It’s hard to believe that the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several key drafts to complete in the next few days. This year, I published my first set of full projections at the end of February, which means I’ve been forecasting this season for over six months. Much can change in six months; that’s like a decade in NFL parlance. So, before you finish the draft season, I wanted to share with you the players who have changed my mind and why.
Links to all four positions: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
The Wide Receivers Who Changed My Mind (Sorted by Consensus ADP)
- Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati
- Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
- Deebo Samuel, San Francisco
- Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
- Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville
- Tyler Lockett, Seattle
- Marquise Brown, Arizona
- George Pickens, Pittsburgh
- Jahan Dotson, Washington
- Jordan Addison, Minnesota
- Brandin Cooks, Dallas
- Courtland Sutton, Denver
- Michael Thomas, New Orleans
- Rashod Bateman, Baltimore
- Darnell Mooney, Chicago
- Parris Campbell, New York Giants
Ja'Marr Chase (ADP: WR2) Deserves His ADP
What I Thought: I had Chase in the elite tier like everyone else. However, I projected him slightly below the consensus at WR5 due to concerns about negative touchdown regression and the possibility that Tee Higgins and Chase would end the year with closer numbers than most anticipated.
What I Think: Higgins is an excellent player, but the gap in per-game metrics is remarkable: Chase ranked as WR3 while Higgins plummeted to WR29. After reviewing the film and the per-game statistics, it's difficult to argue that we've seen the best from Chase or should expect significant regression. He’s earned the right to be the second receiver off the board, particularly with Cooper Kupp’s hamstring injury.
Garrett Wilson (ADP: WR10) Has No. 1 Overall Potential
What I Thought: I aligned closely with industry consensus, viewing Wilson as a lower-end WR1 with upside depending on how the Aaron Rodgers situation unfolded. However, I didn't see Wilson as a must-target at his ADP, given Rodgers' unpredictable target preferences and his potential to favor Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb due to familiarity.
What I Think: Any doubts that Wilson would win Rodgers' favor and secure his status as the Jets' No. 1 target were dispelled this summer. Rodgers repeatedly endorsed Wilson as a special player on "Hard Knocks," and 11-on-11 camp target data further solidifies Wilson as the alpha receiver. With as much upside as any other receiver, Wilson could join the elite tier if the Jets' offensive line keeps Rodgers upright.
Deebo Samuel (ADP: WR16) Could Disappoint
What I Thought: Samuel’s WR28 finish was a byproduct of several nagging injuries and the transition at quarterback, but his talent and ability to dominate as a receiver and runner would keep him at the forefront of the 49ers’ game plan.
What I Think: Samuel only played 13 games, but his fantasy rank on a per-game basis wasn’t any better (WR27), and he struggled once Brock Purdy took over. Moreover, the arrival of Christian McCaffrey reduces Samuel's necessity as a part-time tailback. Samuel has ended up outside the Top 20 in three of his four seasons, with his standout year featuring an unsustainable eight touchdowns on 59 rushing attempts. He's a strong fade at his current ADP.
Keenan Allen (ADP: WR18) Has Aged Like Fine Wine
What I Thought: Allen has enjoyed a storied career, but at 31 and coming off an injury-plagued season, I feared he might be overshadowed by Mike Williams, Joshua Palmer, and rookie Quentin Johnston.
What I Think: While many aging veterans use injuries as an excuse to skip camp practices, Allen took the opposite approach. But the veteran star didn’t take the easy way out and participated throughout the summer to rebuild rapport with Justin Herbert and master the nuances of Kellen Moore’s playbook. Furthermore, rookie Johnston did little to stake a claim for early playing time, ensuring Allen will be the lead target for at least another season.
Calvin Ridley (ADP: WR19) Is Back in Business
What I Thought: I was open to the idea of Ridley being a top-25 receiver but wanted to see him excel in training camp before committing. Despite his talent, Ridley had only one season as a fantasy No. 1 (2020) and hadn't played an NFL snap in almost two years. The Jaguars already had established targets in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram.
What I Think: Training camp was a chance for Ridley to showcase his skill set with renewed vigor, and he answered the call. While the incumbent targets aren’t going away, Ridley routinely looked like the best receiver on the roster and the only one capable of being a true alpha if he can get a high enough target share. I wouldn't go all-in expecting a top-12 season, but it's within the realm of possibility, and his floor is higher than initially anticipated.
