Thursday Showdown Week 10

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Atlanta Falcons are heading to Carolina to take on the Panthers as 3-point favorites. The game total is set at 44. The Falcons enter this divisional matchup shockingly tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Perhaps equally as shocking is the fact that the Carolina Panthers blew out the Buccaneers in P.J. Walker’s first start. While this game may have the look of yet another prime-time snoozer, we have the making for a competitive shootout. Both teams are in the bottom half in pass rate, with the Falcons coming in at 29^th. We have multiple viable backs in each backfield that we will need to sort through. With the Falcons coming in as three-point favorites on the road, I will be leaning into Atlanta-heavy builds, while being slightly more willing to run 3-3 lineups this week. We will need to find ways to get exposure to each run game, while still managing to incorporate some unexpected passing success.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Chuba Hubbard – Ankle – Full Participant
• Laviska Shenault – Illness – Full Participant
• Rashard Higgins – Illness – Did Not Participate

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Cordarrelle Patterson
2. Marcus Mariota
3. D.J. Moore
4. Drake London
5. Kyle Pitts
6. P.J. Walker

ATLANTA OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Marcus Mariota $10,200 – Captain or Flex

Marcus Mariota has completed less than 15 passes in six of nine games thus far. He’s not had a single game over 20 completions. While the passing volume is concerning, we’ve got two factors to set our minds at ease. First, the Falcon's target tree is condensed, so we have a good idea of where the volume is going. Secondly, Mariota has a fantastic rushing floor that should add anywhere from three to six points to his fantasy output. Ultimately, we’re going to have to treat Falcons double-stacks as a same-game touchdown parlay. In Atlanta builds we’ll plan on Mariota throwing multiple touchdowns on low volume and trying to get his receivers right.

RUNNING BACK

Cordarrelle Patterson $11,800 – Captain or Flex

The Falcons have been mixing and matching running backs with varying levels of success since week four. In week nine, Cordarrelle Patterson made his triumphant return to the lineup with 13 carries for 44 yards and 2 touchdowns. He led the team in snap share, albeit only slightly, at 39%. Before the injury, we saw Patterson playing roughly 60% of the snaps and we must believe given last week’s performance he will get back there. He’s so expensive that we should feel comfortable playing him without having to worry too much about his roster percentage getting out of hand.

Tyler Allgeier $6,200 – Flex

Tyler Allgeier managed to play 38% of the snaps in Patterson’s return. His playing time is likely to remain the same, with Caleb Huntley’s snap share dwindling to make up the difference for Patterson’s increased workload. Allgeier has 10 or more rushes in every game but one this season. He’s likely to continue his usage and can be treated similarly to how we would treat Kareem Hunt on slates where we have an expensive Nick Chubb. Patterson and Allgeier are viable together as a way to get unique.

RECEIVER

Drake London $8,200 - Captain or Flex

Drake London is 7^th in target share, but 39^th in catchable targets. He’s being treated as a true top wide receiver, but he and Mariota aren’t connecting. We’ve got to believe that a blowup game is coming given how often London has been targeted, and how little it’s translated to fantasy success. The breakout performance for London could come as soon as this week if this game manages to turn into a shootout.

Kyle Pitts $7,000 – Flex

We can essentially copy and paste London’s blurb for Kyle Pitts. He’s being targeted an appropriate amount for a second receiving option, but it is not translating to fantasy success. Furthermore, most would argue that Pitts should be targeted far more than some random second-receiving option. Pitts and London turn out to be an amazing showdown pairing with Mariota. The volume and talent are there, but with Mariota passing so few times, and Patterson being so expensive, people will be unlikely to invest so much salary into a Mariota, Pitts, and London double stack.

Olamide Zaccheaus $5,400 – Flex

Olamide Zaccheaus handles about 70% of the snaps and is averaging roughly three targets per game. His salary puts him in a range where people will be more comfortable getting up to some more expensive options, or down to the kickers and defenses. He’s a fine one-off option at a low roster percentage.

