Anthony Richardson is in a tier of his own, just below C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young and just above Will Levis. But he has a massive range of outcomes. The NFL has taught us so much about how they value quarterback prospects over the last two seasons. Look no further than 2021 to find a few hints about what we may see in 2023. By most accounts, Justin Fields was a significantly better prospect than Richardson, yet multiple quarterback-needy teams passed him on before the Bears traded up for his rights. Conversely, two quarterbacks were drafted ahead of Fields, whom many felt were lesser talents, and each of their situations shared similarities with Richardson. Trey Lance and Zach Wilson had weaker resumes than Fields but were drafted earlier based on their perceived ceilings despite their lack of consistent production.
In 2022, many people believed Malik Willis would be a first-round selection. Some even believed he would be selected second overall by the Lions. The edgier articles made waves by suggesting he could potentially fall to the second round. Lo and behold, he lasted well into the third round. Make no mistake, Richardson is a significantly better prospect than Willis from a year ago, but the NFL is seemingly wising up to the dangers of reaching for a quarterback. Just because a team in the top five desperately needs a quarterback no longer means they will draft whoever is available to throw passes.
This leaves us open-minded to more options than just the teams with the firepower to trade up to 1.03. Richardson is likely to fall somewhere between 3rd and 16th. Who is going to take the chance on his incredible upside?
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Tennessee Titans, Pick 11
2022 Offensive Scoring: 23rd
Rumors have swelled about the Titans trading up to select Richardson second overall. Based on the behavior of the league the last few seasons, it seems the Titans may be able to stand firm at 11 while still getting their signal caller of the future. Ryan Tannehill is a free agent after 2023, and no talks of an extension have been made public. Pairing the departure of Tannehill with the fact that Derrick Henry’s time is growing short means the Titans should be desperate to look to the future. Their first-time general manager Ran Carthon can get a head start on his 2024 “retooling” by drafting Richardson and giving him at least part of a season to learn the ropes before being thrust into action.
Indianapolis Colts, Pick 4
2022 Offensive Scoring: 32nd
The further we get into draft season, the more likely it is that Arizona could simply draft Will Anderson at Pick 3. The Colts may explore a deal with the Cardinals to move up one spot as a way of blocking the rest of the league from drafting Richardson, but I don’t feel that’s necessary. I believe Anderson is a more valuable prospect than Richardson, and the NFL may agree. If that’s the case, then Indianapolis has an easy decision on its hands. They get to draft their signal caller of the future at Pick 4 without trading away any draft capital. Richardson would be able to see the field as quickly as he could beat out Gardner Minshew and would have a chance to excel in Shane Steichen’s Philadelphia-style offense.
Atlanta Falcons, Pick 8
2022 Offensive Scoring: 17th
For the Falcons to select Richardson at Pick 8, that would require both the Seahawks and the Raiders to pass on him. In the case of Seattle, they just made the playoffs on the heels of an incredible season from Geno Smith and signed him to an affordable contract. They’re far more likely to add a quality producer at Pick 5. Las Vegas seems more likely to take Will Levis if they decide to go quarterback immediately after signing Jimmy Garoppolo. Atlanta would have an exciting young quarterback fall into their lap, even though they’ve been insistent on moving forward with Desmond Ridder.
Seattle Seahawks, Pick 5 and Pick 20
2022 Offensive Scoring: 10th
If Seattle is enamored with Richardson, they’ll likely need to make me a liar and take him at Pick 5. With that being said, passing on him doesn’t necessarily take the Seahawks out of the running. They also have Pick 20. While Richardson is not likely to make it to 20, Seattle could use their pick in a package to trade up if he starts sliding into the teens. In 2021 the Bears made that exact move from Pick 20 to draft Justin Fields when he fell outside the top 10.
Washington Commanders, Pick 16
2022 Offensive Scoring: 23rd
Ron Rivera recently made headlines when he revealed that the Commanders had not even considered adding Lamar Jackson. Given the respect most have for him, I’m going to paint the picture that their focus has been on the rookie quarterbacks. The division formally known as the “NFC Least” is all of a sudden loaded with powerhouses, and Washington is prepared to make a run at the title if they could find a viable option like Richardson, especially if they manage to get him without having to move up from Pick 16.
I won’t rule out Anthony Richardson at Pick 3, but it would be a reach. He is incredibly talented and has the dual-threat ability that teams are clamoring for, but there are multiple defenders more deserving of selections 1.03 through 1.07. Richardson will likely spark interest around Pick 8 when the Falcons start taking calls, even though they’d be best off selecting him themselves. He should be long gone by Pick 16 but has little to no chance of making it past the Commanders.