NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
GAME THEORY
The Jacksonville Jaguars are heading to New York to take on the Jets as a pick 'em. The game total is set at a lowly 38. Early reports indicate that Zach Wilson will be receiving the starting nod once again with Mike White sidelined due to multiple rib injuries. Since we’ve got an even spread, this is a great week to take a firm stance on a team. With Wilson drawing the start for the Jets, I’ll be heavily stacking the Jaguars. Their premier positions are more expensive, which will lead optimizers to take the value New York provides. We get an offense that has put up 27 or more points in 4 of their last six games at a discounted roster percentage.
INJURY ROUND-UP
- Mike White – Ribs – Out
- Denzel Mims – Head – Did Not Participate
- Jeff Smith – Knee – Did Not Participate
- Corey Davis – Head – Full Participant
CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION
- Travis Etienne
- Trevor Lawrence
- Zay Jones
- Christian Kirk
- Garrett Wilson
JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Trevor Lawrence $11,400 – Captain or Flex
Lawrence is questionable with a toe injury. But he’s been documented as a full practice participant, and there have been no indications that he may miss this game. He’s hit the 300-yard-bonus in three of his last four games. He threw at least three touchdown passes in each week that he hit the bonus. We’re not expecting a ceiling performance from Lawrence this week, but if he remains efficient, he’s got a great chance at finishing as the optimal Captain.
RUNNING BACK
Travis Etienne $9,600 – Captain or Flex
Etienne hit the 100-yard-bonus for the first time since he did it three times in a row in Weeks 7-9. He played 73% of the snaps and rushed 19 times in addition to 2 receptions. He put together 4 straight abysmal performances in Weeks 10-14, primarily due to injury, but he appears to be back to form. His salary is far too cheap for his workload.
RECEIVER
Christian Kirk $10,200 – Captain or Flex
Kirk’s salary in comparison to Zay Jones is criminal, but that’s part of why he’s an excellent play. Jones is the far superior option at cost, but he will carry a higher roster percentage. This is why I’d prefer to simply triple-stack Lawrence. Kirk is still a strong option, independent of his comparison with Jones. His 22.2% target share over the last four games, paired with the ceiling he’s displayed multiple times this season, makes Kirk plenty reasonable at cost.
Zay Jones $8,200 – Captain or Flex
Jones has been on a tear of late, but he’s been a quietly elite contributor all season. Kirk was the huge free-agent acquisition, but Jones has just 10 fewer targets on the year. In each of the previous three games where Lawrence has hit the bonus, Jones has been the primary contributor. If we’re playing Lawrence, we should be stacking him with Jones, even at an elevated roster percentage.
Evan Engram $7,600 – Flex
Engram has a whopping 25 targets over the last two games. Perhaps more impressive, given his career to date, is his catch rate this season. Draftkings priced up the Jaguars in relation to the Jets, but they’re still too cheap, including Engram.
Marvin Jones $5,000 – Flex
Just one season removed from being Lawrence’s top target, Marvin Jones has finally reached his twilight years. He emerged last week in the come-from-behind effort against Dallas, but his role has been minimal on the season. He’s worth some exposure in large field tournaments, but we’ve got better pairing options at cheaper salaries.
UNDER THE RADAR
This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.
JaMycal Hasty $2,800 – Flex
Hasty played 23% of the snaps and participated predominantly on passing downs. He was targeted only once, but he’s worth considering as a punt play to pair with Lawrence.
Jamal Agnew $2,000 – Flex
Agnew played only 14% of the snaps, but when he’s on the field, he’s involved. He carried the ball three times and caught two passes. He’s also worth considering as a pairing option with the Jaguars' defense in onslaughts for the kick-returner double-dip.
NEW YORK OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Zach Wilson $9,800 – Flex
Wilson had one of the best fantasy performances of his career last week, but he still showed flashes of why the team felt so inclined to humor Mike White seeing 10 doctors before being declared inactive. He completed just over 50% of his passes on his way to the 300-yard-bonus. There is a ton of value on the New York side of the football, but I prefer to use them as one-offs rather than relying on Wilson to replicate last week’s outing.
RUNNING BACK
Zonovan Knight $7,000 – Flex
Knight’s snap share remained consistent, but he received fewer touches than he had in any game since being activated. He rushed just 13 times for 23 yards and was not targeted. If Carter had seen an uptick in opportunities, this would be alarming, but this was more than likely game-script related. Knight is still a viable option, given his cost and the workload he earned in his previous three starts.
Michael Carter $6,400 – Flex
As much as the team seems to love Michael Carter, we’d think his typical workload would’ve resumed at some point this season. It has not, and Knight does not seem to be in any mood to let go of the reigns. Carter is more of a contrarian pivot than a quality stand-alone option.
RECEIVER
Garrett Wilson $9,000 – Captain or Flex
Zach Wilson had a difficult time connecting with Garrett Wilson once again. Garrett Wilson has been productive with every Jets quarterback sans Zach Wilson, and the trend continues. He did receive 9 targets and nearly hit the 100-yard-bonus. If the Jaguars excel in the scoring category, Wilson is the receiver we’re going to want on the other end.
Corey Davis $5,600 – Flex
Davis has had an up-and-down season, which is making his Week 16 involvement difficult to predict. When healthy, he’s played over 70% of the snaps and earned roughly 5 targets per game. Without playing with Zach Wilson last week, the field will likely not feel comfortable clicking on Davis. He’s a fair mid-range option that may be overlooked.
Elijah Moore $4,800 – Flex
Moore’s entire season was derailed partially due to his lack of involvement in the offense, which likely had to do with Zach Wilson’s inability to get him involved. With Zach Wilson’s return, I expected more of the same. He was actually targeted seven times with a 75% snap share. I’m skeptical about this with Davis available.
Tyler Conklin $3,200 – Flex
C.J. Uzomah found paydirt twice last week but Tyler Conklin played 75% of the snaps and was targeted the same amount.
UNDER THE RADAR
This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.
Braxton Berrios $1,600 – Flex
Braxton Berrios was targeted six times last week on a 43% snap share. If Denzel Mims misses this game, it further solidifies Berrios as the slate’s top punt option.
Kicker and DST
In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, and it will be frustrating, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.
If I have any specific notes on either position, I will add them here:
It is very likely a kicker will end up in the optimal lineup with such a low total, especially on a Thursday night slate where we typically see a breakdown in RedZone execution. I still don't recommend rostering both teams' kickers in the same lineup, and often shy away from rostering the opposing kicker to my defense as well.