Passing Matchups Week 8

Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.

Top 5 Passing Matchups

Chicago at LA Chargers

Undrafted rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent has been a pleasant surprise, exceeding expectations with his recent performance in the victory against the Las Vegas Raiders. Bagent's story is quite remarkable, coming from Division II Shepherd University and not being considered among the top 10 quarterbacks for the 2023 NFL Draft. He has shown maturity and restraint by not trying to do too much, maintaining a 72% completion rate, and demonstrating a quick release, which has led to sound decision-making. However, there are still areas of concern for Bagent, particularly his yards-per-attempt metric. Despite the impressive completion rate, he averages only 5.7 yards per attempt, which would rank him 31st in the NFL this season if he qualified based on attempts. To solidify his role as a starting quarterback, he will need to exhibit more downfield throwing ability.

The Chargers' secondary has struggled throughout the season, ranking as the worst in the NFL, allowing 336 passing yards per game. Last week, they were torched by Patrick Mahomes II for 424 yards, marking the second time this year that they've allowed 420 or more yards in a game, with the first instance occurring against the Miami Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa. The secondary's issues stem from a lack of talent, with notable struggles from cornerbacks Ja'Sir Taylor and Michael Davis, and safety Derwin James experiencing a challenging start to his career. Elite players like Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Travis Kelce have exploited the Chargers' defensive vulnerabilities. In this game, consistent pass rush will be a significant factor. The Chargers rank 8th in the league in sacks, led by defensive stalwarts Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. Meanwhile, the Bears have allowed the 3rd-most sacks this season. The matchup between Khalil Mack, facing his former team, and the Bears' offensive line could have a substantial impact on the outcome.

Pittsburgh vs Jacksonville

Kenny Pickett has been managing the Pittsburgh offense effectively, contributing to their 4-2 record this season. While his passing numbers haven't been eye-popping, averaging just 210 passing yards with 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, it's worth noting that the Steelers have faced a challenging schedule of pass defenses, including teams like Cleveland, San Francisco, Baltimore, the Los Angeles Rams, Las Vegas, and an improving Houston defense. None of these defenses rank in the top half of matchups this week. Diontae Johnson's return from injury was solid, recording 5 receptions for 79 yards. Expect the Steelers to target him more in the passing game, as he averaged 9.7 targets per game over the last two seasons but has seen a dip to an average of 6.0 targets per game this year.

On the other side, the Jacksonville defense has struggled significantly, even falling short of modest expectations. They've allowed 280 passing yards or more in five of their seven games this season. In their recent three-game stretch, they allowed over 300 passing yards to quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Gardner Minshew, and Derek Carr, with Patrick Mahomes II also surpassing 300 passing yards against them earlier in the season. One of the primary issues for the Jaguars is their pass rush, which ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this season. This is surprising, considering the defense was built around its pass rush. Outside of edge rusher Josh Allen, the team lacks consistent pass rushers, including 2022 top overall pick Travon Walker. The secondary, led by Darious Williams, has been under significant pressure due to the lack of pass rush. The potential return of Tyson Campbell may provide some help, but it's uncertain whether he can make a substantial impact, given his limited availability this season.

Philadelphia at Washington

The Philadelphia Eagles' passing attack has shown significant improvement after a slow start to the season. Jalen Hurts struggled in the first two games, failing to throw for 180 yards. However, since those two games, he has averaged 291 passing yards per game. A.J. Brown has been a standout performer, recording 125 receiving yards or more in each of his last five games. One potential concern is the health of quarterback Jalen Hurts, who is dealing with a knee injury. While signs point toward him playing in the upcoming game, there's a possibility that he may be less mobile than usual due to the injury. This could impact his rushing ability, although it may benefit the passing numbers. This is one of the most talented units in the NFL, especially now that Dallas Goedert has bounced back from his early season struggles, as he has averaged 79 receiving yards per game over his last three games.

Washington’s pass defense began the season with promise, holding Joshua Dobbs to 132 passing yards in Week 1 and limiting Josh Allen to 218 passing yards in Week 3. However, they've allowed an average of 299 passing yards per contest in their other five games. This is concerning, especially considering the quarterbacks they've faced, including Tyrod Taylor, Desmond Ridder, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, and Russell Wilson. In their first matchup this season, Hurts had a successful outing against Washington's defense, throwing for 319 yards and 2 touchdowns. The secondary has struggled against opposing number one receivers, with Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, DJ Moore, and Drake London all recording 100-yard games. Notably, Moore had a massive performance with 230 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Brown contributed 175 yards and 2 touchdowns. This team has talent, especially on the outside corners, with Benjamin St-Juste and Kendall Fuller. Still, they have some massive holes, particularly at slot corner as Danny Johnson has replaced the benched Emmanuel Forbes. At the same time, at safety, Percy Butler has been forced to take on a more prominent role with Darrick Forest placed on IR.

