Running back is the most difficult position to project beyond one season. While injury is a concern for all players, it’s undeniable that the running backs take the most damage. They average the lowest salaries of any position excluding special teams, which makes them easily replaceable. The NFL’s recent shift to the two-back system has made running back projections doubly bleak. While we’re now able to find value later in our drafts due to the number of productive backs, we’re also more likely to get duped by seemingly enticing situations.
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Here are the top five running backs you should worry about.
5. Rashaad Penny, Philadelphia
Rashaad Penny’s profile begins with the low-hanging fruit. While “injury prone” is a term often overutilized when referring to players, Penny’s career may lend credence to keeping the term around. He’s been active for just over 50% of the games played since being drafted by the Seahawks in the first round of the 2018 draft. He’s suffered from a fractured finger, multiple torn hamstrings, multiple knee strains, a torn ACL, and a fractured leg. When healthy, though, Penny showed he was deserving of his No. 27 selection. In 2022 Penny rushed for 346 yards and two touchdowns on just 57 carries. He averaged 3.1 yards after contact per attempt, which would’ve been top in the league had he qualified for the cutoff on attempts. In 2022 He played 69% of the snaps in three of his five games active, even with the talented rookie Kenneth Walker waiting in the wing. With the departure of Miles Sanders via free agency, the Philadelphia Eagles signed Penny to a one-year, $1M contract. While he is currently considered the starter in one of the league’s best offenses, his salary does him no favors in guaranteeing opportunity.
For reference, Kenneth Gainwell, who was a fifth-round selection and is currently considered Penny’s backup, is making nearly $1M himself. Gainwell has also been productive for Philadelphia in his two years with the team. Most notably, his 12 rushes for 112 yards and a touchdown in the divisional round of last year’s Super Bowl run. Gainwell isn’t the only incumbent Penny will have to fend off, either. Boston Scott has spent five years with the team and is the highest-paid back of the bunch. He reached an agreement on a one-year, $1.8M deal to return this season. Last year Sanders was considered the starter but played over 60% of the snaps just five times. In the last five games, including the postseason, Sanders did not handle more than 40% of the snaps a single time. He handled fewer snaps than Gainwell in each of the last two games when it mattered most. Penny’s advanced metrics are eye-popping when healthy, and you could paint a picture that his injuries have been extremely unlucky, but he’s still got a difficult backfield situation on a short contract with a very low salary to contend with. He will be 28 years old when he enters free agency next season.
4. Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers
Austin Ekeler is a difficult situation to get a handle on as he is one of fantasy football’s most productive backs. He will be 28 entering the 2023 season and has been permitted to seek a trade by the LA Chargers. He has played six seasons with the team and has been their lead back since the departure of Melvin Gordon. Last season Ekeler finished with just under 1,000 rushing yards to go along with a whopping 107 receptions and 18 total touchdowns. Hanging our hats on touchdown production is typically frowned upon, but Ekeler has scored 38 times in the past two seasons. He and his representation have been seeking a long-term contract, to no avail. He has had permission to speak with teams for months now but has not generated much buzz before the draft.
There is potential for a team to reach out about a trade once the draft is complete, but it’s unlikely. Ekeler is likely to play out the final year of his contract with the Chargers and enter free agency at 29 years old. He has already passed the age at which most elite backs tail off. He’s now playing with borrowed time. The thing that makes it so difficult to avoid Ekeler’s situation is that he will be one of the most productive backs in fantasy once again this season. If he were an affordable option in Dynasty, he would be worth trading for in hopes to get one push at a title, but he is still valued by many to be a premium back. Our consensus rankings have Ekeler ranked 26th overall, even with the strong possibility that he is not in a featured role with another team next season. This is two spots ahead of Jahmyr Gibbs who I’d much prefer at this point in their respective careers. The Chargers are ironically in a prime position to draft Gibbs with their 21st overall pick should they feel the need to sure up the position for the future.
3. Joe Mixon, Cincinnati
Joe Mixon has faced multiple legal issues over the last year. The details of those incidents have no place in this piece beyond mentioning they exist. For the legal jargon behind those concerns feel free to read the opinion of our Drew Davenport. Mixon’s long-term concerns were evident independent of his off-field concerns. In 2022 Mixon handled the fewest carries through at least 14 games since his rookie season. He rushed for less than 1,000 yards for the first time since his rookie year, sans his injured 2020. Through his final eight active games, he only played over 60% of the snaps once. By the end of the season, Samaje Perine was playing on crucial downs. Even two seasons ago in the Super Bowl, Perine was in the lineup on the most important play of the decade for Cincinnati. He allegedly ran the screen to the wrong side, but he was the back they trusted nonetheless.
