Week 18, 4th and 12 with 1:26 on the clock. Houston is down seven points to the Colts, their divisional rivals. Anything short of a 12-yard gain here locks Houston into the No. 1 pick of the 2023 Draft. Davis Mills throws a 30-yard dart down the sidelines to Brandin Cooks to keep them alive. After two incompletions and a third-down sack, Houston finds themselves 4th and 20 with 0:58 remaining. Mills scrambles out of the pocket before heaving a pass off his back foot from the opposing 43-yard line. “AND IT IS CAUGHT! IMPROBABLE! AKINS!” screams Spero Dedes as Jordan Akins comes down with a touchdown catch. Houston is still down one point. Knowing he’s about to get fired, Lovie Smith calls for a two-point conversion to Akins. He secures the catch in the end zone. Houston wins the games, and Chicago is officially on the clock with the first pick.
Bears fans couldn’t finish wiping the tears of laughter from their eyes before articles started popping up: “Should the Bears trade Justin Fields and draft a quarterback with the No. 1 pick?”
As part of the NFL media machine, I realize that content can sometimes be tough to drum up. At first, I saw these articles as fun thought exercises. We know that building around a talented rookie quarterback gives a team the best chance of winning a Super Bowl. We know that Justin Fields has some glaring weaknesses as a passer. We know he struggles with sacks and fumbles. But surely, people didn’t actually think the Bears were going to trade Justin Fields, right? With an awful supporting cast on offense and the league's worst defense, Fields single-handedly kept this team afloat seemingly every week. Fast forward a month, and these articles are still popping up daily.
The Chicago Bears: A downtrodden fanbase
As I’m sure you’re aware, there hasn’t been much to excite Bears fans in recent years. Recent decades, really.
Bears fans had 2018. A baby-faced Mitch Trubisky made the Pro Bowl as "offensive guru,” Matt Nagy won Coach of the Year in his first year with the team. Nagy and Trubisky were quickly exposed in the following seasons. In the 2010s, Jay Cutler’s offense showed promise. But a peaking Aaron Rodgers made the NFC North a brutal division to take down. The 2000s were anchored by a smash-mouth defense and electric special teams, but the team suffered heartbreak yearly in the postseason. Jim Harbaugh, Erik Kramer, Cade McNown, Jim Miller, Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman, Cutler, and Trubisky filled the void under center since the Bears' last Super Bowl win.
And then, in the 2021 Draft, something crazy and unexpected happened. Justin Fields, touted by many draft analysts as the QB2 behind Trevor Lawrence, started to slide. Zach Wilson at No. 2. Trey Lance at No. 3. After a string of teams without quarterback concerns made their selections, the Bears traded up to No. 11 and drafted Justin Fields. Bears fans had been burdened with years of the "I can't believe they passed on Patrick Mahomes II and Deshaun Watson for Trubisky" narrative. But the Bears righted their wrong and drafted a quarterback who fits the mold for the new NFL. An exceptional athlete with a Howitzer for an arm, blazing 4.4 speed, and the size and strength to punish defenders. The type of guy who could single-handedly win football games and had proven so in college.
Thrown into the fire Year 1
Justin Fields’ rookie season was a weird one. There were a lot of concerns about his readiness for an NFL field. The Bears had Andy Dalton on a one-year/$10M deal. Matt Nagy kept Justin Fields on a short leash in the offseason, having him spend time with the second team while Dalton got the first-team reps. Following Andy Reid's path with Patrick Mahomes II and Alex Smith, most Bears fans had accepted that their shiny new toy might not see the field as a rookie. But then a Week 2 ankle injury to Dalton unexpectedly pushed Fields into a game. It was evident that Fields was not ready. Over his next six games, he averaged 0.3 touchdowns and 1.0 interceptions per game. He completed just 56.6% of his passes and averaged a paltry 134 passing yards. The decision to limit his reps in the offseason proved a colossal mistake, and pundits worried that this stretch of poor play would hamper his development.
Dalton got healthy. Fields got injured. And the two quarterbacks were yo-yoed on and off the bench before a 6-11 finish ended the Matt Nagy era. But in Fields’ final four starts, some promise was shown. Fields bumped his passing completion to 62.5%. His touchdowns per game went up to 1.25, his passing yards to 244, and most importantly, he saw a 215% increase in rushing output per game. After not being asked to run often in college, Fields showcased his abilities as an elite rusher at the NFL level.
A clean slate for Year 2
The Bears gutted the sidelines and front office after a disastrous 2021. For the first time in their team’s history, they entered a season with a new coach, a new general manager, and a new Week 1 quarterback. But much like Fields’ Week 2 appearance in his rookie season, the offense in 2022 looked atrocious. Through Week 5, Fields was averaging just 17.6 pass attempts per game, a volume lower than we have ever seen in modern football. Concerns about new head coach Matt Eberflus, Justin Fields, and his supporting cast started to pick up steam.
