It’s hard to believe that the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several key drafts to complete in the next few days. This year, I published my first set of full projections at the end of February, which means I’ve been forecasting this season for over six months. Much can change in six months; that’s like a decade in NFL parlance. So, before you finish the draft season, I wanted to share with you the players who have changed my mind and why.
Links to all four positions: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
The Tight Ends Who Changed My Mind (Sorted by Consensus ADP)
- Darren Waller, New York Giants
- Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo
- Greg Dulcich, Denver
- Luke Musgrave, Green Bay
- Jake Ferguson, Dallas
- Trey McBride, Arizona
- Jelani Woods, Indianapolis
- Cole Turner, Washington
Darren Waller (ADP: TE5) Could Be TE1
What I Thought: Coming off a disappointing season, Waller found a new lease on life in New York and seemed poised for enough work to fit comfortably into the bottom half of the TE1 tier—somewhere between TE6 and TE12. The Giants' pass volume and Daniel Jones' inefficiency would cap his upside.
What I Think: No player has risen up my board more this year, aside from injury risers who stepped into new roles due to depth chart shifts. Waller could very well be the No. 1 fantasy tight end. I'm now leaning toward him as the favorite to finish as TE2 behind Travis Kelce over the likes of Mark Andrews, George Kittle, and T.J. Hockenson. Waller wasn't only the best player in Giants camp; many national observers dubbed him the best player they saw on any team during their camp tours. If he stays healthy, he'll be the Giants' de facto WR1 and should have the target volume to put up monster fantasy numbers.
Dalton Kincaid (ADP: TE12) Can Buck the Historical Trends
What I Thought: Most of the NFL’s all-time best tight ends struggled for fantasy relevance as rookies. Those who bucked the trend were usually the alpha targets due to a weak wide receiver corps. Kincaid has All-Pro potential, but he’s stepping into a veteran lineup that’s already producing elite numbers and has an alpha receiver in Stefon Diggs. Kincaid’s ADP would likely lead to disappointment.
What I Think: Kincaid isn't really a tight end, at least in terms of the Bills' plans for him in 2023. He's going to be an oversized wide receiver and is competing against the wildly inconsistent Gabe Davis and middling veterans Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield. Josh Allen is desperate for another playmaker, and Kincaid looked the part almost from the first snap of camp. While I still think Kincaid will push for a top-5 finish at his position, the bar for top-12 numbers is fairly low, and he can be in the conversation.
Greg Dulcich (ADP: TE16) Isn’t a No-Brainer Breakout Option
What I Thought: With Sean Payton’s arrival and his historical penchant for using tight ends in the passing game, Dulcich seemed primed for a Year Two breakthrough and potential fantasy stardom.
What I Think: Adam Trautman will be on the field a lot because Payton trusts him as both a pass protector and an outlet receiver in the flat. While Dulcich still has big-play potential, his snap share is unlikely to be consistent enough to warrant regular inclusion in your lineup.
Luke Musgrave (ADP: TE25) Is Ready for Prime Time
What I Thought: Some draft scouts believe the 2023 tight end draft class is the best in history. While it will take a few years to determine whether the hype was warranted, it's certain that the rookie crop would be overvalued in redraft leagues. Making an impact as a rookie tight end is exceedingly difficult, and Musgrave wasn't even guaranteed snaps, as the Packers added another rookie, Tucker Kraft, whom some draftniks liked better.
What I Think: Musgrave went out and won the job, proving to be the best player in his position group from the first practice. You won't find many beat writers with anything negative to say about the rookie, from his work ethic to his ability to grasp blocking schemes, to his route-running, to his instant rapport with Jordan Love. In leagues where you draft two or more tight ends and like to wait until the end for your second dart throw, Musgrave's upside warrants consideration.
Jake Ferguson (ADP: TE28) Is Worth a Late-Round Draft Throw
What I Thought: Dalton Schultz was a good-but-not-great fantasy tight end and never the focal point. He was more talented and pedigreed than Ferguson. With Dallas' receiving corps improving, Ferguson would see fewer snaps than Schultz in his prime seasons.
What I Think: Rookie second-rounder Luke Schoonmaker missed much of camp and is too far behind to vie for snaps, and Peyton Hendershot didn’t look much better this summer. Ferguson was by far the best tight end on the roster and should be involved in all passing-game snaps based on preseason usage and camp reports. Over the last five years, the TE12 has averaged 57 receptions for 659 yards and four touchdowns. Those are achievable numbers for Ferguson but likely represent his ceiling.
Trey McBride (ADP: TE30) Is NOT a Deep Sleeper
What I Thought: McBride was the best tight end in the 2022 draft class, and his lackluster rookie year would ensure a lower ADP. Yet, the rebuilding Cardinals were likely to cut or de-emphasize Zach Ertz, paving the way for McBride to make a significant Year Two leap.
What I Think: The Cardinals are an absolute mess, with either Clayton Tune or Josh Dobbs under center for at least a month and rumors that Kyler Murray may not play at all this year. Despite the roster upheaval, Ertz remains a key part of the offense. McBride belongs on the waiver-wire watch list and should go undrafted in all but the deepest redraft leagues.
Jelani Woods (ADP: TE34) Is Damaged Goods
What I Thought: Keep in mind, my initial projections went live in February, so in that context, we didn’t know who would quarterback the Colts, only that it would likely be a rookie. Woods is an off-the-charts athlete who showed potential in limited snaps last year. In that context, I thought he could be a de facto WR2 or WR3 in a potentially pass-happy offense.
What I Think: While the Colts are starting a rookie quarterback in Anthony Richardson, he isn’t expected to throw much in Year One. The offense will be run-heavy, relying on Richardson’s athleticism much in the same way Justin Fields, Josh Allen, and Cam Newton did early in their careers. On top of that, Woods tore a hamstring and is now on injured reserve.
Cole Turner (ADP: TE37) Is a Name To Know
What I Thought: The Commanders had one of the league’s worst tight end rooms, and veteran Logan Thomas would be the starter by default. Turner played only 245 snaps last year, often sitting in favor of Thomas and John Bates, who is an excellent blocker.
What I Think: Thomas again missed much of the summer and has been fantasy-relevant only once in eight seasons. He'll still be the nominal starter, but with Eric Bieniemy calling the plays, Washington is likely to value Turner’s natural receiving skills far more than the prior regime did. Turner is a roll of the dice, but he looked good in the preseason as the starter. If rational coaching prevails, he should be on the field more often than Thomas or John Bates.