It’s hard to believe that the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several key drafts to complete in the next few days. This year, I published my first set of full projections at the end of February, which means I’ve been forecasting this season for over six months. Much can change in six months; that’s like a decade in NFL parlance. So, before you finish the draft season, I wanted to share with you the players who have changed my mind and why.
Links to all four positions: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
The Quarterbacks Who Changed My Mind (Sorted by Consensus ADP)
- Dak Prescott, Dallas
- Russell Wilson, Denver
- Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh
- Jordan Love, Green Bay
- Brock Purdy, San Francisco
- Kyler Murray, Arizona
- Sam Howell, Washington
- Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee
Dak Prescott (ADP: QB10) Won’t Be Elite, But He’ll Be Fine
What I Thought: Prescott led the NFL in interceptions last year and lost Kellen Moore as a play-caller in favor of head coach Mike McCarthy, who seemingly lost his mojo years ago in his final years in Green Bay. McCarthy's rhetoric argued for a run-heavy, methodical, predictable approach that would lead Dallas' offense from its top-5 perch to the middle of the pack. I had Prescott ranked as QB16, ensuring someone else would draft him.
What I Think: I'm still confident McCarthy won't reach the heights that Moore did with the offense, but I've softened my stance thanks to a confluence of positive developments. One, the offensive line looks much better, with Tyron Smith healthy and Zack Martin happy. Two, the receiving corps was exemplary in the preseason with Brandin Cooks stepping into the starting lineup, Michael Gallup healthy, and enthusiastically embracing the No. 3 role, and last year's rookie dud Jalen Tolbert flipping the switch. I still don’t view Prescott as an elite fantasy option, but I think you can comfortably project him as a low-end QB1 and a high-priority QB2 in Superflex leagues.
Russell Wilson (ADP: QB18) May Cook, But Not At a Michelin-Star Restaurant
What I Thought: Last season’s Denver debacle is well understood, but fantasy managers overreacted, presenting a value opportunity as Russell Wilson bounces back under the savvy eye of head coach Sean Payton. The Broncos’ receiving corps had depth, and Payton’s imaginative play-calling would return Wilson to fringe QB1 status, at worst.
What I Think: My assumptions unraveled as I pulled at the strings. One, Payton’s resume without Drew Brees is in question. Two, Javonte Williams is healthy, and Denver is going to be run-heavy. Three, the vaunted receiver depth was decimated with Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler gone, and star Jerry Jeudy already banged up. While I still don’t think Wilson will be as bad as he was in 2022, he’s now toward the end of the QB2 tier in Superflex drafts.
Kenny Pickett (ADP: QB20) Might Be a Good Quarterback
What I Thought: The Steelers' offense was a complete fade as Kenny Pickett showed last year that he’s among the NFL's worst starters, and Pittsburgh was going to be stuck in purgatory for another season until they could fire coordinator Matt Canada and move on from Pickett. Pickett only threw seven touchdowns, and his 1.8% touchdown rate is among the worst in NFL history for someone with 300-plus attempts.
What I Think: We're still not out of the woods because the list of rookie starters with a sub-2.0% touchdown rate (since 1995) is damning: Trevor Lawrence, Sam Bradford, Joey Harrington, Cleo Lemon, David Carr, Chris Weinke, Tony Banks, Drew Bledsoe, and Trent Dilfer. Outside of Lawrence, it’s a discouraging comp group. However, Pickett executed the offense well in camp and the preseason, and the team has a ton of dynamic receivers. Mike Tomlin doesn't have losing seasons, and the Steelers' offensive line is much improved on paper. I'm uncomfortable endorsing Pickett as a fantasy asset in his own right, but I'm hopeful he can distribute the ball effectively to keep Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth valuable.
Jordan Love (ADP: QB22) Could Keep the Packers Rolling
What I Thought: Aaron Rodgers won two of the last three MVP awards and is now a Jet. The Packers would commit to Jordan Love, understanding that they could draft their new cornerstone in a QB-heavy 2024 draft class if things fell apart. Love was far too unproven, and his college tape too concerning, to factor into redraft plans, even in Superflex leagues.
What I Think: We still don’t have live game data to build confidence, but the drumbeats from Packers camp were undeniably positive. This isn’t a team built for a rebuild; they clearly believe they are still a Super Bowl contender. Love’s range of outcomes is wide, but I've started to warm up to the idea that GM Brian Gutekunst and head coach Matt LaFleur had a plan they believe in. The roster has plenty of talent at the skill positions, and Love may not be a fantasy star in his own right, but he'll be effective enough managing the scheme to keep Christian Watson, Aaron Jones, and others relevant.
Brock Purdy (ADP: QB23) Is The Unquestioned No. 1
What I Thought: What Brock Purdy did last year is the stuff of legend, but his future remains uncertain because of the UCL injury and coach Shanahan’s penchant for plug-and-play quarterbacking.
What I Think: Purdy is the unquestioned QB1 in San Francisco. He returned from his injury quickly and was able to participate in camp and the preseason. And the front office traded Trey Lance to Dallas for a conditional draft pick. While I no longer doubt Purdy’s status with the 49ers, this is NOT an endorsement of his fantasy prospects. Given the team's run-heavy approach and Purdy’s lack of mobility, I still see a difficult path to fantasy stardom.
Kyler Murray’s (ADP: QB24) Status Is Uncertain Beyond His ACL Recovery
What I Thought: We all knew Kyler Murray's recovery from a torn ACL was likely to extend into the regular season, but the organization and Murray spoke positively about his timely return. While the Cardinals are rebuilding, Murray's multi-dimensional skill set still warranted attention as your QB2, who could turn into your every-week starter in the second half of the season.
What I Think: Technically, my initial outlook is still within the range of possible outcomes, but the vibes have taken a turn for the worse. Arizona has taken a bad roster and made it worse this preseason by trading away quality pieces to save money. It’s also setting up a battle between Josh Dobbs and Clayton Tune to start in Murray's place. The only reason teams gut their roster is to position for a high draft pick, which in turn can be used on someone like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. If you're Murray, why rush back to play for a team that clearly is readying for your replacement?
Sam Howell (ADP: QB26) Is a Viable Fantasy QB2, At Worst
What I Thought: Washington was embarking on a multi-year rebuilding project that would culminate in a new face of the franchise in 2024. Howell and Jacoby Brissett were expected to ping-pong in and out of the lineup because neither could effectively execute Eric Bieniemy's playbook.
What I Think: I still believe Howell is on a short leash beyond 2023, as Harris will likely be tempted to replace the entire coaching staff next year, and bringing in a new franchise quarterback would make sense. However, I've become more optimistic that Howell will make that decision difficult for the new personnel department after spending a season as the Commanders' on-field leader. Howell started camp with a few weeks of up-and-down practices but rounded into form in the final weeks. His mobility is the fantasy elixir; if he runs as much as I expect, he could post middling passing numbers and remain fantasy-relevant, even in single-quarterback leagues.
Ryan Tannehill (ADP: QB31) Gets One More Year to Make a Playoff Push
What I Thought: The Titans' title window—such as it was—was closing, and the team seemed committed to rebuilding. Tannehill's hefty contract, combined with the drafting of Will Levis, all but assured that Tannehill's time in Tennessee was over.
What I Think: Tennessee still believes they're in a title window. Not only are they continuing to build around an aging (but effective) Derrick Henry, but they also retained Tannehill without forcing him to redo his contract. Neither Malik Willis nor Will Levis did anything over the summer to credibly challenge the veteran. The trade for DeAndre Hopkins adds to the calculus; you don't acquire a high-volume receiver at his age unless you believe a playoff run is ahead.