Thursday Showdown Week 3

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Miami Dolphins are heading to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals as 3.5-point underdogs. The game total is set at 47. Tua Tagovailoa led his team to yet another astonishing victory but did not come away unscathed. He injured his back on one of the most talked about plays of the week and is truly questionable for Thursday night. We will proceed as if he is active and make edits should they be required. Both quarterbacks support condensed target distributions, so we will have fewer viable options. We will need to put an added emphasis on unique roster construction to make up for the smaller player pool.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Tee Higgins – Toe – Limited
• Hayden Hurst – Groin – Limited
• Joe Mixon – Ankle – Limited
• Tua Tagovailoa – Back/Ankle – DNP
• Jaylen Waddle – Groin – DNP
• Cedrick Wilson – Ribs/Toe - Limited

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Joe Burrow
2. Joe Mixon
3. JaMarr Chase
4. Tee Higgins
5. Tyreek Hill

MIAMI OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Tua Tagovailoa $9,400 – Flex

Tua Tagovailoa appeared to suffer a serious head injury in week three that turns out to be a back issue. He is also listed for an ankle injury. On a short week, he is unlikely to be full health even if he is active. The Dolphins are passing at one of the league’s highest rates but could look to the ground game more often to take some pressure off of Tagovailoa. If Joe Burrow’s projected roster percentage comes in significantly higher than Tagovailoa’s, there may be a reason to stack Miami, but we’re likely looking to stack Burrow at roughly the same price.

RUNNING BACK

Chase Edmonds $6,200 – Flex

Chase Edmonds played fewer snaps than Raheem Mostert for the second week in a row. Edmonds also received two fewer carries and one less target. He scored two touchdowns, so his roster percentage could be slightly elevated. With Tagovailoa battling injury, both backs are viable, especially given the cost. If choosing only one Miami running back, Mostert is the preferred option.

Raheem Mostert $4,400 – Flex

Raheem Mostert spent much of the preseason battling injury, which led to a backup role in week one. He played the most snaps in weeks two and three and received the most touches amongst Miami running backs. He has failed to hit pay dirt thus far and has ceded red zone opportunities to Edmonds. Mostert is the preferred option given the savings, but both backs are viable as leverage over the Dolphins’ receiving weapons.

RECEIVER

Tyreek Hill $10,800 - Captain or Flex

Despite an offseason of mockery, Tagovailoa seems to be connecting on the deep ball the Tyreek Hill just fine. Hill has recorded 317 yards through three weeks. The Dolphins were last in the league in offensive snaps last week. Before that, Hill saw over ten targets per game. Even with Tagovailoa limited, Hill will see closer to ten targets than four moving forward. Hill and Waddle are both viable one-offs for Bengals stacks, but I lean toward Hill with the thought that his roster percentage comes in lower with his additional cost.

Jaylen Waddle $10,200 – Flex

Jaylen Waddle and Hill are eating up well over 50% of Tagovailoa’s targets. As with Hill, Waddle had a down week three with a strange outing for the Dolphins as a whole. I’m throwing week three out as I feel that weeks one and two were more indicative of Miami’s identity. Tagovailoa’s injury is likely to factor into the Dolphin’s pass rate, but Waddle has 20 target upside on one of the league's most pass-happy offenses. If Waddle’s projected roster percentage comes in lower than Hill’s, Waddle would be the preferred option with savings being the tie-breaker.

Mike Gesicki $5,000 – Flex

Mike Gesicki is running routes at one of the lowest rates in the league amongst starting tight ends. Through the first two weeks, Gesicki and Durham Smythe had been splitting snaps. In week three Smythe took over with 74% to Gesicki’s 40%. Each player has six targets on the year, but Smythe is significantly cheaper. Gesicki is not viable at cost in small field tournaments and should only be played as a contrarian touchdown dart throw in larger fields.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Cedrick Wilson $1,800 – Flex

Cedrick Wilson was an exciting third option in Dallas’ offense last season. He’s gotten off to a shaky start with Miami and is now battling injury. He received three targets through the first two weeks. He demonstrated his 100-yard upside twice last year and can create big plays on limited opportunities. If he’s full health, he’s a reasonable punt in large field tournaments.

