split carries, but at his price, there isn't much incentive to play him over cheaper options like Joshua Palmer.

Roschon Johnson $6,600 - Flex

After a two-game absence, Johnson is returning to the lineup for his first full start. He performed well in the season opener but has had trouble replicating that success. He is difficult to project, as he has not led his backfield at any point, but expect him to handle over 40% of the rushing share and a few targets.

RECEIVER

DJ Moore $9,200 - Captain or Flex

Moore's 26.8% target share is one of the healthiest in the league. He didn't miss a beat with Bagent at the helm, as he earned nine targets. In Week 6 when Fields left the game early, Moore still earned 8 targets. He's a lock to lead his team in targets and will benefit from a negative game script from the start assuming Vegas has this spread right.

Cole Kmet $5,600 - Flex

Kmet was having a resurgent season until he fell into a funk the past couple of games. He appears to be affected the most by Fields' absence, as he's managed just two catches over the last two weeks. He's still playing the majority of the snaps and participating in most of the routes, so his price keeps him viable. Gerald Everett does project essentially the same for $600 less and adds exposure to the Chargers.

Darnell Mooney $4,000 - Flex

Mooney has had a rough start to the season, but his price has fallen enough to make him viable. He's earned 8 targets over the last two weeks while averaging over 70% of the snaps. The salary relief he provides is a big reason why the Bears offense will be stacked heavily.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Tyler Scott $1,200 - Flex

Scott has been targeted 7 times over the last two weeks and has played nearly 60% of the snaps. He also handled two rushing attempts. Bagent has seemed to favor his wide receivers, which makes the WR3 more viable than when Fields' was active. Scott is as strong a play as there will ever be at around $1,000.

Darrynton Evans $2,000 - Flex

Evans will factor into the backfield and handle a few touches but given how strong a play Scott is, Evans is not necessary for anything other than large fields.

CHARGERS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Justin Herbert $12,000 - Captain or Flex

Herbert is averaging just 17 completions over the last 3 games. Most of which are going to either Austin Ekeler or Keenan Allen. Since they are all priced over $11,000, it becomes difficult to encapsulate the Chargers' offensive production. This will lead to a lower roster percentage for Herbert, as the field will feel more comfortable with either Ekeler or Allen alone. One strategy to employ in tournaments is to stack Herbert with some of his ancillary pieces that offer strong value.

RUNNING BACK

Austin Ekeler $11,200 - Captain or Flex

Ekeler has handled exactly 14 carries in each game since his return. He's produced next to nothing as a rusher, and his pass-game involvement has struggled as well. He's still averaging roughly 65% of the snaps. Historically, the decision has been to either play Ekeler or to pair Herbert with Allen. In this case, with the Herbert stack being so expensive, it makes sense to go back to Ekeler in hopes that he returns to form.

RECEIVER

Keenan Allen $11,800 - Captain or Flex

Allen has found the fountain of youth yet again. At 31 years old, his 31% target share ranks 9th in the league. Over the last 2 weeks, he's been targeted 20 times. He and Herbert eat up much of a lineup's total salary. One way to work around that would be to pair Allen at Captain with Hebert in the flex, then play four Bears for the value.

Joshua Palmer $7,000 - Flex

Palmer was unlikely to play on their last Showdown slate and ended up going. Now, weeks later, it is unlikely he will sit. Allen demands most of Herbert's attention, but Palmer has still thrived as the second receiving option. He's been targeted 14 times over the past two games and hit the 100-yard-bonus last week. It is important to note that it would be difficult for both Palmer and Ekeler to have heavy involvement in the receiving game, so they don't exactly correlate well.

Gerald Everett $5,000 - Flex

Everett doesn't typically earn many high-value targets, but he gets enough work to make him viable on a PPR site like DraftKings. His only two touchdowns have come over the last two weeks where he's been targeted nine times. His recent involvement is another example of how players can thrive when Ekeler is not being featured as a receiver.

Quentin Johnston $4,800 - Flex

Johnston has yet to flash the ability that made him a first-round selection. He's never caught more than two passes and has failed to produce more than 20 yards. There are too many options in Johnston's price range to warrant considering him as anything other than a unique leverage play.

Donald Parham Jr $4,200 - Flex

Parham Jr. has fallen into the same category as Noah Gray of favorite punt plays that have recently ascended out of consideration. His six targets over the last two games were promising if he were priced normally, but at $4,200 there are far better options. DraftKings has likely priced him up to combat Everett's regular questionable tag.