But over the next few weeks, the Bears kicked the training wheels off the offense and unleashed Justin Fields. He saw a bump in pass volume, but his rushing was the main storyline. From Weeks 6-11, Fields averaged 13.3 rushing attempts per game. His 8.0 yards per attempt on that volume would extrapolate to 1,813 rushing yards over an entire season. A record. Fields was scorching defenses with his legs and putting up highlight-worthy plays every week. A shoulder injury in Week 11’s loss caused him to slow down for the remainder of the season, but his 1,143 rushing yards finished as the second-most by a quarterback in NFL history, only behind Lamar Jackson in his 2019 MVP campaign. Fields’ best plays from this season make one of the most extraordinary single-season highlight reels in league history.
Did Justin Fields just put together the best single-season highlight reel in NFL history? pic.twitter.com/KGkdaajTiX
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) January 22, 2023
Despite a 3-14 finish and plenty of heart-breaking losses, 2022 was an exciting season for Bears fans. Justin Fields’ jersey was the 9th-best-selling jersey in the league. The Bears sold out 97.3% of their home game seats. Both home and away crowds would erupt when he would take off running. Fields even picked up an unexpected MVP vote.
Given the new front office and coaching staff, 2022 was a typical rebuild year with no expectations. They patched together a full roster with one-year deals and ate a trough full of dead cap.
But now the Bears head into the 2023 offseason with the No. 1 overall pick. Adam Schefter of NFL Network reported that “the Bears are going to have the opportunity to listen to some unbelievable offers for the No. 1 pick.” He added that the team can parlay that pick “into a bevy of future picks that can set up that franchise for years to come.” The Bears also sit on a league-high $94.4M in cap space, almost twice as much as the next closest team. They are set up for a splashy offseason, similar to Miami and Jacksonville last year.
A season highlighted by a string of brutal losses
On the road against Minnesota, Fields came into the game with a chance to lead a game-winning drive. He threw a perfect pass to Imhir Smith-Marsette. A defender stood up Smith-Marsette before yoinking the ball from his grasp. Fumble. Bears lose.
On a Thursday Night game against the Commanders, Fields led a beautiful drive to put them at the goal line. On fourth down, Darnell Mooney got off the line and darted to the sideline. As Fields uncorked the throw to an open Mooney, he inexplicably came back to the ball and was tackled short of a goal line. Bears lose.
Late in the third quarter against Dallas, the Bears found themselves in a close game. Fields hit David Montgomery wide open on a check-down. Montgomery was lit up on the play, Micah Parsons scooped it up and scored, and the Bears fell behind. Bears lose.
On fourth down, late in a close game against Miami, Fields rolled out of the pocket and threw a perfect pass to Equanimeous St. Brown for the first down. Dropped. Bears lose.
Against Detroit, Justin Fields ripped off a spectacular 67-yard rushing touchdown with 9:11 left in the game to put them up six points. Cairo Santos missed the extra point. The Lions drove the field on the next drive, capped it off with a Jamaal Williams touchdown, and made the extra point. Bears lose.
On the road in Atlanta, Justin Fields tied up the game with a long drive in the fourth quarter. Atlanta chipped away at the Bears' defense on the next drive before winning the game on a 53-yard field goal. Bears lose.
Outside of a lone win against New England in Week 7, the Bears had a string of unbelievably tough losses leading up to Fields’ injury, none of which you can place blame on Fields.
There was one bright spot in 2022: Justin Fields.
From outside the organization and fanbase, I understand why there is speculation about trading Justin Fields. His passing numbers could have been better. The team won three games. But to say that Justin Fields was the problem lacks all logical context.
For Bears fans and people who watched their games, it’s evident that Fields is an otherworldly talent and one of the best athletes in the league. He was forced to learn his second offense in as many years. He played behind a porous offensive line and with the league’s worst group of pass catchers. His defense allowed 27.2 points per game, the most in the league. There aren't many quarterbacks who would succeed in that ecosystem.
Fields’ playstyle and willingness to fight through injuries in a lost season made a lasting impression on Bears fans. The city fell in love with him. Regardless of a potential upgrade possible with a new quarterback, the Bears' front office would enrage the fanbase by trading away Fields. Again, the thought process behind trading Fields makes some sense. But football is a nuanced game. There's a lot more to Justin Fields than his box scores dictate. At the end of the day, the Chicago Bears are a business and hoping to be a profitable one. Spitting in the face of the fanbase by trading away their superstar quarterback after years of searching would be a terrible business decision.
Don’t believe me? Look at this poll I ran in the “Chicago Bears” Twitter community, an online circle comprised entirely of Bears fans:
The people have spoken. They want Fields to stay.
I don’t expect the conversation to go away. People will speculate until the draft is over. But next time you see someone recommend that the Bears trade away Fields, smile, nod, and keep scrolling.
The Bears found their guy, and he isn’t going anywhere. And if you’re wondering how he feels about the team that drafted him, he answered the question on Barstool Sports’ Pardon My Take podcast. "I'm a Bear for life.”