WE'RE ALWAYS LOOKING FOR AN EDGE
We don't always know where to look and when we do, we often fail to recognize the genuine article for it is. An edge at this time of the year can require risk. Most people are risk-averse. There is a smaller percentage of GMs who often lack a good barometer for what's too risky, but they're a topic for another time.
Gaining an edge at this time of the year requires having the vision to see the possibility of an outcome that most people didn't expect, identifying the tangible and logical reasons that can underpin this possibility, and having the guts to embrace it.
If you're a serial trader, check yourself with that fine line between what's truly going to upgrade your team with the least amount of downside and pursuing the thrill of the deal in order to get high from the buzz of the potential ceiling outcome.
This feature, like many I'm doing this year, is rooted in the idea of identifying players who could potentially outperform their current value for the rest of the year and, based on common public perceptions about their profile, could be acquired at a low enough cost to minimize the risk.
Minimizing risk doesn't mean there will be minimal risk, just less of it than there is with other players/scenarios.
When examing the past three weeks of the fantasy season, Chiefs' Mecole Hardman is the ninth-ranked PPR receiver during this span. Hardman and A.J. Brown lead NFL receivers with four touchdowns during this stretch. Hardman's 28 yards rushing doesn't sound like much, but it's the third-highest during this span behind Parris Campbell and Curtis Samuel.
Samuel is the 13th-ranked PPR receiver entering Week 10. Should we be valuing Hardman along a spectrum that includes Samuel as his rest-of-season upside?
Kansas City is a crowded receiver room that just added Kadarius Toney, a superb talent whose skills could allow him to fill Hardman's role and expand upon it. Will Toney overtake Hardman? If Toney acclimates quickly to the offense, is there room for him and Hardman to coexist as fantasy values this year?
Let's take these questions one at a time. First...
I've Never Been a Hardman Fan
Hardman earned a pre-draft grade as a high-end reserve whose score was on the cusp of being an immediate contributor as a role player in the 2019 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Here's my quick run-down of how I viewed this class of slot receivers in order of where I ranked them:
- Marquise Brown - Although characterized as a deep-route specialist, I noted there was more than met the eye with his skill in high-traffic zones.
- Hunter Renfrow - I noted that he'd need a great fit but could deliver with a high-volume opportunity.
- Olamide Zaccheaus - Noted that his route running hinted at offering more promise than just as a short-area dump-off option. He has been a vertical threat in Atlanta.
- Penny Hart - He's stuck around in Seattle but hasn't done much for fantasy GMs.
- Greg Dortch - Liked him in the Brown-Zaccheau-Hard mold.
- Andy Isabella - I had questions about his ability to deliver against physical play.
- Hardman - I had questions about his ability to identify, communicate, and execute the subtleties asked of him in a traditional slot role.
Here are some key points from his scouting report:
- Obviously, his speed makes him a threat to defeat man-to-man coverage, playing him tight if he can avoid getting jammed.
- He sets up routes well enough to turn defenders around who play off-coverage and are threatened by his speed, which won't happen as often in the NFL.
- He attacks the ball well and tracks it over his shoulder, which makes him a capable vertical threat.
- He handles contact effectively at the catch point.
- He struggles to earn targets that aren't on his frame or with the flow of his break path.
- If he could find a team where he ran a lot of routes against off-coverage or zone coverage, his hands were good enough to mimic his value at Georgia but the idea of him becoming the next Tyreek Hill seems far too optimistic.
- Consistency as a route runner and playmaker in match-up scenarios was lacking and limited his ceiling to a big-play slot option who isn't regarded as the driving force of a receiving game.
I gave Hardman a healthy bump with my post-draft ranking because of his potential to perform in a Chiefs offense that could eventually maximize what he does best while minimizing the demand for him to be a primary match-up contributor who had to win against top man-to-man corners to generate value.
Still, I wasn't bullish on Hardman after the draft. I ranked him 16th overall on my board as the top player in my second tier. He would need time to become a contributor with consistent production and he might never reach a ceiling as a fantasy WR1-WR2 to count on year in and year out.
I'm still not convinced he'll ever merit that value long-term. However, Hardman has improved his game, and his role in the offense has fantasy value, especially this year.
Roll the tape.
Hardman's 2022 Film
While Curtis Samuel is a bigger athlete with legitimate running back touches at Ohio State and Hardman was recruited to Georgia as a five-star cornerback, it's apparent from the games that the Chiefs exploit Hardman's skills as a runner in a similar fashion as Samuel. Hardman lacks Samuel's power, but he's more explosive. And the Chiefs understand, as the Commanders do with Samuel, that there are ways to manufacture rushing lanes on the perimeter that mimic the return game.
This is one of the reasons why the Chiefs valued move tight ends like Noah Gray and Joe Fortson, as well as veteran receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdez-Scantling. All four are effective blockers in space but also present problems for opponents as receivers.
Travis Kelce obviously qualifies more than anyone on this front, but he's also a force multiplier in the passing game who occupies the attention of multiple zone defenders, and that leaves holes for a receiver like Hardman to exploit as the beneficiary who is often attacking the same zone triangle of defenders focused on the all-world tight end.
This offense is built for a player like Hardman but also has the matchup players to punish opposing defenses trying to foil the schemed plays to the speedster. Travis Kelce is what I call an XXL-X receiver who can match up against most defenders one-on-one.