Tyler Lockett (ADP: WR28) Remains the Man
What I Thought: Lockett turns 31 years old in September, and the Seahawks added Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the draft, who I view as the No. 1 receiver in the class and a future fantasy star. While Lockett wouldn’t be irrelevant, I expected Smith-Njigba’s arrival to eat into his targets meaningfully.
What I Think: Smith-Njigba did nothing this summer to erode our confidence in his long-term potential, but he enters the regular season with a surgically repaired wrist. Furthermore, Lockett and DK Metcalf’s spots as the top two receivers, those on the field in 2-WR formations, never wavered in team drills. And last but not least, Lockett has been a better fantasy receiver than Metcalf in 2021 and 2022. It's just as likely that Smith-Njigba's arrival will affect Metcalf more, making Lockett a priority target in drafts due to his undervalued ADP.
Marquise Brown (ADP: WR34) Is a Fade
What I Thought: Marquise Brown was the No. 8 fantasy receiver through the first six games last year when he and Kyler Murray were in the lineup together. Assuming Murray’s recovery from the ACL tear only kept him out a few weeks, Brown was going to push for top-15 honors.
What I Think: Murray's return timeline remains unclear, and the Cardinals seem intent on tanking this season to aim for either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in the draft. If Murray opts not to play at all in 2023, Brown would be left catching passes from either Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune. That makes Brown far too risky to draft as anything more than a low-end WR3.
George Pickens (ADP: WR35) Has Top-25 Upside
What I Thought: The Steelers passing attack was so ineffective last year, yet quarterback Kenny Pickett and offensive coordinator Matt Canada returned. Pickens’ upside is tied to his ability to win on the outside, and most of the team’s attack would be limited to inefficient passes at or near the line of scrimmage.
What I Think: First, I sold Pickens’ rookie season short. He ranked WR35, but that was because he only caught four touchdowns to go along with a more than respectable 52 receptions for 801 yards. He averaged 15.4 yards per reception and accounted for 33% of the team’s receiving scores. If Pickett's regular-season performance matches his preseason form, Pickens could easily elevate from a low-end WR3 to a solid WR2, given even a slight uptick in touchdown catches.
Jahan Dotson (ADP: WR36) Could Be a No. 1 Receiver
What I Thought: Dotson ranked WR42 on a per-game basis in 2022 despite catching seven touchdowns. Even with an improved target share in Year Two, some touchdown regression would be a negative offset to increased receptions and yards. With Terry McLaurin as the alpha and uncertain quarterbacking, Dotson was part of a nebulous group of WR3-WR4 types coming off the board in the middle of drafts.
What I Think: Things are looking up for Dotson. McLaurin is struggling with turf toe, Sam Howell has been better than expected, and Dotson had a dominant camp. If the Commanders’ offensive line can gel, Dotson should exceed ADP with or without a healthy McLaurin. But if McLaurin’s injury persists, Dotson has top-20 upside.
Jordan Addison (ADP: WR38) May Need More Seasoning
What I Thought: As a fan of early-round rookies, I was optimistic about Jordan Addison, especially since the Vikings needed a new No. 2 receiver opposite Justin Jefferson. Addison dominated in two different college offenses (Pittsburgh and USC), lending credence to his ability to adjust to any NFL playbook. With a passing offense that has a 4,000-yard, 30-touchdown baseline, Addison could be the best rookie receiver, even if Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s long-term potential is higher.
What I Think: Addison's upside remains, but he had a quiet summer, leaving his role in the offense unclear. Veteran K.J. Osborn isn't ceding the No. 2 spot without a fight, and newly extended tight end T.J. Hockenson will also demand a heavy target share. Addison is not a redraft priority at this stage.
Brandin Cooks (ADP: WR39) Is Going to Break His Own Record
What I Thought: Cooks had been a go-to value pick for years, but I thought that streak would end as he transitioned to a supporting role in Dallas, competing for targets with CeeDee Lamb and a healthy Michael Gallup.
