Thursday Showdown Week 9

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Philadelphia Eagles are heading to Houston to take on the Texans as 14-point favorites. The game total is set at 45. This will be a tale of two halves as the Eagles have more points in the second quarter than multiple teams have on the year, but they’re near the bottom in second-half scoring because they’re consistently nursing a lead. For those of you accustomed to pre-season DFS, this game is right in your wheelhouse. On most slates, we try to avoid chalky 3-3 lineups because although they’re the most likely outcomes, they’re also the most duplicated. With a 14-point favorite, we’re likely to see far more 4-2 or 5-1 lineups, which lets us play 3-3 builds more comfortably. Roster percentages will be diluted as the field expects the Eagles' backups to get involved. We can build strong lineups around Houston, somehow managing to cover the spread.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Nico Collins – Groin – DNP

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Jalen Hurts
2. Miles Sanders
3. A.J. Brown
4. Dameon Pierce

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Jalen Hurts $11,800 – Captain or Flex

The 8-0 Eagles have won some nail bitters this year, but the field is going to focus on Week 7 as a clear indication of what Philadelphia will do with a sizable lead. Jalen Hurts has played 100% of the offensive snaps in every week except last week, where the backups played 18%. While the Eagles are massive favorites, it’s difficult for any team to comfortably cover 14 points early enough to rest their starters. Week 7 was the only game in which Hurts rushed less than nine times. If the Texans can push the Eagles even slightly, Hurts should hit nine rushes with nearly 30 attempts. I’m choosing to build lineups around the Texans, somehow keeping this game within 10, which makes Hurts a must-play.

RUNNING BACK

Miles Sanders $10,400 – Captain or Flex

Week one was the only game in that Hurts posted poor production in the passing column, and Miles Sanders rushed just 13 times for 96 yards and a touchdown. Each of the Eagles' top-3 running backs scored in that game. In every other game, Hurts has posted at least modest passing production, and Sanders has been wildly productive. Of course, we want to play Sanders as the lead back for the 14-point favorite, but can we trust him in the same lineup as Hurts at Captain when he isn’t catching passes? The past eight games have said that regardless of game script, Hurts and Sanders can coexist as overachievers.

Kenneth Gainwell $5,000 – Flex

If you’re one of the 15% of the field that consistently rosters Samaje Perine, I’ve got a play for you. Kenneth Gainwell is playing roughly 30% of the snaps and receiving 3.5 carries per game over the last four games. Over that span, he’s got two games with zero catches and two games with one catch. He’s essentially a complete fade as he isn’t necessarily the benefactor of a blowout, either. That honor is likely to go to Boston Scott. Gainwell stays in the player pool as this week’s “so bad he’s good” play.

RECEIVER

A.J. Brown $11,200 - Captain or Flex

A.J. Brown is fresh off his second performance of over 150 yards receiving, but he added three touchdowns this time. With the Eagles sitting at -14 and Brown deservedly reaching the elite wide receiver price range, his roster percentage should be modest. We’ve seen Brown post modest performances this year, so he isn’t quite a Cooper Kupp lock. But he’s got the highest ceiling outside of Hurts, and they just so happen to correlate in a unique way for this slate.

DeVonta Smith $8,200 – Flex

DeVonta Smith started the year with a goose egg which was addressed as unacceptable by head coach Nick Sirriani after the game and has not been an issue since. Tee Higgins gets all the love for the “would be the team’s top wide receiver almost anywhere else” discussion, but Smith belongs in the same conversation. He’s averaging nearly eight targets per game and has a nice 169-yard game under his belt. He’s ironically priced the same as Higgins from Monday night, but Smith doesn’t have the benefit of playing without Brown. Smith has shown his upside is not capped with Brown in the lineup. At $1,600 more than Goedert and $3,000 less than Brown, Smith is a pivot option that could go slightly overlooked.

Dallas Goedert $6,600 – Flex

While considering Bengals comparisons, Dallas Goedert’s usage has been like that of Hayden Hurst, yet he’s $6,600 because he’s not Hayden Hurst. As far as redraft goes, Goedert has been a breath of fresh air in terms of consistency for an otherwise underwhelming tight-end field. For DFS purposes, we’d like to see more of a ceiling for a player like Goedert. Over the past four games, he’s averaging roughly six targets per game with zero touchdowns. He’s reached pay dirt just once back in week three. When we’re looking to stack Hurts, we’ve only got three strong plays, so we like Goedert at a reasonable price tag, but he is the riskiest option.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Boston Scott $1,800 – Flex

Boston Scott rushed seven times for 21 yards on 23% of the snaps last week in the blowout win over the Steelers. Scott is your man if you’re building your lineups around the Eagles comfortably covering the spread.