Kelce and Smith-Schuster are excellent route runners against zone coverage. They are rarely out of sync with the way Patrick Mahomes II reads coverage, and they excel as tight-coverage playmakers who adjust to last-second adjustments with pass placement that requires the receiver to make a difficult play in order to protect the ball from defensive backs.
Combined with Valdez-Scantling's vertical threat and backs who command respect as check-down options in the shallow zone, Hardman earns targets that leverage his strengths. The fantasy community has trashed Hardman over the years because they imagined him as their Jaylen Waddle to Tyreek Hill, failing to understand that Hardman was never a primary receiving talent on Waddle's level.
Now that much of the fantasy community wrote off Hardman, the Chiefs crafted a supporting cast that supports a role where Hardman can be a consistent factor, and we've been behind the curve. Hardman also deserves credit for improving his skills as a route runner against zone coverage and handling targets that are away from his frame and against the grain of his breaks.
Hardman clearly fills a defined role that's valuable to his offense:
- An intermediate and vertical receiving threat working from the inside of the field where the Chiefs exploit matchups against safeties, linebackers, or off-coverage cornerbacks playing zone.
- A perimeter threat from the backfield or motioning across the backfield as a runner, receiver from the backfield, or screen threat.
- A player who can benefit from zone coverage rolling over to account for Travis Kelce and frequently overcompensate in the act of doing so.
Although passing offenses have tanked across the league, the Chiefs remain one of the few units delivering aerial production on par with recent years before defenses clamped down with two-high shells. Mahomes, as is the case with most elite quarterbacks with healthy receivers and offensive linemen, is skilled enough to support multiple fantasy threats during the season.
Kelce and Smith-Schuster are two of them, but Mahomes is producing at a rate to support three, if not four.
Hardman appears to be that third guy, but...
With Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney in the Fold, Will Hardman's Role Last?
I'm not concerned about Moore this year. He had a three-week span where he earned 3-4 targets, but for the past two weeks, he's only earned one target in each game and no receptions.
The football public underrates the difficulty of learning how to read coverage in the NFL. There are a lot more wrinkles than they see in the college game. Even when the coverages are familiar, the way defender disguise their intentions can bait quarterbacks and receivers into overthinking. This creates communication breakdowns or hesitant play that defenders can exploit.
Moore was known for his production in the middle of the field but being good at finding open zones at Western Michigan is only the beginning of his developmental path. It got him a chance to stick to an NFL team, now he has to develop the acumen to make quick adjustments with one of the quickest and deepest minds to ever play quarterback in an offense that's a lot more involved than his Saturday playbook.
Moore has the talent to get there, but Hardman has had years to develop in Andy Reid's offense and has earned a rapport with Mahomes that Moore lacks right now.
Toney's talent is undeniable. When examining his game purely on the basis of his tape, Toney could handle Hardman's role and expand it back into what the Chiefs had with Hill.
@mattwaldmanrsp #kadariustoney #kansascitychiefs #widereciever #fantasyfootball #nfl #widereciever #mattwaldman ♬ Snakes - Bob Berg
Tape is only part of the equation. Coaches must value reliability. Is the player mentally prepared every week? Does he avoid huge lapses on the field? Is his physical preparation good enough that he's in shape?
I can't tell you if Toney's issues have to do with the three questions above. I can tell you that Toney has a playing style that often involves dynamic movements that force him off-balance or extend his legs far outside his frame. This leads to slips, taking hits while in awkward positions, and falls where he's in less control of his frame than others.
There's a real possibility that his movement style drives his soft-tissue injuries. And because his game demands this style, he may need to be a lot healthier than the average player to perform effectively. Most players play hurt, but they understand how to move efficiently enough that they can be effective when dealing with many injuries.
Toney's style of movement may reduce his every-week reliability. If it does, he may have to retrain his movement style to remedy it. There's no guarantee it will happen. Sammy Watkins and Donte Stallworth might be past examples here.
Coaches usually don't delve into movement style when considering if a player is reliable or not. They see it as a bottom-line scenario: If he can't be available, he isn't reliable. The Chiefs are in a position to take calculated risks on the upside of players like Toney, but it doesn't mean Toney is an immediate plug-and-play solution.
He's Hardman's greatest threat to sustained fantasy production in this offense. Toney's mercurial talents make him a potential league winner if he acclimates fast to the offense.
I like Toney's skills a lot more than Hardman's, but I'd bet on Hardman keeping his role because Hardman has proven his value while Toney has a lot to prove.
Fantasy Advice
Hardman is worth adding as a counter bet to anyone adding Toney. If you have the luxury to add both and use one as the hedge against the other, why not? You'll see within 2-3 weeks if Toney emerges or is simply this year's Josh Gordon in terms of high-profile talent with no on-field impact.
Toney earned nine snaps and two targets during his Chiefs' debut. If his snap totals rise to at least 30-35 and Hardman's drop below 30, that's a sign that Toney could emerge as a fantasy threat. With the bye weeks underway, if Hardman is available, add him. I recently did, and I've never invested in a share of Hardman during his career.
If someone offers Hardman as a pot sweetener in a trade and you can use Hardman as a bye-week option with a potential upside, you don't need to factor into the success of the deal, do it.
Good luck.