Football fans drew a line in the sand after last year; most are already in or out on Justin Fields. A league-worst record and glaring deficiencies as a passer overshadowed a sophomore campaign littered with elite displays of athleticism. But the Chicago Bears made a solid effort to surround Fields with a better supporting cast this offseason, inspiring hope for another step forward in his development.
His offensive line wasn’t quite as bad as people think, but that didn’t stop the team from addressing those needs in the Draft and free agency. Darnell Wright, arguably the best lineman in the Draft, was added to beef up their front with the tenth overall pick in the NFL Draft. The offensive line has been a scapegoat for the team's struggles. They can assume minimal blame for last year’s struggles. But Fields threw to the worst group of pass-catchers in the league last year, and playing catchup from a horrendous defense stretched him to his limits. Those were the real issues.
A History-Making 2022
The 2022 season was the first time in franchise history that the Bears went into Week 1 with a new general manager, head coach, and Week 1 quarterback.
The disastrous Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace era left a mess for the new front office. Last year, 44.4% of the Bears’ cap space was dead, meaning it was tied up in players no longer on the team. For example, Andy Dalton and Nick Foles, neither of who were on the roster, were paid $7.7M and $5M, respectively. For comparison, Justin Fields was paid $4.6M. Part of the Khalil Mack trade involved the Bears eating the entirety of his $24M salary. Jimmy Graham, Eddie Goldman, and Tarik Cohen were just a few other players who were top-10 in 2022 salary and not on the team.
To put it simply, the Bears payroll was a disaster. Their only choice was to patch together a cheap group of veteran wide receivers. Byron Pringle was their marquee free-agent signing. He was paid $4.3M for 11 games and 16 targets. N’Keal Harry was their next highest-paid receiver at $1.9M. He had nine targets in seven games. No other receiver on the Bears payroll made more than $1M last year. With so many holes on the roster, the team could only allocate 4.5% of their cap to the wide receiver position. And it showed on the field.
In addition to a lack of weapons, the Bears' defense did Fields no favors. The coaching staff’s philosophy was to grind the clock and slow the bleeding. Their 58.4 offensive plays per game tied for the second-slowest pace in the league. Still, their defense managed to allow the most points in the league.
A Bad Place to be a Young QB
A brutally slow offense with no weapons - mirrored by a sieve of a defense - doesn’t make for the best developmental system for a young quarterback.
I wrote an article in March about Justin Fields and will copy a section from it. A string of brutal losses hit the Bears midseason, and Fields can’t be blamed for any of them.
On the road against Minnesota, Fields came into the game with a chance to lead a game-winning drive. He threw a perfect pass to Imhir Smith-Marsette. A defender stood up Smith-Marsette before yoinking the ball from his grasp. Fumble. Bears lose.
On a Thursday Night game against the Commanders, Fields led a beautiful drive to put them at the goal line. On fourth down, Darnell Mooney got off the line and darted to the sideline. As Fields uncorked the throw to an open Mooney, he inexplicably came back to the ball and was tackled short of a goal line. Bears lose.
Late in the third quarter against Dallas, the Bears found themselves in a close game. Fields hit David Montgomery wide open on a check-down. Montgomery was lit up on the play, Micah Parsons scooped it up and scored, and the Bears fell behind. Bears lose.
On fourth down, late in a close game against Miami, Fields rolled out of the pocket and threw a perfect pass to Equanimeous St. Brown for the first down. Dropped. Bears lose.
Against Detroit, Justin Fields ripped off a spectacular 67-yard rushing touchdown with 9:11 left in the game to put them up six points. Cairo Santos missed the extra point. The Lions drove the field on the next drive, capped it off with a Jamaal Williams touchdown, and made the extra point. Bears lose.
On the road in Atlanta, Justin Fields tied up the game with a long drive in the fourth quarter. Atlanta chipped away at the Bears' defense on the next drive before winning the game on a 53-yard field goal. Bears lose.
Outside of a lone win against New England in Week 7, the Bears had a string of unbelievably tough losses leading up to Fields’ injury, none of which you can place blame on Fields.
Despite the roster's apparent rebuilding state, Justin Fields absorbed the onus for the team’s woes. Eye-popping highlights are ignored because of a three-win outcome.
Narratives aside, what does all this mean for his fantasy value?
Well, Fields had no meaningful chance to succeed as a rookie. He took his camp reps with the second team and was unprepared for the bright lights when a Week 2 injury to Andy Dalton thrust him into the starting lineup. A reset in Year 2 included a decrepit roster and watered-down offensive scheme under a new staff. But the offseason leading up to the 2023 kickoff indicates a willingness to see what Fields can do with a sound supporting cast.
