Sunday Showdown Week 9

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Tennessee Titans are heading to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs as 10.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 46.5. The three things in life we can count on are death, taxes, and frustrating Chiefs Showdown pricing. At running back, we have a three-headed committee with the real lead back (Jerick McKinnon) priced at just $3,000, the fake lead back (Isiah Pacheco) priced just above punt territory, and the third option who is actually the top fantasy producer (Clyde Edwards-Helaire) priced all the way up at $7,000. Wide receiver isn’t much better with Kadarius Toney making his Chiefs debut at a whopping $6,800 while Marquez Valdes-Scantling finds himself at just $5,400 which is even cheaper than Mecole Hardman. The Tennessee offense is easily projectable, especially if Ryan Tannehill plays. Nailing down the best plays on the Kansas City offense is going to be the key to this slate.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Ryan Tannehill – Ankle – Questionable

Jody Fortson – Quad – Out

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Patrick Mahomes II
2. Travis Kelce
3. Derrick Henry
4. JuJu Smith-Schuster

TENNESSEE OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Ryan Tannehill $9,800 – Flex

Davis Mills was so close to being the king we needed on Thursday night. Nonetheless, we’ve got another underdog quarterback sitting at less than $10,000 with an extremely projectable target distribution. Tannehill will be an excellent pairing option with one receiver and no Derrick Henry in a Chiefs heavy stack if he’s able to go.

If Tannehill is unable to play, Malik Willis is getting another starting nod. He was disappointing, to say the least on a main slate in which he found himself carrying a high roster percentage. Some may sour due to his frustrating first performance but I’m guessing the field will be going right back to the well given his rushing upside. His salary is a bit rich given his floor, but he provides nice leverage over a highly rostered Henry.

RUNNING BACK

Derrick Henry $10,800 – Captain or Flex

With Tannehill out the offensive philosophy was clear. Give the ball to Derrick Henry. Mike Vrabel said as much on the side-line in a “Mic’d up” clip plainly stating “They can’t tackle Derrick”. No, Mike, no one can. Draftkings did us no favors by keeping his price at a reasonable $10,800. If Tannehill is out play Henry and find other ways to make your roster unique. If Tannehill plays Henry is still worth rostering as the third-highest projection on the slate.

Dontrell Hilliard $4,200 – Flex

Dontrell Hilliard’s usage has been inconsistent, but we’ve seen him excel on limited touches in multiple game environments. He’s played six games and has been targeted at least four times in half of them. Last week he crushed his season high in rushing attempts with eight which resulted in 88 yards. Even with Tannehill active, we’re likely to see a run-heavy game script that features both backs. If the Chiefs get out to an egregious lead Hilliard has multiple paths to greatness as either the passing down back or even the “wave the white flag” back late in the game. He’s my favorite play of the slate.

Receiver

Robert Woods $7,600 – Flex

Robert Woods is essentially the only show in town for the Titans, and it hasn’t been a great show. Last week he tied for his season low in targets at just two, but he was catching passes for Willis. With Tannehill active, we’re expecting Woods to see roughly five targets. At $7,600 most people won’t gravitate towards woods as he projects similarly to the Chiefs’ receivers in the $5,000 range. He is strong leverage over Henry in lineups including four Chiefs.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $5,200 – Flex

There is essentially no second wide receiver in Tennessee which is another reason to love Hilliard. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine draws the $5,200 salary because DraftKings had to put someone there for the Titans. He’s posted goose eggs twice this season, with more than one reception only twice through eight games. In true Showdown fashion, he’s “fine” in Titans stacks, but has no business being played over Hardman or Valdes-Scantling other than as leverage.

Geoff Swaim $3,400 – Flex

Geoff Swaim leads the Titans' trifecta at tight end in snaps but is more of a blocker. He hasn’t had multiple receptions in a game since week three. At $3,400 he’s the least appealing of the three options.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some paths to success at low ownership.

Austin Hooper $1,800 – Flex

Austin Hooper was brought in to be the receiving tight end in free agency this offseason. For whatever reason, it has not panned out. We at least know the team would like him to catch the ball because they paid him to do so, and there is no second option in the passing game. His salary is high for one target, but given the lack of receiving depth Hooper could beat his season-high in opportunities.

Chigoziem Okonkwo $200 – Flex

Chigoziem Okwonkwo has the scout team narrative working in his favor as Willis draws the start. They connected for a touchdown in the preseason and had a few productive series together. If Tannehill starts Okonkwo is still in play for the same reasons as Hooper. There aren’t any receiving options and he’s known for his pass-catching ability.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Patrick Mahomes II $12,000 – Captain or Flex

Patrick Mahomes II has attempted 34 or more passes each game, regardless of game script. The Chiefs have the highest pass rate over expectation in the league. Even as 10.5-point favorites, Mahomes will be continuing to push the ball downfield. All three running backs are quality plays for different reasons, but I prefer looking to pair Mahomes with either two or three of his pass-catchers.