Quez Watkins $1,400 – Flex

Quez Watkins is far too cheap for a receiver playing over 50% of the snaps. The problem with Watkins is that it’s difficult to get targets in an offense that’s middle of the road in attempts when you’re behind options like Brown and Smith. Watkins has been targeted one or less time in all but two games this season. At some point, a receiver playing over 50% of the snaps is going to get some usage. Watkins profiles as a big-play receiver, but he’s got the bonus of a bit more playing time if the Eagles put this away early.

HOUSTON OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Davis Mills $9,000 – Flex

Andy Dalton turned into Jacoby Brissett, who has now turned into Davis Mills. Every week I write that the field has learned its lesson, and every week I’m wrong. The cheap underdog quarterback has not gotten the usage they deserved, and they continue to appear in the optimal lineups. Mills has a 300-yard upside, as demonstrated two weeks ago against the Raiders in a game where the Texans lost by 18. In similar game-script, Mills will come close to matching his season high of 41 attempts, especially if Brandin Cooks is active.

RUNNING BACK

Dameon Pierce $8,600 – Captain or Flex

Dameon Pierce earns Captain consideration based on volume and salary, even in the worst game script you can give to a running back. Pierce’s targets have quietly picked up, as he’s earned an average of five per game over the past four games. In the blowout loss to the Raiders, Pierce still managed 20 rushes and narrowly missed the 100-yard-bonus. Last week the Derrick Henry-led Titans controlled the entire game, yet Pierce still hit value with three receptions and a receiving touchdown. Pierce is thought of as an early down thumper, but he’s growing into a lead back independent of game script. He comes with an affordable salary and roster percentage.

Rex Burkhead $4,800 – Flex

As Dameon Pierce’s role continues to grow, Rex Burkhead’s shrinks. I can’t believe I’m shocked that a team is going away from a 34-year-old running back to give their promising rookie usage, but such is the NFL. We’ve only got a one-week sample size, but Burkhead was targeted only once last week and played just 19% of the snaps. Seeing a six-target game for Burkhead this week wouldn’t be surprising, but I’m choosing to play this as a changing of the guard from Burkhead to Pierce.

RECEIVER

Brandin Cooks $7,200 – Flex

Brandin Cooks was distraught to find out that he was still a Houston Texan after the trade deadline came and passed. He was skipping practice leading up to the deadline, but ultimately the team didn’t find a trade package they were comfortable with. Cooks is far too cheap for his current role but would be a smash play if he returned to his previous 10-target status we’ve grown accustomed to. We will pay attention to practice reports, but if Cooks plays, he’s my favorite play of the slate.

Chris Moore $5,400 – Flex

Chris Moore is not a name we would know on essentially any other offense in the league, yet he’s potentially the top option for the Texans once again on Thursday night if Cooks sits. He was blanked last week after getting some decent steam on the main slate, but he played 63% of the snaps. Consider Moore in the same way we considered Equanimeous St. Brown a few slates ago where he’s essentially an expensive punt play.

Phillip Dorsett $4,000 – Flex

Phillip Dorsett played nearly every snap last week and was targeted one more time than Moore. He came away with just one reception but profiles much better for a ceiling outcome and is $1,400 less than Moore.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership. Here is where the pre-season DFS column comes in. We have a plethora of players in the punt range who have decent shots to fall into the winning lineup. Here are just a few.

O.J. Howard $1,600 – Flex

O.J. Howard was targeted three times last week and played 50% of the snaps. His usage has been all over the map, and he is the true poster child of what it means to be a great punt play in Showdown.

Brevin Jordan $1,000 – Flex

Brevin Jordan has played four games this season. In three of those games, he was targeted four times. He’s far superior to all other punt options, which will be reflected in his roster percentage.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, and it will be frustrating, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.

If I have any specific notes on either position, I will add them here:

The Eagles DST at $7,000 is one of the highest-priced defenses in Showdown history. There is little to no correlation between defensive scoring and price, as it is one of the most difficult positions to project. If you’re playing five Eagles, you’re going to want to include their defense but should otherwise look to avoid them at their egregious price and roster percentage.