Ready for a Repeat

With a year of experience in Mike McDaniel's offense and a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle is poised for another Top 10 finish as one-half of the league's strongest wide receiver duo.

More like this: See the Terry McLaurin Spotlight here >>>

Our consensus projections have Waddle finishing as WR10.

Jaylen Waddle 2021

Jaylen Waddle had a remarkable rookie season, reminiscent of former Dolphins great Jarvis Landry. He quickly emerged as Miami's top receiving option, with 140 targets resulting in 104 receptions for 1,015 yards and six touchdowns.

DeVante Parker, his main competition for targets, only started eight games due to injury. No other receiver on the team had a snap share higher than 60% throughout the 17 games.

Waddle's outstanding performance earned him 25% of the team's targets, averaging over eight targets per game. As a result, he finished the season as the 13th-highest-scoring receiver in the league, an impressive feat for a rookie. However, heading into the 2022 season, he was undervalued due to a significant change.

The Dolphins acquired Tyreek Hill through a trade, giving up three picks in 2022 and two picks in 2023, along with a substantial contract extension. With Hill's arrival and his 159 targets in 2021, many drafters doubted Waddle's ability to replicate his success, let alone make a sophomore leap.

Top Receiver Duo in the League

Fantasy managers weren't the only ones concerned about Jaylen Waddle's workload; Coach McDaniel was aware of these concerns and had a plan. Instead of Tyreek Hill taking away targets from Waddle, McDaniel devised creative strategies to feature both receivers in the offense.

In 2022, Waddle had a similar opportunity but took on a "better in bestball" persona. The Dolphins utilized 12 personnel (1 running back and 2 tight ends, which leaves 2 spots for wide receivers) formations 61% of the time, the highest rate in the league, which doubled the second-highest total. This allowed the Dolphins' quarterbacks to focus on feeding their star receivers.

Waddle had an average snap share of nearly 80%, while Hill averaged just over 81%. None of the other receivers had a snap share higher than 60%. Waddle was targeted 21.6% of the time, compared to Hill's 31.6%. No other receiver was targeted more than 11% of the time. The only other significant target outside of Waddle and Hill was Trent Sherfield, who was targeted just 52 times.

In 2022, Waddle and Hill were one of two wide receiver duos to have a Top 15 single-game receiving performance.

TABLE: Top 20 Receiving Yard Games, 2022

The other combination was Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown. Hill himself had three of the top 10 single-game receiving yardage performances and appeared in the Top 20 four times.

Despite competing with one of the best wide receiver seasons ever, Waddle remained heavily involved. He deserves ample credit for his ability to earn targets, but it was McDaniel's scheme that made it all possible.

Waddle vs. the Field 2022

Despite the heavy emphasis on targeting the top two wide receivers in Miami's 12-personnel offense, Jaylen Waddle's volume metrics remained competitive with some of the best in the league. Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill finished third in the NFL in targets.

Waddle finished 7th in receiving yards, even though he ranked 24th in receptions.

Among the players currently ranked ahead of Waddle, only Garrett Wilson had fewer PPR points per game last season. While past production provides important context and is an indicator of future success, Waddle has multiple opportunities to improve, while some of the top players face challenges due to age.

Miami Dolphins 2022

The Miami Dolphins began the 2022 season with a significantly improved offense. Tua Tagovailoa was making strides to establish himself as a franchise quarterback. However, his season took a hit in Week 3 against the Buffalo Bills. Before delving into Tagovailoa's injury history, it's crucial to examine how the offense operated independently of the quarterback, particularly concerning Waddle.

Miami had the 7th highest pass rate in the league, with a rate of 61.97%. According to Establish the Run, their Pass Rate Over Expected was also 7th in the league at +2.3%. These figures may be surprising, considering that just a year prior, the San Francisco 49ers, with George McDaniel as their run game coordinator, had a -4.4% PROE in 2022.

The Dolphins' total DVOA ranked 8th according to Football Outsiders, with their passing DVOA coming in at 4th with 33%. They also scored the 6th most receiving touchdowns in the league, totaling 30.

Tua Tagovailoa 2022

In Week 2, Tagovailoa had a standout performance with 469 passing yards and 6 touchdowns, the highest number of touchdowns in a single game that season. However, his season took a turn in Week 3 when he suffered a concussion, or so it seemed. Despite showing clear signs of a concussion, the team insisted it was a spinal injury, leading to the dismissal of the team's independent neurologist. As a result, Tagovailoa missed the next two games.

Waddle's draft stock has been affected by concerns about being tied to an injury-prone quarterback like Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa missed a total of four games due to head and spine injuries.

With Tagovailoa on the field, the Dolphins averaged around 32 pass attempts per game. In the games without him, the attempts increased to over 37 per game. In the four full games without Tagovailoa, Waddle averaged 6 targets per game. Although three of those games resulted in modest production, in Week 6, with both Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson taking snaps, Waddle had 6 receptions for 129 yards.

Waddle managed to play in every game, despite suffering a groin strain in Week 13. He followed up his early exit with two consecutive games of over 100 receiving yards.

Miami Dolphins 2023

Due to a tampering allegation involving Tom Brady, the Dolphins forfeited their first-round draft pick. They added a rookie cornerback in the second round and another speedy running back, Devon Achane, in the third round.

The Dolphins didn't select a wide receiver until the 6th round when they picked tight-end hybrid Elijah Higgins. The only notable addition in free agency was Braxton Berrios, who is not expected to be in the rotation alongside Hill and Waddle.

Trent Sherfield, who was the clear-cut third wide receiver in 2022, signed with the division rival Buffalo Bills. Cedrick Wilson, who had only 18 targets in 2022, is expected to fill that void.

Mike Gesicki also packed his bags this offseason, heading to division rival New England. This leaves Durham Smythe to fill the void at tight end.

With the loss of two important role players and no replacements, the Dolphins are likely to increase their usage of 12 personnel in 2023. This not only makes their offense easier to project but also indicates more volume for Waddle this season.

Final Thoughts

Waddle is not currently undervalued, especially compared to his draft position last season. However, he offers more upside than anyone in his tier. If the Dolphins proceed with their current depth chart, which is likely, Waddle's potential paths to failure decrease significantly.

While he may have a boom-bust profile on a game-by-game basis, Waddle is poised to exceed his previous single-season totals in 2023.