Fantasy Overview - Week 3

We are two weeks into the season, and we're starting to get some clarity, which is always a good thing, no matter if it's good news or bad. It's the unknown and making important decisions involving the unknown that make this hobby a challenge. The more we know, the better off we are.

SO WHAT DO WE KNOW? A LOT, ACTUALLY

The first three weeks of the season are my favorite. So much is being learned at this time. The cream is rising to the top. Opportunities are being presented to players, and several have answered the bell with a successful first two games. Injuries are starting to mount, especially for quarterbacks. With every injury comes an opportunity for someone else to fill the void, and the cycle continues. Winning your league is about having key performers and knowing who to target before they rise to power. Although it's not a must, players on winning teams are generally more successful fantasy options.

• Teams that are 2-0: Miami, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Washington, Dallas, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, San Francisco.
• Teams that are 0-2: New England, Cincinnati, Houston, Denver, Los Angeles, Minnesota, Chicago, Carolina, and Arizona.

WHAT MAKES A SUCCESSFUL RUNNING BACK?

1. Opportunity - There is more of a chance to have success if the opportunity for carries is high. The following teams lead the way in running plays per game. You want to have running backs on these teams. These are also the backs you should target for proactive waiver claims, if available.

• 37.5 Cleveland (Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt, Pierre Strong)
• 37.0 Dallas (Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn)
• 36.5 Philadelphia (Kenneth Gainwell, Rashaad Penny, Boston Scott)
• 36.5 Atlanta (Tyler Allgeier, Cordarrelle Patterson)
• 34.5 Baltimore (Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Melvin Gordon)
• 33.5 Tampa Bay (Sean Tucker, Chase Edmonds)
• 31.0 LA Rams (Kyren Williams, Ronnie Rivers)
• 31.0 San Francisco (Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason)
• 30.5 LA Chargers (Joshua Kelley, Elijah Dotson, Isaiah Spiller)
• 30.5 Detroit (Craig Reynolds)
• 30.0 New Orleans (Tony Jones, Kendre Miller)

The more plays a team runs, the greater the chance of having positive fantasy success. Understanding which teams run more plays per game and which teams run fewer will give us a better indication of which players to target when it comes to setting a lineup.

Total Plays Per Game

Teams in green run more plays per game so naturally, the chances are higher for more production. The opposite is true for teams in red.

• 78.0 LAR
• 76.5 CLE
• 75.5 HOU
• 74.5 NE
• 71.0 BUF
• 70.5 LAC
• 69.0 DAL, NO
• 68.0 TB, PHI
• 67.0 DET
• 66.5 JAC
• 66.0 NYG
• 65.5 WAS
• 64.0 CAR, BAL
• 63.0 ATL, MIA, KC
• 62.5 IND
• 61.0 TEN
• 60.5 CHI
• 60.0 SF, DEN
• 59.0 MIN, ARI
• 57.0 PIT
• 56.5 SEA
• 55.5 CIN
• 53.5 GB
• 49.5 NYJ
• 47.0 LSV

Total Plays Allowed Per Game

The teams are allowing the fewest plays per game. It would stand to reason that you would want to target your players who are playing against the teams in green and shy away from players who are playing the teams in red.

• 75.5 NYJ
• 74.0 GB, IND
• 73.5 PIT, MIA
• 71.5 MIN
• 71.0 CIN, SEA
• 69.5 SF
• 67.0 KC
• 66.5 PHI, JAC
• 66.0 LSV, ARI
• 64.5 BAL, DET, TEN
• 64.0 LAC, CHI
• 61.0 NE, CAR
• 60.5 DEN
• 60.0 WAS
• 59.5 ATL
• 57.5 NYG, NO
• 57.0 HOU, TB
• 55.5 DAL
• 53.5 CLE
• 50.0 LAR
• 46.0 BUF

Positive matchups favoring a high number of plays for Week 3 - NE at NYJ is a favorable matchup for New England. The Patriots are in the top third in total plays per game, and the Jets are in the top third in total plays allowed per game. The Chargers at Minnesota is another matchup to exploit, particularly for Los Angeles.

Negative matchups in terms of the number of plays for Week 3 - CIN vs. LAR, GB vs. NO, and ARI vs. DAL

KEY STATS FOR IDENTIFYING WIDE RECEIVER SUCCESS

Target Percentage (20% or higher of the team's targets)

Use this as a benchmark for who deserves stronger consideration when setting your lineup. These are the players who are consistent targets for their respective teams.

