Sunday Showdown Week 7

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Miami Dolphins are heading to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles as 3-point underdogs. The total is set at 51.5. The Dolphins are number one in total yards, while the Eagles are second. While their ranking may seem to make for a coin flip, Miami is leading by an incredible 103 yards per game. Both teams are recognized for their productive offenses, indicated by the high total, but they have stout defenses. Both teams rank in the top five in sacks on the season. With so many great options, this slate will be decided predominantly by pricing and the spread. The Eagles get the slight nod in terms of roster construction, given they are three-point home favorites and that most of the viable salary relief is on the Dolphins' side of the ball.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Jeff Wilson Jr. - Finger - Active

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Jalen Hurts
2. A.J. Brown
3. Tyreek Hill
4. D'Andre Swift

DOLPHINS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Tua Tagovailoa $10,600 - Flex

Tagovailoa is a threat to hit the 300-yard-bonus in every game. He's done so three times this season while coming close in a fourth outing. He's also thrown multiple touchdowns in four of six games. He falls out of Captain consideration simply because all of the viable options are expensive on this slate, and the salary will be used to build around Eagles victories. It doesn't help Tagovailoa's case that his receivers are priced well ahead of their Eagles counterparts.

RUNNING BACK

Raheem Mostert $9,800 - Flex

Mostert would make for a great Captain as leverage against the Dolphins' passing game, except he's too expensive compared to some of the Eagles we're looking to pair with Hurts. He's currently leading the league in both touchdowns and yards per carry. Even at cost, he's an excellent Flex option, especially in lineups that don't include Tagovailoa.

RECEIVER

Tyreek Hill $12,000 - Captain or Flex

Hill will be rostered somewhere north of 90%, and he's earned it. He's only had one game this season where he did not either hit the 100-yard bonus or score. The best way to combat Hill's roster share is to play him at Captain, but that requires including Tagovailoa in the flex, which will eat a ton of salary and make stacking the Eagles more difficult. The best method for building on this slate is to find the Captain who could outscore Hill, then play him in the flex and accept the chalk.

Jaylen Waddle $8,600 - Flex

Waddle's ceiling makes him worth consideration, but his 21% target share on just 70% of the snaps makes him difficult to roster over someone like DeVonta Smith, who stacks well with Hurts.

Braxton Berrios $2,600 - Flex

Berrios is playing roughly 40% of the snaps and is being targeted roughly 10% of the time. He caught 6 passes for 43 yards and a touchdown in Week 4 but has been targeted just 4 times since. He's worth playing as salary relief in large field tournaments, but Jeff Wilson Jr. is a far better punt in smaller fields.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Jeff Wilson Jr. $200 - Flex

Wilson's price lands him in this category, but he will not be under the radar. If healthy, as he is expected to be, he will be carrying De'Von Achane's workload, but at a minimum salary.

EAGLES OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Jalen Hurts $11,400 - Captain or Flex

Hurts' price muddies the water as he is significantly more expensive than Tagovailoa, but his stacking options are much cheaper than their Dolphins counterparts. In perhaps his worst performance as a starter, he still managed to produce 327 total yards and two total touchdowns. His floor is rock solid, while his ceiling rivals Hill's at $600 less. Expect Hurts to bounce back in a big way.

RUNNING BACK

D'Andre Swift $8,000 - Captain or Flex

Swift is far too cheap, given his workload, and he's a major reason we're stacking the Eagles over the Dolphins. His last two target totals were 10 and 6. When he struggled last week against an impressive Jets front, he simply became a receiver. With Gainwell returning, his snap share only dipped slightly, and his usage was about the same. He makes for helpful salary relief at Captain to help fit both Hurts and Hill in the flex.

RECEIVER

A.J. Brown $10,000 - Captain or Flex

Swift's salary is helpful for Eagles stacks, but Brown is the best value on the slate. He ranks fourth in the league in targets, ahead of Hill, and the two are tied in receptions. Brown happens to be $2,000 cheaper. The pairing of Hurts and Brown comes out to be $21,400, while the pairing of Tagovailoa and Hill costs $12,600. The Eagles stack projects slightly better as well.

DeVonta Smith $7,400 - Flex

Smith was one catch away from being a hero for the Eagles but ultimately left the game with two costly drops in Week 6. His price took a hit due to the uncharacteristic mistakes, which now helps his cause for finding his way into Eagles stacks. His target share is higher than Waddle's, and he's playing significantly more snaps. He has the bonus of being priced $1,200 less than the Dolphins' WR2.

Dallas Goedert $6,200 - Flex

Goedert's snap share was about 20% lower than his previous average last week, but he was still plenty involved. Over the last two games, he's earned 17 targets. In Week 5 he came away with over 100 yards and a touchdown. His price paired with Hurts, Swift, and Brown forces some unique Dolphins pairings, which bodes well for large field tournaments.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Olamide Zaccheaus $1,400 - Flex

The Eagles recently added future Hall of Famer Julio Jones to help fill in for an injured Quez Watkins and provide a much-needed spark at WR3. For now, it's still Zaccheaus' gig. Last week, he played 81% of the snaps but was targeted twice. Wilson Jr. is far and away the best punt option, but Zaccheaus may be considered in large field Hurts stacks.