Rumors were swirling about potentially trading Mixon before his off-field incidents this spring. Recently there have been talks of cutting him outright before the 2023 season. The Bengals could save $10M by doing so. The problem with his long-term outlook is two-fold. First, he will be 27 before 2023 kicks off. Secondly, he was already struggling to maintain control of his backfield with Perine as his only competition. He’s currently on one of the most productive offenses in the NFL. If he leaves the Bengals he is very likely to find himself in a worse situation. There aren’t many scenarios in which Mixon pays off at his current value even this year, let alone during his age-28 season. We’ve done a good job of dropping him down to RB34 already, but by this time next season, he could be struggling to find his way into the top 50.
2. Tony Pollard, Dallas
Tony Pollard has been a fantasy favorite for the last two seasons. He’s been electric every time he’s been featured, yet he’s been forced to play second fiddle to Ezekiel Elliott, most likely due to the egregious amount of money the Cowboys owed him. Now Elliott has been released, which has elevated expectations for Pollard. Pollard has been franchise tagged, leaving his future outlook in question but giving him a huge opportunity this season. He will be turning 26 on day two of the 2023 draft. Over his last two seasons, Pollard has seen over 60% of the snaps just twice. In each game he totaled over 100 yards from scrimmage, even reaching 189 in Week 10. Many question the reasoning behind his failure to overtake the backfield given how impressive he seems to be. Elliott’s salary is the most likely culprit. If that’s the case, Pollard could have a remarkable season on the tag, then earn a massive contract next season.
The problem with that scenario is just how rarely backs gain value with their second organization. Even if their per-touch metrics remain similar, their value tends to decline as they typically see fewer opportunities. There are so many variables at play for a running back to make good on their value; especially when changing teams. Similarly to Mixon, Pollard is already in one of the best situations he could find himself in. If he were in the Cowboy’s long-term plans they could’ve signed him to a deal, potentially cheaper than the tag. Pollard’s situation is eerily reminiscent of Tevin Coleman’s after he exited the shadow of Devonta Freeman. Coleman’s value in that first season as a starter skyrocketed on the potential of what he could do if featured. In Pollard’s case, he probably will be impressive in 2023, but that still may not be enough to make him worth his top 50 ranking come 2024. Pollard, as with most backs, is likely to find himself in a timeshare next season. Considering how productive the Cowboys are in the run game, it is unlikely he finds himself in a better scenario with a new team. Should those two likelihoods hold, Pollard will not be the RB14 for any significant duration.
1. Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta
Tyler Allgeier was one of the shining successes from the 2022 draft. He was selected in the fifth round with the 151st pick by the Atlanta Falcons. He started seven games and finished the season with 1,035 yards rushing. This while sharing a backfield with Cordarrelle Patterson, who managed 695 yards through 13 games himself. Patterson just turned 32 but is under contract through 2024. He likely takes a back seat to Allgeier at some point, but last season the split remained consistent. Allgeier handled over 60% of the backfield touches just once when Patterson was active. In that game, he handled 24 carriers for 135 yards. With all things considered, Allgeier is a 23-year-old back, coming off a 1000-yard rookie campaign on a run-first offense, and is expected to get a workload boost. On top of those factors, he’s still only the RB33. So what makes him the riskiest running back situation?
Each time a late-round running back finds success, the fantasy community insists they will not be replaced, all while the actual NFL works diligently to replace them. The list of running backs drafted later than the 4th round that have had multiple successful seasons is quite short compared to the list of those who have not. Look no further than the 2023 odds on favorite for Atlanta at pick No. 8. The books have Bijan Robinson as the most likely addition to the Falcons' roster. Given his draft capital, it’s not likely Allgeier gets the opportunity to repeat in 2023. If he does, it will be a constant battle to maintain relevance each season from there on. He’s a talented player who crushed expectations in year one. There are outliers for everything, and perhaps Allgeier can be the late-round back to hold relevance through his rookie contract, but history is not on his side.
Isiah Pacheco and Khalil Herbert also meet the criteria for late-round running backs who have an uphill battle from here on to maintain their dynasty value despite their enticing near-term roles.