The Bears landed the No. 1 overall pick and used it to trade back for a slew of picks and, most importantly, DJ Moore. Moore didn’t put up the gaudiest numbers in Carolina. But he’s still just 26 years old and has showcased promising peripheral statistics. With good quarterback play and an uptick in pace, he has the tools to be a premier wide receiver. While Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool probably aren’t cut out to be WR1s, they make for strong secondary options behind Moore. Cole Kmet led the team in targets last year and will likely slot in as the fourth option in the passing game. What was inarguably the worst pass-catching room in the NFL last year has shaped up to be a formidable bunch.
Our Jeff Bell wrote a great article detailing how the Bears are following similar paths laid out by other teams to develop Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Dak Prescott. Gifting a young quarterback an alpha wide receiver is one way to fast-track their evolution.
In addition to the wide receivers, a rotation of Khalil Herbert, D’Onta Foreman, and rookie Roschon Johnson stands as one of the hardest-hitting corps in the league. Projecting how touches will be split among the group may be tricky. But the Bears found a type of back they like that won’t hesitate to run through a defender’s face. While not the most exciting for fantasy, these backs are ensured to strike fear in opposing defenses and lessen the load for Fields.
Fields’ fantasy output last year came primarily from his legs. As a matter of fact, 52.9% of his fantasy production was due to his rushing, the highest rate of any quarterback in the league. While pundits use his rushing output to tout Fields as a safe fantasy pick, the reality is that he likely falls short of the 1,143 rushing yards he posted in 2022. It's tough to draw historical comps to Fields' rushing (1,563 yards through the first two years) because only Lamar Jackson clears that bar. But eight other quarterbacks in NFL history have rushed for over 1,000 yards in their first two years. All eight saw a decrease in rushing output from Year 2 to Year 3. As quarterbacks develop, it’s imperative that they do it as passers.
Can he develop as a passer?
And that is the question everyone has about Justin Fields. Well, he may have already done so.
As mentioned, his rookie season was marred by poor decision-making to keep him from taking first-team reps. And in Year 2, the Bears passed the ball at a historically low rate. Fields only eclipsed 25 pass attempts in two outings. But we saw an uptick in efficiency as the season progressed.
| Statistic | Ohio State (2019-2020) | Rookie Year (2021) | Weeks 1-6 (2022) | Weeks 7-18 (2022) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completion Percentage | 68.4% | 58.9% | 54.8% | 63.6% |
| Touchdowns Per Game | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Interceptions Per Game | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| NFL Passer Rating | 121.8 | 73.2 | 73.7 | 92.3 |
Sure, the Week 6 cutoff may look like an arbitrary split. Not only was Week 7 the first game where Fields looked up to speed in the new offense, but his ten starts as a rookie plus his first six starts in Year 2 marked his first “full season” in the NFL. Week 7 and beyond was what he looked like after a 16-game sample. Completion percentage, touchdown rate, and passer rating went up. Interceptions went down. That’s what we want to see from a young and developing quarterback. And while a top prospect can typically never recreate his college-level efficiency, Fields' recent sample is closer to what we saw during his prolific college career.
So when looking at Fields’ outlook for 2023, there are some auspicious signs. The team has invested heavily in the offense around him. He showed signs of increased efficiency after learning Matt Eberflus’s new offense. And while that should help him take a step forward, if he doesn’t, he’s got an elite skill set as a rusher to fall back on.
From Week 7 onward, Justin Fields was the QB3 in per-game fantasy output, trailing only Patrick Mahomes II and Jalen Hurts. He did that on a barren roster. The ceiling with a better offensive line and a bonafide WR1 is undeniable. Fields’ range of outcomes has “fantasy football’s #1 scorer” in it this year.
There are a few ways this season can shake out:
- Justin Fields increases efficiency as a passer
- Justin Fields maintains efficiency as a passer
- Justin Fields regresses efficiency as a passer
Option #1 would provide us with a breakout akin to 2022 Jalen Hurts or 2020 Josh Allen after the additions of A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs. Due to an improved offensive ecosystem, Option #2 would still be better than last year. Preferable receivers should get open more frequently and make plays after the catch. And while Option #3 is the most unlikely, it’s worth noting as a possibility. But even if Fields does regress, he displayed an elite rushing upside last year that will still push him to a QB1 finish in fantasy football. It’s hard to see last year as anything but his fantasy floor.
Overall, Justin Fields possesses an extremely high floor and ceiling for the 2023 season. If things don't work out, the Bears have the draft capital to move up for a quarterback in 2024. But with PJ Walker and Nathan Peterman being the only other quarterbacks on the current depth chart, the Bears plan to roll with Fields through the season’s entirety, for better or worse. In dynasty leagues, there are reasonable concerns about Fields’ long-term outlook. But for 2023, draft Justin Fields after your leaguemates select Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes II, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow. You’ll get similar production from your quarterback at a much lower cost.
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