Time to Trust Jaylen Waddle

Adam Wilde's Time to Trust Jaylen Waddle Adam Wilde Published 05/24/2023

Ready for a Repeat

With a year of experience in Mike McDaniel's offense and a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle is poised for another Top 10 finish as one-half of the league's strongest wide receiver duo.

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Our consensus projections have Waddle finishing as WR10.

Rank Name Team RuYds RuTD Recs RecYds RecTD FPTs
1 Justin Jefferson MIN 23.0 0.2 124.4 1,756 9.3 363.7
2 Cooper Kupp LAR 48.0 0.2 124.1 1,472 10.0 341.3
3 Tyreek Hill MIA 50.0 0.3 116.2 1,639 8.6 342.6
4 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 29.0 0.1 106.0 1,408 12.1 326.2
5 Stefon Diggs BUF 1.0 - 112.2 1,404 9.7 315.1
6 Davante Adams LV 11.0 - 99.4 1,351 10.1 300.5
7 CeeDee Lamb DAL 63.0 0.2 103.3 1,330 8.4 298.3
8 Amon-Ra St.Brown DET 79.0 0.3 113.7 1,234 7.4 294.9
9 A.J. Brown PHI - - 84.6 1,364 9.7 281.7
10 Jaylen Waddle MIA 21.0 0.2 83.2 1,308 7.0 262.6
11 Garrett Wilson NYJ 17.0 - 88.0 1,202 6.7 254.3
12 DK Metcalf SEA 1.0 - 84.6 1,120 8.4 251.4
13 Chris Olave NO 10.0 - 87.9 1,261 5.6 252.3
14 DeVonta Smith PHI - - 89.5 1,154 6.9 248.5
15 Tee Higgins CIN - - 84.5 1,168 7.2 246.7

Jaylen Waddle 2021

Jaylen Waddle had a remarkable rookie season, reminiscent of former Dolphins great Jarvis Landry. He quickly emerged as Miami's top receiving option, with 140 targets resulting in 104 receptions for 1,015 yards and six touchdowns.

DeVante Parker, his main competition for targets, only started eight games due to injury. No other receiver on the team had a snap share higher than 60% throughout the 17 games.

Waddle's outstanding performance earned him 25% of the team's targets, averaging over eight targets per game. As a result, he finished the season as the 13th-highest-scoring receiver in the league, an impressive feat for a rookie. However, heading into the 2022 season, he was undervalued due to a significant change.

The Dolphins acquired Tyreek Hill through a trade, giving up three picks in 2022 and two picks in 2023, along with a substantial contract extension. With Hill's arrival and his 159 targets in 2021, many drafters doubted Waddle's ability to replicate his success, let alone make a sophomore leap.

Top Receiver Duo in the League

Fantasy managers weren't the only ones concerned about Jaylen Waddle's workload; Coach McDaniel was aware of these concerns and had a plan. Instead of Tyreek Hill taking away targets from Waddle, McDaniel devised creative strategies to feature both receivers in the offense.

In 2022, Waddle had a similar opportunity but took on a "better in bestball" persona. The Dolphins utilized 12 personnel (1 running back and 2 tight ends, which leaves 2 spots for wide receivers) formations 61% of the time, the highest rate in the league, which doubled the second-highest total. This allowed the Dolphins' quarterbacks to focus on feeding their star receivers.

Waddle had an average snap share of nearly 80%, while Hill averaged just over 81%. None of the other receivers had a snap share higher than 60%. Waddle was targeted 21.6% of the time, compared to Hill's 31.6%. No other receiver was targeted more than 11% of the time. The only other significant target outside of Waddle and Hill was Trent Sherfield, who was targeted just 52 times.

In 2022, Waddle and Hill were one of two wide receiver duos to have a Top 15 single-game receiving performance.

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