• 40% Puka Nacua, LAR
• 38% Jakobi Meyers, LSV
• 35% Davante Adams, LSV
• 33% Michael Pittman Jr, IND
• 33% Tyreek Hill, MIA
• 31% Zay Flowers, BAL
• 31% Chris Olave, NO
• 31% Deebo Samuel, SF
• 30% Zach Ertz, ARI
• 30% DeAndre Hopkins, TEN
• 30% Garrett Wilson, NYJ
• 30% A.J. Brown, PHI
• 29% Justin Jefferson, MIN
• 28% Tee Higgins, CIN
• 28% Mike Evans, TB
• 28% DeVonta Smith, PHI
• 27% Calvin Ridley, JAC
• 27% Keenan Allen, LAC
• 27% Brandon Aiyuk, SF
• 26% Stefon Diggs, BUF
• 26% Marquise Brown, ARI
• 26% CeeDee Lamb, DAL
• 25% Bijan Robinson, ATL
• 25% George Pickens, PIT
• 25% Michael Thomas, NO
• 25% Mike Williams, LAC
• 25% Jayden Reed, GB
• 25% Amari Cooper, CLE
• 25% Ja'Marr Chase, CIN
• 24% Mark Andrews, BAL
• 24% Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET
• 23% Elijah Moore, CLE
• 23% Nico Collins, HOU
• 23% Travis Kelce, KC
• 22% Robert Woods, TEN
• 22% Jamal Agnew, JAC
• 22% Chris Godwin, TB
• 22% Tyler Lockett, SEA
• 21% Mack Hollins, ATL
• 21% Jonathan Mingo, CAR
• 21% Courtland Sutton, DEN
• 21% Kendrick Bourne, NE
• 20% Cole Kmet, CHI
• 20% Josh Reynolds, DET
• 20% T.J. Hockenson, MIN
• 20% Darren Waller, NYG

Receptions on first down

Players on this list are generally thought to be a reliable source. All have at least 6 receptions on first down

• 7, Mike Williams, LAC
• 7, Stefon Diggs, BUF
• 7, Tyreek Hill, KC
• 7, Tutu Atwell, LAR
• 6, Mike Evans, TB
• 6, Hayden Hurst, CAR
• 6, Puka Nacua, LAR
• 6, Keenan Allen, LAC
• 6, Michael Pittman Jr, IND
• 6, DeAndre Hopkins, TEN
• 6, Deebo Samuel, SF
• 6, Terry McLaurin, WAS
• 6, Zach Ertz, ARI
• 6, CeeDee Lamb, DAL

Receptions resulting in a first down

Teams rely on these players to sustain drives and move the ball.

• 14 Tyreek Hill, MIA
• 14 Justin Jefferson, MIN
• 13 Puka Nacua, LAR
• 12 Tutu Atwell, LAR
• 11 Brandon Aiyuk, SF
• 10 CeeDee Lamb, DAL
• 9 Nico Collins, HOU
• 9 Josh Reynolds, DET
• 9 Stefon Diggs, DET
• 9 Davante Adams, LSV
• 9 Chris Olave, NO
• 8 Michael Pittman Jr, IND
• 8 Gabe Davis, BUF
• 8 Robert Woods, TEN
• 8 Amari Cooper, CLE

Wide receivers with 10+ targets in each game

• Justin Jefferson, MIN
• Puka Nacua, LAR
• Chris Olave, NO
• Michael Pittman Jr, IND

Wide receivers with 6+ receptions in each game

• Davante Adams, LSV
• Keenan Allen, LAC
• Tutu Atwell, LAR
• Nico Collins, HOU
• Stefon Diggs, BUF
• Mike Evans, TB
• Justin Jefferson, MIN
• Puka Nacua, LAR
• Chris Olave, NO
• Michael Pittman Jr, IND
• Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET
• Robert Woods, HOU

TIGHT END PRODUCTION

Tight ends with 6+ targets in each game

• Zach Ertz, ARI
• Hunter Henry, NE
• T.J. Hockenson, MIN
• Cole Kmet, CHI

Tight ends with 50+ receiving yards in each game

• Hunter Henry, NE

Tight ends with 5+ receptions in each game

• Evan Engram, JAC
• Zach Ertz, ARI
• Hunter Henry, NE
• T.J. Hockenson, MIN
• Sam LaPorta, DET

HAVE FANTASY PLAYERS ON HIGH-SCORING TEAMS

Top scoring teams through Week 2 (points scored)

• 70 DAL
• 62 GB
• 60 SF, MIA
• 59 PHI
• 58 LAC
• 55 WAS
• 54 BUF
• 53 LAR
• 52 DET, BAL, IND
• 50 SEA
• 49 DEN, ATL
• 47 TB
• 46 CLE
• 45 MIN
• 44 ARI
• 42 TEN
• 40 JAC
• 37 KC, CHI
• 36 NO
• 33 PIT
• 32 NYJ
• 31 NYG
• 29 HOU
• 27 CIN, CAR, LSV

PLAYER NOTES All 32 teams

Some notes on players for those who are in deeper leagues.

