Week 22 Props
Brock Purdy Over 12.5 Rushing Yards
When you think about Brock Purdy, his scrambling ability is not something that we’ve frequently seen in the NFL. However, he’s more than capable of running as in his two playoff games this season he has run for 14 and 48 yards. Kansas City has struggled against quarterbacks running the ball, as over their last five games, every quarterback has topped 25 yards or more as Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, Easton Stick, and Jake Browning all did it. While Jackson and Allen are to be expected, for Tua to do it when he had not topped 15 yards in any other game prior to running for 25 against the Chiefs indicates where their defense currently is at. They’re a blitz heavy defense that if you don’t get to the quarterback can leave running lanes for the opponent.
Combined TD Scorer Jersey Number Over 121.5
Let’s just assume that it’s likely that Christian McCaffrey finds the end-zone considering he’s -235 to do so and has scored in all but three games this season. That starts us with 23. Now, if either George Kittle or Travis Kelce score a touchdown, that puts us almost to the number as Kittle is 85 and Kelce is 87. For the Chiefs, any of the wide receivers are tough as Brandon Aiyuk (11), Deebo Samuel (19), Jauan Jennings (15) are all in the low numbers instead of the 80’s like a Chris Conley. For Kansas City, it’s a similar story as the only wide receiver in the 80’s is Justin Watson who has just three touchdowns on the season. So this prop essentially turns into will either George Kittle or Travis Kelce score a touchdown as without one of those two finding the end-zone it is incredibly difficult for this to hit without some weird things such as defensive scores.
George Kittle Under 49.5 Receiving Yards
With Deebo Samuel’s return from injury, George Kittle has been relegated back to a secondary receiving option in this offense. Last week, Kittle had just three targets last week with Samuel leading the team with nine. Kittle has four receptions or fewer in seven of his last eight games, so you’re really banking on a big play from him in order to get to the over 49.5 receiving yards as there are just so many targets for the 49ers that it is difficult to ensure that he will get the targets needed without a big play. Unfortunately for the 49ers, the Chiefs are amongst the league’s best pass defenses particularly against the tight ends as they’re allowing just 45 total receiving yards per game to all tight ends which is 8th-best in the NFL this season including holding Mark Andrews to just 15 yards last week.
Boston Celtics More Team Points than Kansas City Team Rushing Yards
Back in the day, I ran Basketballguys in the short lifespan that Footballguys dipped their toes in another sport back in 2016, so it seems like the right time to have some fun and include a basketball prop. This is a great one as you’re getting ready for the Super Bowl, as the game starts at 1PM, and rooting for as many points as possible from Boston who has averaged 122 points per game over the last four games. For Kansas City, they’re taking on a San Francisco team that has struggled against the run the last two games allowing 138 against Detroit and 127 against Green Bay. However, coming off of a two-week bye to evaluate personnel it has led to rumors that Chase Young could see a reduction in playing time this week as the acquired defensive end has been abysmal against the run this season oftentimes looking simply uninterested. This is a defense that during the regular season had allowed just 65 yards rushing to opposing running backs which was the second-best in the NFL. With no Joe Thuney for Kansas City that’s a massive loss on the offensive line this week as the All-Pro guard will be replaced by backup center Nick Allegretti which could cause some issues in the interior of the offensive line compared to the talented defensive line of San Francisco.
Time of Possession First Drive Over 3:15 Minutes
With these two teams, we have arguably the two best offensive playcallers in the NFL. For Andy Reid, he is widely regarded as the best coach coming off of a bye in the NFL throughout his career as he is 31-7 with a week off. In the playoffs, every first drive for the Chiefs has been over 3:15, while San Francisco had a 3:13 drive and a 5:24 drive in their first two this postseason. The reality is that all you need is one first-down for this to more than likely hit and the offenses have such an advantage with the plays that are scripted as these are the plays that the team is practicing almost every day heading into the game.