Damiere Byrd $4,400 – Flex

Damiere Byrd is like Zaccheus in that his price makes him a reasonable play at a low roster percentage. He’s playing fewer snaps and has just one game with more than one target. Given his long touchdown upside, he still makes the player pool.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Parker Hesse $200 – Flex

Parker Hesse has a nearly 50% snap share and has a reception in five of nine games. He’s seeing the field and running routes. That’s all we can ask of a quality punt play.

CAROLINA OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

P.J. Walker $9,600 – Captain or Flex

P.J. Walker starting games with Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold healthy was not on my 2022 bingo card, but here we are. Walker has been a mixed bag as a starter. Just two weeks ago, he connected with D.J. Moore on a hail Mary to hit the 300-yard-bonus and send it to overtime against this Falcons team. Last week he completed three passes and was benched for Mayfield. We’ve seen the underdog quarterback going overlooked all year, so with Walker’s shaky production, we should see him come in under rosters projections.

RUNNING BACK

DOnta Foreman $7,800 – Flex

This backfield is going to be a headscratcher, but I expect Foreman to be the lead back, so I’ll do a bulk of the heavy lifting here. In the first week after the Christian McCaffrey trade, both Foreman and Hubbard had phenomenal games. Foreman went for over 100 yards and a touchdown, while Hubbard had 63 yards and added two catches. The next week Hubbard was inactive due to injury and Foreman had another incredible performance with little to no backfield competition. Last week without Hubbard, Foreman was completely game-scripted out in a blowout loss to Cincinnati, so he ended up splitting touches with Raheem Blacksheer. I expect Foreman to be the lead back with around 60% of the snap share.

Chuba Hubbard $5,800 – Flex

Chuba Hubbard should regain a large share of the backfield but with Foreman’s recent production, Hubbard likely comes in at the low end of the 60/40 split.

Raheem Blackshear $5,000 – Flex

Blackshear’s price is indicative of Hubbard being inactive. With Hubbard active, Blacksheer should be relegated back to the bench.

RECEIVER

D.J. Moore $9,200 – Captain or Flex

In Walker’s first two starts Moore looked as though his fantasy season was saved. He was targeted at least 10 times in each game. Last week the game got out of hand so quickly that Moore couldn’t even get involved in a come-from-behind effort. Fortunately for more, the Panthers have decided to give the starting nod to Walker again after benching him last week. This means we can expect D.J. Moore to fall back into his elite role in a game that we could see hitting the over.

Terrace Marshall Jr $8,400 – Flex

Dynasty managers can rejoice as Terrace Marshall has put together a couple of solid weeks of production. He’s been targeted six and nine times respectively over the last two weeks. His price is high given his role over the entirety of the season, but he’s a full-time player with a chance at a pass-heavy game script.

Shi Smith $3,600 – Flex

Shi Smith is the third wide receiver on the depth chart, but he played 80% of the snaps last week due to the Panthers' usage of three wide receiver sets. With Laviska Shenault set to return, and Rashard Higgins questionable, it’s unlikely Smith will see the same snap share in week 10. At $3,600 he’s a fine play with a low roster percentage as he is still likely to carry the third-highest snap share amongst wider receivers.

Tommy Tremble $3,200 – Flex

Tommy Tremble has been targeted four times in each of the past two weeks but has come up with just four catches for 28 yards. He’s splitting snaps nearly in half with Ian Thomas. He’s the third-best option of the Panthers' receivers in the $3,000 range.

Laviska Shenault $3,000 – Flex

Laviska Shenault is set to return after missing last week due to an illness. In week 8 against Atlanta Shenault was targeted six times with five receptions for 26 yards. Smith is the best option of the bunch but Shanault is a reasonable pivot who should carry a very low roster percentage.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership. Here is where the pre-season DFS column comes in. We have a plethora of players in the punt range who have decent shots to fall into the winning lineup. Here are just a few.

Ian Thomas $2,000 – Flex

As previously mentioned, Thomas is splitting snaps with Tremble, but he’s $1,200 less. He’s received at least two targets in all but three games this season. He’s the preferred punt option for the Panthers.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, and it will be frustrating, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.

If I have any specific notes on either position, I will add them here: