On night one of the 2022 NFL draft, Jon Robinson decided to alter the trajectory of the Philadelphia Eagles franchise. The problem? Robinson was the general manager of the Tennessee Titans. Was the operative word. Robinson traded wide receiver A.J. Brown to the Eagles, a player that ignited dramatic improvement in Jalen Hurts and led to a Super Bowl run. It also led to Robinson’s dismissal.
The Eagles followed a model becoming popular around the league. The Cowboys paired Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper. The Cardinals traded for DeAndre Hopkins to support Kyler Murray. The Bills connected Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. The Dolphins adding Tyreek Hill to Tua Tagovailoa. The Jaguars acquired Calvin Ridley for Trevor Lawrence.
Dramatic improvement has followed every situation. They combine for a proven path to success.
Following the trade for D.J. Moore, Justin Fields is next to follow this ascension.
Before The Arrival
These young quarterbacks are a wide swath of talent. Murray and Lawrence were top overall picks in their draft, while Prescott swung down to a fourth-round selection. Murray and Hopkins were paired early, following Murray’s rookie season, giving a small picture of life before. But Prescott, Allen, Hurts, and Tagovailoa all added impact receivers after their second season.
All struggled to varying degrees, particularly in their second season:
| Quarterback | Cmp% | TD | TD% | Int | Int% | Y/A | AY/A | Y/C | Y/G | Rate | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 67.8 | 16 | 4.1 | 10 | 2.6 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 10.1 | 204.1 | 90.1 | 49.7 |
| Jalen Hurts | 61.3 | 16 | 3.7 | 9 | 2.1 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 11.9 | 209.6 | 87.2 | 48.5 |
| Josh Allen | 58.8 | 20 | 4.3 | 9 | 2 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 193.1 | 85.3 | 49.4 |
| Dak Prescott | 62.9 | 22 | 4.5 | 13 | 2.7 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 207.8 | 86.6 | 69.9 |
The picture is clear. Players struggled with completion percentage. They relied on athleticism. Posted passer ratings under the league average. In short, a player the football hive mind would label as “can’t pass.” In short, the consensus opinion of Justin Fields.
But comparing the average to Fields’ second season creates a picture.
| Category | Cmp% | TD% | Int% | Y/A | AY/A | Y/C | Y/G | Rate | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Average | 62.5 | 4.18% | 2.32% | 6.89 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 204 | 87.3 | 54.4 |
| Justin Fields | 60.4 | 5.30% | 3.50% | 7.10 | 6.6 | 11.7 | 149.5 | 85.2 | 54.0 |
Simply put, Fields is right in line with these quarterbacks at a similar point in his career.
Context on Fields 2022 Season
Footballguys’ Dave Kluge did a masterful job laying out Fields’ struggles in the 2022 season. Suffice it to say, with everything around Fields (or the lack thereof); he should be applauded for his performance.
But the knee-jerk echo chamber of football conversation does not work that way.
Not a soul would have argued Fields was set up in 2022 to succeed in any measurable way. All Fields did was threaten Lamar Jackson’s single-season quarterback rushing record of 1,206 yards with 1,143 of his own.
Justin Fields can do things on an NFL field few players have proven capable of accomplishing in NFL history.
Improvement With New WR1s
Earlier, dramatic improvement was mentioned, but the stats tell the story.
| Quarterback | Cmp% | TD | TD% | Int | Int% | Y/A | AY/A | Y/C | Y/G | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 66.5 | 22 | 4.8 | 6 | 1.3 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 12 | 246.7 | 101.5 |
| Josh Allen | 69.2 | 37 | 6.5 | 10 | 1.7 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 12 | 284.0 | 107.2 |
| Dak Prescott | 67.7 | 22 | 4.2 | 8 | 1.5 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 11 | 242.8 | 96.9 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 64.8 | 25 | 6.3 | 8 | 2.0 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 14 | 272.9 | 105.5 |
Every player improved in their third season. The addition of new primary receivers helped. As did the natural progression of development.
Looking year over year.
| Category | Cmp% | TD% | Int% | Y/A | AY/A | Y/C | Y/G | Rate | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Average Year 2 | 62.5 | 4.18% | 2.32% | 6.9 | 6.70 | 11 | 204.0 | 87.3 | 54.4 |
| Composite Average Year 3 | 67.3 | 5.41% | 1.63% | 8.0 | 8.35 | 12 | 261.3 | 102.8 | 66.7 |
| Difference | 4.76 | 1.23% | -0.69% | 1.1 | 1.65 | 1 | 57.3 | 15.5 | 12.3 |
The player developed from below-average statistical passers into players threatening to win MVP awards.
Justin Fields entered the league with just a season and a half of college starting experience. To simply box score watch and write him off as a finished product is foolish. Quarterbacks take time, and Fields has survived a season surrounded by the least talent of his career. The arrival of D.J. Moore shows the Bears’ commitment to supporting his development. The Bears lead the NFL in salary cap space, and the Panthers’ trade loads their war chest with five selections in the top 75 picks. Fields ascension would be another case of history repeating.