Sunday Showdown Week 8

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Green Bay Packers are heading to Buffalo to take on the Bills as 11-point underdogs. The total is set at 47. Optimizers are going to push for Packers 2-4 lineups due to all their value at wide receiver. Don’t fall for it. The Bills are expected to score 29 points this week, and it feels conservative. Josh Allen is leading the most productive offense in the league and has hit the 300-yard-passing bonus in four of six games. He missed the fifth bonus by three yards. He’s as close to a lock for Captain as we’ll ever see, which means we will need multiple Bills pass catchers in our lineups. As close to a lock as Allen is for Captain, Aaron Jones is that for the Flex. The Packers already had one of the worst receiving corps in the league and are now without two of their top three options. Jones is currently their best-receiving weapon. I would not fault anyone for locking Allen at Captain and Jones at flex before doing anything else on this slate.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Allen Lazard – Shoulder – Out

Christian Watson – Hamstring – Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Josh Allen
2. Stefon Diggs
3. Aaron Jones
4. Devin Singletary

GREEN BAY OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Aaron Rodgers $9,800 – Flex

Aaron Rodgers has resembled nothing of what we saw from the back-to-back MVP the past two seasons. I’m not naïve enough to think that losing Davante Adams is the only problem with this offense, but it certainly doesn’t help. His only consistent weapon has been Allen Lazard, who has barely played this year. Romeo Doubs has shown flashes but has let Rodgers down in multiple key moments. The only option Rodgers can trust in the passing game at this point is Aaron Jones. I like stacking Rodgers with Jones in the flex with four Bills but it removes the ability to play Stefon Diggs.

RUNNING BACK

Aaron Jones $10,400 – Captain or Flex

It’s fair to believe the Packers wanted more of a one-two punch from Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion, but that hasn’t been what they’ve had. Due to game script, Jones has been a true workhorse, playing on over 60% of the snaps in five games. He was targeted nine times in the loss to Washington last week, and we can expect more of the same this week with the Packers expected to trail most of the game.

A.J. Dillon $4,200 – Flex

Just as I was ready to quit AJ Dillion, Draftkings pulls me right back in with A.J. Dillon's reasonable salary. While being an 11-point underdog on the road is about as bad as it gets for a running back like Dillon, he’s still got some touchdown upside. Last week Dillon rushed just four times with no targets, but the week prior he carried the ball ten times with six targets in a 17-point loss. Dillon is not a priority, but in lineups that don’t fit Jones, Dillon is a strong leverage play at cost.

Receiver

Robert Tonyan Jr $6,200 – Flex

Robert Tonyan Jr has the safest floor of all the available options for Green Bay but he’s also the most expensive. He was targeted 12 times in a similar situation two weeks ago but is averaging just four targets in games otherwise. Isaiah McKenzie and Dawson Knox will be paired with Allen for the salary relief so Tonyan should go overlooked.

Romeo Doubs $4,000 – Flex

Romeo Doubs has been the top wide receiver for the Packers by default, but he hasn’t been productive with his opportunities. He’s played roughly 90% of the snaps in each game since week three. If Christian Watson sits again, Doubs will be the strongest value play at wide receiver, but he’ll also carry the highest roster percentage.

Sammy Watkins $2,600 – Flex

Sammy Watkins returned to action last week to the tune of two catches on four targets for 36 yards. That is the stat line we are most likely to expect, even in a losing effort, but that is plenty of production for a $2,600 play. Watkins is my favorite Packers play to add to heavy Bills lineups.

Christian Watson $1,400 – Flex

If Christian Watson is active, he is likely to be limited with a hamstring and has not shown the ability to make good on his opportunities either way. I’ll be avoiding Watson in favor of Watkins.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some paths to success at low ownership.

Samori Toure $600 – Flex

Samouri Toure was active for the first time last week and played 35% of the snaps. Rodgers mentioned him in the off-season as a guy he liked, and Toure flashed some ability in his pre-season action. He caught just one pass, but with Rodgers vying for a new opportunity at receiver we could see a bit more out of Toure.

BUFFALO OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Josh Allen $12,200 – Captain or Flex

In addition to the four 300-yard games Josh Allen has under his belt, he’s also got three games with at least 10 rushes. Allen consistently handles over 20% of the team’s rush attempts, which makes his $12,200 salary essentially a value. While typically an 11-point spread may lead teams to take the foot off the gas early, we need not worry as the Bills are first in the league in pass rate over expected. While I understand the desire to fade any Captain with a roster percentage over 30%, Allen is projected a whopping six points more than the next highest projection so we’re better off looking to be unique elsewhere in the lineup.

RUNNING BACK

Devin Singletary $7,200 – Captain or Flex

Devin Singletary nearly matched his season high in snap percentage last week with 86%. We had high expectations for rookie James Cook coming into the season, but those quickly diminished with Zack Moss playing 36% of the snaps. Then Moss’ expectations quickly diminished with Singletary taking over as the only show in town. Now we’re left with a Singletary in a workhorse role and the Bills are reportedly in trade conversations for every running back in the league. Singletary is in Captain consideration purely due to his game environment as an 11-point home favorite and leverage over Allen if Singletary falls in the endzone.

RECEIVER

Stefon Diggs $11,800 – Captain or Flex

Stefon Diggs is the second highest-priced player on the slate but for good reason. While Allen is projected six points higher than Diggs, Diggs is projected six points higher than the next highest projection. We could comfortably start every lineup with Allen, Diggs, and Jones, but we’d be running out of places to get contrarian. Diggs is the second-best option for Captain but I recommend omitting any other Bills receiving option as Allen most likely beats him for the top Captain if he connects with multiple receivers.

Gabe Davis $8,400 – Captain or Flex

Gabe Davis’ salary makes him a great pairing option for Allen in lineups without Diggs because his roster percentage shouldn’t get out of hand. He’s had games with three catches for 37 yards and games with three catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns. His range of outcomes makes him essentially an expensive Marquez Valdes-Scantling, which is music to our ears in Showdown.

Isaiah McKenzie $5,600 – Flex

Isaiah McKenzie has completely taken over the slot position for the Bills. He’s playing on 51% of the snaps and averaging five targets per game. He’s playing a similar role to what we’ve seen from Tyler Boyd on previous showdown slates. He can be expected to see roughly 11% of the team’s targets. In a game where we’re starving for more pass catching options to pair with Allen, McKenzie is the hero we need.

Dawson Knox $5,200 – Flex

Dawson Knox is slightly less expensive than McKenzie and receives similar opportunities. The only difference between the two is the Bill’s willingness to scheme McKenzie open and incorporate him in unique play designs. McKenzie is the preferred option for Bills stacks, but I’m not opposed to playing both so that you can pay up for players like Diggs, Rodgers, and Jones.

Khalil Shakir $3,800 – Flex

Khalil Shakir has had a couple of big plays in his only games over 35% of the snaps two weeks ago, but he seems to have settled back into an ancillary role. He’s worth considering as a “so bad he’s good” play in a game where we’d desperate to stack Allen, but he’s too expensive for his role.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Zack Moss 1,000 – Flex

Zack Moss played zero snaps last week but should settle back into about a 30% snap share with some touchdown equity. He should see around four carries which are plenty for his price if he can break off a chunk run.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, and it will be frustrating, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.

With so much attention being paid to the success of the Buffalo Bills' offense and the desire to stack Josh Allen, Tyler Bass could be underutilized in lineup construction. I like both kickers in this game and am fading the Bills' defense with their roster percentage likely to be high as 11-point favorites at home. After all, it’s still Aaron Rodgers.