Kansas City at Denver

The Kansas City Chiefs appear to be finding their rhythm after a slower start by their standards. In their last two games against two of the NFL's weakest passing defenses, Patrick Mahomes II had impressive performances, throwing for 424 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Chargers and 306 yards and a touchdown against Denver. While the Chiefs have faced challenges in finding consistent wide receiver play, 2023 second-round rookie Rashee Rice is emerging as a player with upside, recording 60 yards or more in each of his last two games. Additionally, the return of Mecole Hardman via trade should provide another weapon for the offense, as he was seeing significant playing time before his 2022 injury. The focal point of the Chiefs' passing game continues to be tight end Travis Kelce, who is coming off a career day with 12 receptions for 179 yards and a touchdown.

The Denver Broncos' defense serves as a litmus test for opposing offenses. They have stifled bottom-tier quarterbacks like Jordan Love, Zach Wilson, and Jimmy Garoppolo, none of whom threw for more than 200 passing yards against this defense. However, in their other four games, the Broncos have allowed 299 passing yards or more in each contest. This includes performances by Patrick Mahomes II, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields, and Sam Howell. Fields and Howell, though not considered top-tier quarterbacks, averaged 317 passing yards and 3 touchdowns against the Broncos' secondary. The Broncos made a change in their secondary, benching struggling cornerback Damarri Mathis and replacing him with veteran Fabian Moreau, which could improve their pass defense. However, there may be concerns on the defensive front, as safety Kareem Jackson is suspended for multiple illegal hits, and safety Justin Simmons is questionable with a hip injury.

LA Chargers vs Chicago

The Los Angeles Chargers have been struggling offensively in recent weeks, averaging just 217 passing yards per game over their last three contests. Several factors contribute to this downturn, including facing tough opponents like Kansas City, Las Vegas, and Dallas. Additionally, the loss of wide receiver Mike Williams to an ACL injury has impacted their passing game. While Joshua Palmer has performed well in Williams' absence, Keenan Allen's production has dropped, with an average of 4.7 receptions for 57 yards over his last three games. The Chargers will also look to incorporate running back Austin Ekeler more into the passing game, as he hasn't had a significant role since returning two weeks ago.

The Chicago Bears' pass defense has shown improvement over the season, with standout performances from cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who is emerging as one of the NFL's top corners. However, there are still vulnerabilities in the secondary, particularly with rookie cornerback Tyrique Stevenson struggling as an every-down starter. Safety Jaquan Brisker has had difficulties in coverage and is more effective as a run-stopper. The biggest issue for the Bears is their lackluster pass rush, despite offseason acquisitions like DeMarcus Walker and Yannick Ngakoue. Chicago ranks third-to-last in sacks this season with only 10, with half of those coming in a game against Washington, a team that is on pace to set the NFL record for most sacks allowed in a season.

Bottom 5 Passing Matchups

LA Rams at Dallas

The Los Angeles Rams' performance in their last game was somewhat perplexing, as they adopted a run-heavy approach despite having star receiver Cooper Kupp in their lineup. Kupp had just two receptions for 29 yards in that game. While Puka Nacua had a standout performance with eight receptions for 154 yards, no other player on the team managed to exceed 31 yards receiving. The Rams passed for just 231 yards in total, completing less than 50% of their passes. This was a stark departure from their earlier games, where they averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game, including three 300-yard passing performances in the five games before Kupp's return. Since Kupp's return, they've averaged just 26.5 pass attempts per game. With Kyren Williams placed on injured reserve, the Rams need to improve their passing game quickly to remain competitive in the playoff race.

On the defensive side, the Dallas Cowboys rebounded impressively after a disappointing performance against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 5. In that game, the 49ers threw for 252 yards on just 24 attempts and added four touchdowns. However, aside from that game, the Cowboys' defense has been nearly flawless, allowing an average of only 181 passing yards per game. While there were questions about their schedule, as they faced less experienced quarterbacks in their first five games, the Cowboys stepped up in Week 6, holding Justin Herbert to just 227 passing yards on 37 attempts. Despite the season-ending injury to Trevon Diggs, Dallas boasts one of the NFL's top cornerback groups, featuring Stefon Gilmore, second-year standout DaRon Bland, and Jourdan Lewis, who is filling in for Diggs but was a starter for the Cowboys last season. With the defense coming off a bye week, they should continue to be formidable.

Seattle vs Cleveland

Last week, the Seattle Seahawks secured a comfortable 20-10 victory despite being without DK Metcalf. Geno Smith has been an inconsistent quarterback this season, with some games where he threw for over 290 yards and others where he averaged just 147 passing yards per game. The Seahawks possess a high-potential offense, boasting one of the NFL's best wide receiver groups with Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Metcalf is expected to return this week, but there are concerns about Lockett's availability as he did not practice on Wednesday due to a hamstring injury. If Lockett cannot play this week, expect a continued involvement of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and potentially Jake Bobo, who led the team in yards last week as the undrafted rookie had 61 yards last week.

