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I'm a projections guy. Every offseason, I build out projections for the upcoming season to see who has an immediate path to fantasy upside. It can be an extremely helpful exercise, not just for the results but for the process that it forces the projector to follow. The act of building projections can lead you to identify players and situations with ambiguous upside or clear pathways to volume.
Fortunately, I get to build projections during the season too! While I've added some shortcuts to speed up my process, I basically have to tear down last week's projections and rebuild them with the news and notes from the current week. While this can be a bit tedious, it forces me to go back through every data point from every team across the league to identify emerging trends. This article looks at some of the most interesting developments around the NFL.
Routes run and dropback data in this article is from Pro Football Focus. I prefer to focus on the percentage of routes run, simply a player's routes divided by the team's total dropbacks. Terms: RMS = Rushing Market Share, TMS = Target Market Share, RR% = Routes Run percentage (of dropbacks)
Running Back Rotations
- Arizona Cardinals: Hard to extrapolate much from this game as the Cardinals were drug by the Chiefs. However, James Conner maintains a monster workload that includes an encouraging 61 percent RR% before being pulled in the fourth quarter so that Trace McSorley could lead the backups. Eno Benjamin was declared the clear number two option as Darrel Williams did not play a snap.
- Atlanta Falcons: Damien Williams got the start in what looked like a timeshare between he and Cordarrelle Patterson before Williams suffered an injury in the first quarter. Off-season rookie hype train leader Tyler Allgeier was declared inactive in this contest but that could change in future weeks if Damien Williams misses an extended period of time. However, Avery Williams looks like the new number two behind Patterson for as long as Damien Williams misses time. Patterson is the player you want by a long shot.
- Baltimore Ravens: It didn't take John Harbaugh long to discover Mike Davis has no juice left in the tank. The keys were promptly handed over to Kenyan Drake who led the team with a 52% RMS. Drake will be in charge for as long as JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards miss time (and perhaps a bit longer).
- Buffalo Bills: Rookie running back James Cook squandered his opportunities with an early fumble, leaving backfield duties to our old friends Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. While Moss made more of a splash with a surprising 19% TMS, Singletary looks like a clear favorite in playing time (59% to 37%) and longer-range expectations.
- Carolina Panthers: Christian McCaffrey has historically played 100% of snaps in many games that he has started over the years but was limited to only 81% in Week 1. The pecking order behind McCaffrey does appear to favor DOnta Foreman ahead of Chuba Hubbard.
- Cleveland Browns: DErnest Johnson was a surprise inactive for the Browns, who likely need to trade one of their running backs while they still have value. This opened the door for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to resume their familiar roles in the new Jacoby Brissett offense. Chubb will continue to be an efficient runner while Kareem Hunt gets utilized in high-leverage situations (including red zone work).
- Dallas Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott was a clear-cut lead back for a Cowboys team in desperate need of a spark. With a porous offensive line and now a banged-up Dak Prescott, rough days may lie ahead for all skill players who now must lean on Cooper Rush.
- Denver Broncos: Javonte William's passing game usage was out of this world, garnering a target on 43% of his routes run. Insanity. Melvin Gordon, however, isn't going anywhere.
- Green Bay Packers: The Packers found themselves in a funky game script in this contest, playing from behind. However, A.J. Dillon was used more than teammate Aaron Jones in both rushing and target opportunities. The encouraging part, however, is that both players were utilized in tandem on the field simultaneously. Aaron Jones' superior playing time (61% to 51%) may bode well for a potential resurgence.
- Houston Texans: Did you crown Dameon Pierce the lead back in Houston? Not so fast! Rex Burkhead appears to have created a frustrating lead back role in this offense - one that he should relinquish soon. Only checking in for 29% of Houston's offensive snaps, Pierce was handled with kids gloves in his rookie debut. Hang in there, though - things could change quickly.
- Jacksonville Jaguars: So I guess James Robinson is fully healed from that Achilles tear! Robinson saw far more opportunities than almost-rookie Travis Etienne, handling 61% of Jacksonville's rushing work in addition to a respectable 33% RR. Etienne narrowly edged out Robinson in snap rate but did run far more routes. This backfield reminds me of the Cleveland Browns' usage of Nick Chubb (Robinson) and Kareem Hunt (Etienne).
- Kansas City Chiefs: In a game that heavily featured garbage time, the final box score can be deceiving. While Isiah Pacheco led the Chiefs in rush attempts, his usage was sparked by the blowout partially caused by the efficient play of lead back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Beware the fool's gold here. The depth order, for now, is Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon, and then Isiah Pacheco.
- Las Vegas Raiders: The Josh Jacobs preseason FUD may have been a bit premature. Jacobs toted 77% of the Raiders rush attempts, leaving 23% to Brandon Bolden. The pair were the only two players on the entire team with a rush attempt. Ameer Abdullah barely saw the field on a 12% snap rate, which is more than can be said of hyped rookie Zamir White who played no offensive snaps despite being active.
- Los Angeles Rams: Thursday Night Football featured quite a shock as Darrell Henderson was revealed as the Rams' clear feature back. Cam Akers played on just 18% of the offensive snaps, leaving a huge workload for Henderson behind an inefficient offensive line.
- Miami Dolphins: Chase Edmonds distanced himself from Raheem Mostert in Week 1, establishing himself as the clear RB1 in that rotation. Edmonds saw 52% of the team's rush attempts compared to 22% for Mostert. Edmonds also maintained a significant advantage in the receiving game, leading Mostert 57% to 35% in routes run.
- New York Jets: Michael Carter will not be easily usurped in this Jets offense - even by first-round rookie Breece Hall. Carter dominated with a 60% snap share compared to Hall's 45%. It may take half the season before Hall consistently begins to outpace Carter.
- Pittsburgh Steelers: It looked like business as usual for Najee Harris before suffering an injury. The increased rushing workload fell in the hands of rookie UDFA Jaylen Warren who made a name for himself this offseason. Look for Warren and wide receiver Chase Claypool to both be involved in the running game if Najee Harris misses time.
- San Francisco 49ers: An injury to Elijah Mitchell will sideline him for approximately two months, per reports. The next man up looks like Jeff Wilson, who led the team with a 59% snap share. Despite spending most of the game as the lead back, Wilson barely edged out Deebo Samuel in rush attempts. A post-Mitchell 49ers backfield likely features Wilson and Samuel while perhaps giving a chance to shine for Jordan Mason (active last week) and Tyrion DavisPrice (inactive last week).
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Leonard Fournette got full bell cow treatment until late in the game when Rachaad White encroached on some garbage time work. Fournette should flirt with rushing shares in excess of 80% in multiple games this season.
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