Thursday Showdown Week 3

Photo: USA Today Sports

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Miami Dolphins are heading to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals as 3.5-point underdogs. The game total is set at 47. Tua Tagovailoa led his team to yet another astonishing victory but did not come away unscathed. He injured his back on one of the most talked about plays of the week and is truly questionable for Thursday night. We will proceed as if he is active and make edits should they be required. Both quarterbacks support condensed target distributions, so we will have fewer viable options. We will need to put an added emphasis on unique roster construction to make up for the smaller player pool.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Tee Higgins – Toe – Limited
• Hayden Hurst – Groin – Limited
• Joe Mixon – Ankle – Limited
• Tua Tagovailoa – Back/Ankle – DNP
• Jaylen Waddle – Groin – DNP
• Cedrick Wilson – Ribs/Toe - Limited

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Joe Burrow
2. Joe Mixon
3. JaMarr Chase
4. Tee Higgins
5. Tyreek Hill

MIAMI OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Tua Tagovailoa $9,400 – Flex

Tua Tagovailoa appeared to suffer a serious head injury in week three that turns out to be a back issue. He is also listed for an ankle injury. On a short week, he is unlikely to be full health even if he is active. The Dolphins are passing at one of the league’s highest rates but could look to the ground game more often to take some pressure off of Tagovailoa. If Joe Burrow’s projected roster percentage comes in significantly higher than Tagovailoa’s, there may be a reason to stack Miami, but we’re likely looking to stack Burrow at roughly the same price.