Despite a subpar performance last week, the Cleveland Browns' passing defense remains among the top five in the league this season. While they allowed 305 passing yards on just 23 attempts to Gardner Minshew and the Colts, it's worth noting that big plays were the main issue, with three passes going for 30 yards or longer, including two long touchdown passes. On the season, the Browns allow an average of 171 passing yards per game, which is the best in the league by a significant margin (22 yards ahead of the second-ranked team, Dallas at 193 yards per game). Their defense has been dominant overall, led by Myles Garrett, but with strong performances from players throughout the lineup. The secondary, including Juan Thornhill, Grant Delpit, Denzel Ward, and Greg Newsome, has been particularly impressive, contributing to the unit's success.

Top of Form

Cleveland at Seattle

The Cleveland Browns will again be without Deshaun Watson this week, adding to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding their passing offense. Even with Watson, the Browns' passing attack has had its limitations, but they have struggled significantly without him. In the three games since Watson's injury, quarterbacks Dorian Thompson-Robinson and P.J. Walker have combined for an average of just 164 passing yards and have not thrown a single passing touchdown while throwing six interceptions. Last week, the Browns faced challenges connecting with Amari Cooper, with him not receiving a target in the first half and only completing two of his eight targets in the game. The Browns could be in a tough spot where they're relying on their passing game in this one, as Jerome Ford has already been ruled out with an ankle injury, while Kareem Hunt is also not practicing due to a thigh injury.

The Seattle Seahawks' secondary has had an intriguing season characterized by two distinct phases. In the first three games, they were one of the NFL's weakest units, allowing an average of 339 passing yards per game to quarterbacks like Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and Andy Dalton. However, in the last three games, they have transformed into a much-improved group, surrendering only 179 passing yards per game while shutting down quarterbacks like Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones, and Joshua Dobbs. The emergence of Devon Witherspoon, the 2023 5th overall pick, as an elite cornerback, along with moving Jamal Adams to the slot cornerback position, has contributed to their improvement. If the Seahawks can stay healthy, this unit, with Tariq Woolen, Witherspoon, and Adams, makes up a formidable secondary compared to earlier this season when they were forced to start players such as Artie Burns, Michael Jackson, and Coby Bryant. The Seahawks' defense is well-coached under Pete Carroll and defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt, and their turnaround this season has been impressive. P.J. Walker should expect a tough challenge against this defense.

Detroit vs Las Vegas

The Detroit Lions have found themselves relying heavily on their passing attack due to a series of injuries and attrition. With David Montgomery's early injury in Week 6, it has become evident that the team trusts their passing game more than their running backs. In the past two games, they have thrown the ball a remarkable 48.5 times per game compared to just 18.0 rushing attempts. While the increased passing volume can lead to fantasy football success, it's not the Lions' preferred offensive approach, as they aim for a balanced offense. The key factor for this week will be David Montgomery's health. As this is a Monday Night game, his status remains uncertain, but he is listed as questionable as of Wednesday. If he's unable to play, expect the Lions to continue their pass-heavy strategy, with Amon-Ra St. Brown likely being a primary target, as he has seen 34 targets over his last two games.

The Las Vegas Raiders' pass defense has been surprising in the 2023 season. Preseason expectations were that they would have a below-average pass defense, slightly better than the previous year when they allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game. However, offseason moves have paid off, and they are currently allowing just 200 passing yards per game, which is the fourth-fewest in the league. No quarterback has thrown for over 275 yards against this secondary, with Josh Allen being the only one to surpass 250 yards. The addition of safety Marcus Epps from the Eagles and the development of Tre'von Moehrig have played significant roles in this turnaround. Additionally, the veteran presence of Marcus Peters at cornerback has had a positive impact on the entire cornerback group, which includes young talents like Nate Hobbs and David Long, who can learn from Peters' experience and success.

Indianapolis vs New Orleans

Gardner Minshew had an impressive performance last week against the Cleveland defense, which had been speculated to be an all-time great defense. Minshew threw for 305 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 23 attempts, relying on big plays to move the ball effectively. His mobility was key as he frequently scrambled outside the pocket and made throws on the run. Rookie receiver Josh Downs played a significant role in the passing attack, amassing 125 yards. In the four games that Gardner Minshew has started for the Colts this season, Downs has averaged 75 receiving yards. With Jonathan Taylor returning to top form last week, it should only benefit the passing offense, as opponents will need to respect the run game, which may open up opportunities for Minshew to pass for over 300 yards, as he did in the two games that Taylor has started.

The New Orleans Saints have been impressive in shutting down their opponents this season. Over the past two weeks, the Saints' defense has transformed from a unit that faced less formidable quarterbacks to one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. In the first five weeks, they faced quarterbacks like Ryan Tannehill, Bryce Young, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, and Mac Jones, which led to some skepticism. However, in the last two weeks, the Saints have effectively contained C.J. Stroud and Trevor Lawrence, limiting them to an average of 201.5 passing yards per game. Throughout the season, the Saints have not allowed a quarterback to surpass 260 yards and have held four teams to under 200 passing yards. Led by defensive coordinator Dennis Allen and a veteran secondary featuring players like Marcus Lattimore, Tyrann Mathieu, and Marcus Maye, the Saints boast one of the best-coached defenses in the NFL.