What I Think: In my best Al Pacino voice, “he’s pulled me back in!” Cooks is tied with Brandon Marshall as the only receivers with 1,000-yard seasons for four different franchises, and I’m now betting Cooks sets the new record with a 1,000-yard campaign for Dallas. He found instant chemistry with Dak Prescott and will be in 2-WR sets while Gallup happily accepts a role as the complementary No. 3.
Courtland Sutton (ADP: WR42) Gets Another Shot at Stardom
What I Thought: With just one top-40 fantasy season in five years—finishing as WR18 in 2019—Sutton's stock was low, particularly given his injury history. The arrival of a new coaching staff led by Sean Payton, who brought in trusted receivers, made Sutton's future even murkier. A trade seemed to be the only way to make him draftable.
What I Think: Things have played out well for the veteran. Most importantly, he had a healthy camp and preseason. And while he was on the field practicing, half of the presumptive receiving corps, including Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler, went down. While Jerry Jeudy remains the more talented player, he’s hurt already. Sutton’s playing time appears safe, regardless of Jeudy’s status.
Michael Thomas (ADP: WR43) May Actually Be Back This Time
What I Thought: Michael Thomas was the No. 1 fantasy receiver in 2019, which was also his fourth consecutive top-10 finish. He finished 102nd, unranked, and 111th in the three years since. It seemed likely the Saints would consider moving on from the veteran, and if he stuck on the roster, it would be as a part-time contributor.
What I Think: Am I being lured back into the snake pit by the cobra’s hypnotic movements? Thomas’ risk can’t be understated, but he enjoyed a quiet, productive summer. He enters the season as a starter alongside Chris Olave, and all parties – Thomas, the coaches, and the front office – are painting an optimistic picture. We can’t forget how dominant Thomas was when healthy. If there's even a 50% chance he plays 14 or more games, Thomas will massively outperform his ADP.
Rashod Bateman (ADP: WR53) Isn’t the Clear No. 1
What I Thought: New offensive coordinator Todd Monken would unlock the Ravens’ potential, as Lamar Jackson was happy and healthy after signing a massive contract. Rashod Bateman would be the beneficiary of the revamp, as Odell Beckham cannot stay healthy, and rookie Zay Flowers would need to wait for a Beckham injury to matter.
What I Think: Bateman returned from the PUP list but has failed to generate significant buzz. With Mark Andrews still the de facto WR1 and Beckham and rookie Zay Flowers stealing the spotlight in camp, it's best to temper expectations for Bateman until he proves himself during the regular season.
Darnell Mooney (ADP: WR57) Will Be a Factor
What I Thought: The Bears offense is going to be balanced, and the passing volume won’t sustain multiple fantasy receivers. With DJ Moore arriving via trade and tight end Cole Kmet signed to a new contract, not to mention Chase Claypool’s presence, Mooney seemed like the forgotten man.
What I Think: I’m still not sure the Bears will throw enough for Mooney to matter in 12-team fantasy leagues, but this summer served as a reminder of how talented Mooney is in his own right. The talent gap between Mooney and Moore is tighter than I allowed for in my early projections, and now I think the more likely scenario is both Moore and Mooney have their fair share of targets. Consider this as much a warning for Moore’s value as it is an endorsement of Mooney’s.
Parris Campbell (ADP: WR78) Could Be a Winning Lottery Ticket
What I Thought: The Giants receiving corps entering camp was loaded with slot-receiver types, and no one capable of being an alpha receiver over a full season. Campbell, while talented, is the living embodiment of injury-prone and would find it difficult to crack the lineup, particularly if Wan’Dale Robinson is healthy.
What I Think: Raise your hand if you knew Campbell played all 17 games last season? After missing 34 games in three seasons, Campbell quietly played all 17 last year for a terrible Colts team. The dysfunction in Indianapolis overshadowed Campbell’s renaissance, but it removes much of the fear he’s incapable of being a regular contributor. Of equal import is how well Campbell played this summer, and he exits the preseason as one of the clear-cut starters along with Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins. Campbell is light years more talented than his fellow starters and now has an opportunity to become Daniel Jones’ second-favorite target behind tight end Darren Waller. At Campbell’s ADP, he’s a free lottery ticket you can roster at the tail end of your draft.