It’s hard to believe that the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several key drafts to complete in the next few days. This year, I published my first set of full projections at the end of February, which means I’ve been forecasting this season for over six months. Much can change in six months; that’s like a decade in NFL parlance. So, before you finish the draft season, I wanted to share with you the players who have changed my mind and why.
Links to all four positions: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
The Wide Receivers Who Changed My Mind (Sorted by Consensus ADP)
- Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati
- Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
- Deebo Samuel, San Francisco
- Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
- Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville
- Tyler Lockett, Seattle
- Marquise Brown, Arizona
- George Pickens, Pittsburgh
- Jahan Dotson, Washington
- Jordan Addison, Minnesota
- Brandin Cooks, Dallas
- Courtland Sutton, Denver
- Michael Thomas, New Orleans
- Rashod Bateman, Baltimore
- Darnell Mooney, Chicago
- Parris Campbell, New York Giants
Ja'Marr Chase (ADP: WR2) Deserves His ADP
What I Thought: I had Chase in the elite tier like everyone else. However, I projected him slightly below the consensus at WR5 due to concerns about negative touchdown regression and the possibility that Tee Higgins and Chase would end the year with closer numbers than most anticipated.
What I Think: Higgins is an excellent player, but the gap in per-game metrics is remarkable: Chase ranked as WR3 while Higgins plummeted to WR29. After reviewing the film and the per-game statistics, it's difficult to argue that we've seen the best from Chase or should expect significant regression. He’s earned the right to be the second receiver off the board, particularly with Cooper Kupp’s hamstring injury.
Continue reading this content with a PRO subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football
only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE