Thursday Showdown Week 14

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Las Vegas Raiders are heading to Los Angeles to take on the Rams as 6-point favorites. The game total is set at 44.5. This line started at 5.5 and quickly moved to 6. When you start breaking down these rosters it I easy to see why. Given last week’s performances, the Rams are going to have a tough time getting two players into our optimal lineups. Raiders onslaughts are going to be more prevalent than perhaps any other slate this season. Getting unique with Raiders 5-1 builds is going to be a tall task when their target tree is so condensed, and their most viable flex in Keelan Cole will carry a roster percentage north of 30%. To differentiate my lineups, I’m willing to go down to a Captain like Mack Hollins or Van Jefferson, even with studs like Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams available.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Josh Jacobs – Quad – Limited
• Brandon Bolden – Calf – Limited
• Ameer Abdullah – Hamstring – Limited
• John Wolford – Neck – Limited
• Ben Skowronek – Shoulder - Limited

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Josh Jacobs
2. Davante Adams
3. Derek Carr
4. Mack Hollins
5. Van Jefferson

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Derek Carr $10,200 – Captain or Flex

Last week Derek Carr threw for 250 yards. Davante Adams accounted for an insane 70.8% of those yards. Even with Jalen Ramsey coverage looming, I expect Carr and Adams to be the focal point of most lineups. Adams will be the most popular Captain, making Carr at Captain with multiple Raiders pass catchers as a viable pivot in the hopes that he distributes his pass attempts more evenly this week.

RUNNING BACK

Josh Jacobs $12,400 – Captain or Flex

Josh Jacobs has been fantasy’s top back for most of the season. He has carried the ball 20 or more times in seven of twelve games played: including his 26 carries for 144 yards and a touchdown last week. Jacobs, Adams, and Carr will be in nearly every lineup, so we will have to pay special attention to how we play them. With Jacobs at Captain, give heavy consideration to including the Raiders' defense, especially if you’re only playing one Ram.

RECEIVER

Davante Adams $12,800 – Captain or Flex

Typically, Jalen Ramsey isn’t following anyone, but given the Raiders' lack of depth at receiver, it seems unlikely Ramsey is going to be covering Keelan Cole or Mack Hollins for a sizeable percentage of snaps. Even if the Rams decide to dip into the old Jaguars playbook and stick Ramsey to Adams, it’s Ramsey who should be concerned. Adams will be the most popular Captain, deservedly so, but we will have to pay special attention to avoid being too chalky with these builds.

Mack Hollins $7,400 – Flex

Mack Hollins has two games with nine targets over the last three weeks. Even with 12 of Carr’s 30 attempts going to Adams, Hollins still carried a respectable target share. He caught just five for 35 last week, but his opportunity is plenty viable for his price given his upside of eight catches for 158 and a touchdown he demonstrated in week three under similar circumstances.

Foster Moreau $6,600 – Flex

Foster Moreau seems to be the odd man out amongst the Raiders’ every-down receiving options. He has played over 90% of the snaps every week since Darren Waller’s injury, but he has not caught more than three passes since week eight. Even with Moreau’s low target share and catch rate, he is one of the better plays of the slate simply because he is one of the unique options for the Raiders.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Ameer Abdullah $3,000 – Flex

Over the past six weeks, Abdullah has hovered around 20% of the snaps. He’s received at least three targets in all but one of those games. His price is a bit ridiculous given his usage, but Abdullah is the type of player you need to hit on if you don’t want your Raiders onslaught to be duplicated.

Keelan Cole $200 – Flex

Keelan Cole is enticing as a minimum-priced player that participates in over 60% of the snaps and should see multiple targets on the favorite offense, but if his roster projection gets out of control, we will need to look elsewhere.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

John Wolford $8,800 – Flex

Here I am for another week of recommending the underdog quarterback. If nothing else, Wolford’s roster percentage will be like Matt Ryan’s around 20%, and he will force us off one of Jacobs, or Adams, which may not be the worst thing. Wolford completed only 26 passes for 178 yards and two picks, but he also ran five times. If Wolford can score similarly to either Adams or Jacobs, we’re in business.

RUNNING BACK

Cam Akers $7,800 – Flex

Cam Akers is like Wolford in that he’s an expensive Rams player that would make our lineups unique without either Jacobs or Adams, but he has far fewer outs. Akers dominated running back snaps last week with 70% but was targeted just once. He’s only got three receptions on the year. If this game gets out of hand, Akers turns into an “anytime touchdown” bet as the only way he gets in the optimal lineup.

Kyren Williams $5,400 – Flex

Kyren Williams started one game, and apparently, the Rams saw enough. Given the turmoil between Akers and Darrell Henderson, the thought was that Williams would be the only back the Rams trusted at this point. That was not the case as Williams took a back seat to Akers and is not expected to receive nearly enough work to pay off this price tag.

RECEIVER

Van Jefferson $6,400 – Captain or Flex

Van Jefferson has one of the weakest resumes I’ve considered for Captain all season. It has little to do with him so much as it has to do with the nature of the slate. The optimal lineup is straightforward this week. It will include Jacobs, Adams, Carr, and either Cole or Hollins. If we can get Wolford to make the optimal lineup in the Flex, he may do it on the back of his best available receiver in Jefferson.

Tyler Higbee $6,200 – Flex

Tyler Higbee tied TuTu Atwell in targets last week but was only able to haul in two catches. His box score production over the past two weeks has been atrocious, but he’s been playing injured. Last week’s target share was a step in the right direction. If Higbee is back to full health, he is the most likely to dominate targets in a come-from-behind effort.

Ben Skowronek $4,800 – Flex

Ben Skowronek and Tutu Atwell are both viable options for similar prices. If choosing just one, I’d lean toward Skowronek for the 97% snap share and the likelihood that Atwell carries a higher roster percentage.

Tutu Atwell $4,400 – Flex

Tutu Atwell may be the more popular Rams receiver, given he tied for the team lead in target share last week, but that target total was just five. He also only played 47% of the snaps with a thin Rams depth chart. Atwell is typically the boom-bust player type we’re targeting in Showdown, but not if his roster percentage is falling north of 20%.

Brandon Powell $2,400 – Flex

Brandon Powell is one of my favorite plays of the slate. He played nearly as many snaps as Atwell, was targeted only one less time, and caught two more passes. Not to mention he’s $2,000 less and appears, as of now, to carry a lower roster percentage than Skowrenek or Atwell. Pairing Powell with Wolford gives us a unique stack to run back with four Raiders.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Austin Trammell $600 – Flex

Trammell gets large field consideration due to two targets, but he played just 10 snaps.

Brycen Hopkins $200 – Flex

Brycen Hopkins’ snap share has been unpredictable, but he deserves to be in the player pool for large field tournaments, given his two games with two targets over the last four weeks.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, and it will be frustrating, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.

If I have any specific notes on either position, I will add them here:

When playing Raiders onslaughts, strongly consider adding their defense to the lineup, especially if playing Jacobs at Captain. On the flip side, if you’re playing two or three Rams, strongly consider adding Daniel Carlson in hopes that the Raiders have to settle for more field goals than Touchdowns.