• Drake London went from a 6% team target share in Week 1 to 24% in Week 2.
• Zay Flowers went from 48% team target share in Week 1 to 15% in Week 2. Mark Andrews did not play in Week 1. Andrews had a 24% target share in Week 2.
• Justice Hill runs a route on 41% of snaps. The next closest Ravens running back is at 17% (Gus Edwards).
• James Cook leads Bills running backs with a route run on 53% of snaps. Next in line is Latavius Murray at 24%. Cook's team's rushing market share is also highest at 49%. Damien Harris is next at 20%.
• Miles Sanders controls 65% of Carolina's rushing share. He and Adam Thielen share an 18% team target share. Jonathan Mingo leads the team with 21%.
• Roschon Johnson's rushing team carry share went from 17% in Week 1 to 25% in Week 2. Khalil Herbert leads the team with a 37% share (Fields is at 28%).
• Joe Mixon has a super-high 87% team rushing share percentage
• Elijah Moore and Amari Cooper both have 23% and 25% team target share percentages. No other receiver is above 10%, including David Njoku.
• If Brandin Cooks (knee) is out in Week 3, Michael Gallup has a higher route run % than Jalen Tolbert, but Tolbert has a higher team target share. Lean Tolbert is the one who fills the void most.
• Marvin Mims had a big splash play in Week 2, but his % of plays where he runs a route is only 21%
• According to Detroit team target share, Jahmyr Gibbs is 4th on the list at 16%. However, in Week 2, he jumped up to 26%, the highest on the team.
• Jayden Reed controlled 32% of the Packers team target share in Week 2.
• Tank Dell's team target share jumped from 9% in Week 1 to 23% in Week 2.
• The top three targets for IND include Michael Pittman Jr, Josh Downs, and Kylen Grnason. It's been that way in both games.
• Travis Etienne Jr. has 76% of the team's snaps, while Tank Bigsby is at 20%.
• Outside of Travis Kelce, no Chiefs player has a team target share percentage over 13%. Kadarius Toney is next on the list behind Kelce, but it's a smorgasbord of players in that zone.
• Like Cleveland, the Chargers have two main receiving threats, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, at 27% and 25% target share. Even Ekeler is further down at 16%.
• Puka Nacus has lined up in the slot 31%, at WR1 30% and WR2 32%. He dominates the team target share at 40% (41% in Week 1, 38% in Week 2). The next closest is Tutu Atwell at 19%
• Both of the leaders in the Raiders target share, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, are questionable for Week 3 with a concussion.
• Raheem Mostert controls 73% of the Dolphins running back snaps. Salvon Ahmed is next at 24%, and he is questionable (groin) for Week 3.
• Jordan Addison is currently 4th in team target share behind Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and K.J. Osborn.
• Rhamondre Stevenson has a 57% to 26% edge on Ezekiel Elliott for team carry percentage.
• Both of New Orlean's starting running backs are questionable with hamstring injuries. That leaves Tony Jones as the only option in the backfield.
• If Saquon Barkley is indeed out for Week 3 (ankle), the next best rusher might be Daniel Jones, who controls 40% of the team's carry share.
• Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall each had 27% of the team's carry share last week. Trends show Hall moving up, but so far, it's nearly a 50/50 split between each other.
• Dallas Goedert's team target share went from 3% in Week 1 to 32% in Week 2.
• Snap share between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren is 55% to 41% in favor of Harris. The carry percentage is 48% to 29% in favor of Harris. This hasn't changed much at all week-to-week.
• Ken Walker III has controlled the carry share 68% to 16% over Zach Charbonnet so far. This is Walker's backfield, at least for now.
• Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle make up the majority of the 49ers team target share. If Aiyuk misses time or is ineffective, look for Jauan Jennings to see increased targets.
• Rachaad White has a 50% to 24% carry share advantage over Sean Tucker, but Tucker increased from 15% in Week 1 to 24% in Week 2.
• DeAndre Hopkins is one of 12 players with a team target share of 30+ this season.
• Brian Robinson is dominating Antonio Gibson in carry share percentage at 78% to 9%. Gibson does run more routes than Robinson at 49% vs. 39%.

IT'S TIME TO FINE-TUNE

If you started 0-2 or 1-1, it's not too late to turn things around. Sometimes, one player in your lineup with a big game can make the difference between a win and a loss. There are plenty of players who have yet to have a big week, and some are probably on your roster. Make the right waiver picks and lineup decisions, and don't be afraid to make a trade that could change your season for the better if he hits. Sometimes, you have to overpay for the player you want, but if it works for your lineup, I say do it.

Thanks for reading. Questions or comments, hit me up on X, formerly Twitter.

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