Trent Sherfield $1,400 – Flex

The problem with Wilson is that Trent Sherfield is cheaper with a similar price and projected roster percentage. Wilson and Sherfield split third receiver duties evenly before Wilson’s week three injury. If Wilson misses the game Sherfield becomes the best punt option on the slate. If Wilson plays, Sherfield is still a viable option in large field tournaments.

Durham Smythe $2,800 – Flex

If Wilson is active, Durham Smythe will be the preferred punt option. He is more expensive than the two punt receivers and is likely to be less popular. He had been splitting snaps with Gesicki but took over the starting role last week. Smythe is a viable punt option under $3,000 with a shot at four targets this week.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Joe Burrow $9,600 – Captain or Flex

Joe Burrow took just two sacks last week against a formidable Jets front. He has attempted a healthy number of passes, but his primary concern has been pressure. If the Bengal’s offensive line can keep Burrow clean, this offense has a chance to erupt. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns twice this year and has hit the bonus once. With a healthy team total, Burrow sets up well to land as the top Captain option.

RUNNING BACK

Joe Mixon $9,000 – Captain or Flex

Joe Mixon is one of the league’s only remaining workhorses at nearly 70% of the snaps in each week thus far. His receiving usage has been a pleasant surprise after years of begging for him to play in passing situations. He’s turned 20 targets into 13 receptions for 103 yards. He’s a fine Captain regardless of which team you stack, but pairs well with Bengals-heavy builds.

Samaje Perine $7,400 – Flex

Samaje Perine’s price is one of the more confusing you will see. He has averaged 27% of the snaps and, before last week, handled just two carries. Mixon sustained an ankle injury in week three which led to 11 touches for Perine. Perhaps DraftKings wanted to get ahead of Mixon potentially missing time, but that doesn’t appear to be a real concern. Perine is too expensive even as a contrarian option and has no viability outside of a potential in-game reaggravation for Mixon.

RECEIVER

JaMarr Chase $11,000 - Captain or Flex

JaMarr Chase has been a mixed bag through three games. He flashed his elite upside in week one and has been quiet since. His targets are still there as he’s averaged 11 on the year. He was less than a yard short of a two-touchdown performance which would’ve impacted public perception. Given how much cheaper Tee Higgins is with similar opportunity, Chase may be a strong play at a reasonable roster percentage with an unmatched ceiling.

Tee Higgins $8,200 – Captain or Flex

Tee Higgins is the preferred option due to price, but he will likely come at a higher roster percentage. In Higgins’ one healthy week, he played on 89% of the snaps. He saw seven targets in week three and was hampered by an ankle injury. He should be closer to Chase’s average of 11 when healthy. Higgins offers a similar opportunity to Chase and is one of the best values on the slate.

Tyler Boyd $7,000 – Flex

Tyler Boyd is usually one of our favorite low-rostered plays in the $5,000 range. He sees a considerable bump in salary after his week three outing. Boyd benefits from the Bengal’s high percentage of three wide receiver sets. On any given week each of the top three receivers could see ten targets, which is why there are less viable plays than we would typically see with a 47-point total. All three of Burrow’s wide receivers carry strong point-per-dollar projections which is what makes him my favorite Captain. If choosing only one Bengals wide receiver for a Dolphins stack, Boyd would be my preferred option.

Hayden Hurst $5,400 – Flex

Hayden Hurst is battling injury for his second consecutive week, but the good news is that he has been playing through it. The bad news is that his production dropped considerably last week. After games with 8 and 7 targets, he only had two passes come his way. His snap percentage dropped significantly to just 38%. We currently have him projected well at roughly 9 points, but that is assuming full health. He would be a strong leverage play over the Bengal’s wide receivers but pay attention to injury news to see if he is healthy enough to bet on.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Mitchell Wilcox $600 – Flex

With Hurst missing snaps, Mitchell Wilcox picked up the slack. He’s been targeted once in each of the last two games. Wilcox’s roster percentage could get out of hand if Hurst is inactive. If Hurst plays, Wilcox could be a quality pivot off the more popular Miami punts.