RUNNING BACK

Clyde Edwards-Helaire $7,000 – Flex

Clyde Edwards-Helaire has spent time as a top-12 back in fantasy this weekend but that wasn’t enough to keep him out of Andy Reid’s doghouse. Edwards-Helaire was announced as the backup to rookie Isiah Pacheco last week. Perhaps comically, neither Pacheco nor Edwards-Helaire came close to leading the team in snaps out of the backfield. That honor went to Jerrick McKinnon. We’ve got a mess on our hands, but Edwards-Helaire scored the only touchdown amongst running backs and received only one less opportunity than Pacheco. He’s in a nice “pay up to be contrarian” spot, but I would be surprised if at least one of his cohorts didn’t outscore him at much cheaper.

Jerick McKinnon $3,000 – Flex

Jerick McKinnon was the only back to see more than one target, but it was still only three. He rushed twice for 12 yards and caught two passes for 36 yards. At $3,000 we can live with 6.8 points, and that feels like the low end of McKinnon’s range of outcomes as he led the backfield in snaps at 44% and is the clear favorite for passing down work.

Isiah Pacheco $2,400 – Flex

Isiah Pacheco was surprisingly named the starter at the last minute, but I question the motive here. After all, Pacheco was still returning kicks which is not likely the duty of a top back if they were truly valued in this fashion. This appears to be more of an indictment on how the team feels about Edwards-Helaire’s performance and the announcement turned out to make little difference to the outcome. Pacheco played roughly the same number of snaps as Edwards-Helaire and handled eight carries for 43 yards. Any player receiving eight touches at $2,400 is a fantastic option, but he will be highly rostered.

RECEIVER

Travis Kelce $10,400 – Captain or Flex

It appears Mahomes was not lying when he said the Chiefs would be spreading the ball around more without Tyreek Hill. Travis Kelce is sitting at just a 22% target share, which is great for a tight end, but not quite as high as we would’ve expected. For reference, Smith-Schuster has the second-highest target share on the team at 18%. Regardless of opportunity share, Kelce is 10^th in PPR scoring among non-quarterbacks and is worth stacking with Mahomes while getting unique elsewhere.

JuJu Smith-Schuster $8,400 – Captain or Flex

JuJu Smith-Schuster is quietly coming off two straight games with over 100 yards and a touchdown. He’s been targeted exactly eight times in all but two games this season and has emerged as Mahomes’ most consistent wide receiver. Much of the fields’ focus is going to be on the questions surrounding Kadarius Toney’s elevated price tag paired with how he affects the workloads of Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. I’m expecting JuJu Smith-Schuster to get lost in the shuffle as the “boring fairly priced” option.

Kadarius Toney $6,800 – Flex

We still don’t have word on how many snaps Kadarius Toney can be expected to play, but with just slightly over a week to learn Andy Reid’s offense I find it hard to believe he will be heavily involved. There are layered issues here though. The first problem is that Toney does not need to be heavily involved to put up impressive numbers. We’ve seen on an incredibly small sample size that he may be one of the most electric players in the league.

The second issue is that the Chiefs already have that player in Mecole Hardman. After all, Hardman just scored three touchdowns on four receptions and two rushes. Regardless of the three-touchdown performance, the Chiefs have been frustrated with Hardman’s production dating back to last year as indicated by his ever-dwindling snap share. The signing of Toney may have just been a random offensive playmaker happening to be available, but considering it got to the point last year where Josh Gordon was out-snapping Hardman, I’m guessing Toney is a one-for-one replacement. If Toney is to take over for Hardman, we’re expecting to see roughly 63% of the snaps and about a 15% target share. In his first week, I consider Toney a high-risk, high-reward flex option, but this write-up is a good one to keep in the memory bank as the season progresses.

Mecole Hardman $5,600 – Flex

Mecole Hardman is coming fresh off his best performance at what may prove to be an awkward time. Toney fits the mold of what the Chiefs wanted Hardman to be. The Chiefs have been patient with Hardman, and he’s rewarded them on occasion, but he’s never been able to put it all together whether with drops or mental errors. The write-up for these two has been more nuanced than a typically slate breakdown, but that’s because we have a 20% snap share in the range of outcomes for Hardman if Toney somehow comes along quickly. I will make life easy by being underweight on both Hardman and Toney as Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a much better option at cost.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling $5,400 – Flex

Before the bye week, Marques Valdes-Scantling seemed to finally hit his stride catching three passes for 111 yards. As previously mentioned, it’s Hardman’s role that we must worry about with Toney. Smith-Schuster and Valdes-Scantling should take no hit to their snap shares. He’s been a tremendous boom-bust play at a low roster percentage for the past two years and this is another slate that sets up nicely for him.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Noah Gray $800 – Flex

Noah Gray is a legitimate part of the Kansas City offense and is consistently priced under $1,000. He's used in most goal-line packages and has been included in a few of their trick plays. He's always my favorite punt for the Chiefs.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, and it will be frustrating, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.