Sunday Showdown Week 5

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Cincinnati Bengals are heading to Baltimore to take on the Ravens as 3.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 47.5. Both teams are top 10 in pass rate over expectation, but the Ravens are already thin at receiver and will be without Rashod Bateman. Conversely, J.K. Dobbins is another week removed from his knee injury after rushing in two touchdowns last week. The Ravens have been a pleasant surprise in the passing game, but this game shapes up for Baltimore to lean on the run game. Joe Burrow should have the league’s top receiver duo healthy once again this week and will be fully equipped to play keep up with Jackson. The way the pricing and game environment shapes up will lead us to Bengals-heavy builds.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Tee Higgins– Ankle – Questionable

Hayden Hurst – Groin – Questionable

Rashod Bateman– Foot – Out

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. JaMarr Chase
2. Lamar Jackson
3. Joe Burrow
4. Joe Mixon
5. Mark Andrews
6. Tee Higgins

CINCINNATI OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Joe Burrow $10,600 – Captain or Flex

Joe Burrow is moderately priced with a high likelihood of attempting an above-average amount of passes. In week 1 against a tough Steelers defense, he attempted 53 passes resulting in 338 yards and two touchdowns. His attempts that week are a bit skewed due to overtime but expect similar results this week with over 40 attempts. With so many strong receiving options for the Bengals and a lack thereof for the Ravens, it’s a great week to play Burrow at Captain then mix and match his pass catchers.

RUNNING BACK

Joe Mixon $8,800 – Captain or Flex

Joe Mixon is playing at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Last week he handled 83% of the snaps. Is workhorse role has been a pleasant surprise, but it is his passing game usage that has been truly exciting. He has averaged six targets a game. He’s added 116 yards and a touchdown as a receiver all while handling the second-most rushing attempts in the league. He’s a great play but will come with a high roster percentage. He can be played at Captain as a true workhorse but is more unique in the flex when treated as a pass catcher for Burrow.

Receiver

JaMarr Chase $11,000 – Captain or Flex

JaMarr Chase’s price is largely indicative of his ceiling. His median projection puts him firmly behind Mixon and Tee Higgins given their respective prices. From a point-per-dollar perspective, Chase is not a great option, but that should keep his roster percentage in check. Chase is risky at cost, but I chose to make him my top Captain as Mixon, Burrow, and Higgins should double his roster percentage, and none match his ceiling.

Tee Higgins $8,200 – Captain or Flex

DraftKings is doing us no favors by refusing to close the gap between Tee Higgins and Chase’s salary. Higgins is once again the best play of the slate, which will once again make him carry a huge roster percentage. Higgins is leading the team in receiving yards while tied with Chase in touchdowns and slightly behind in receptions. He is essentially the same play, although Chase is valued more across every variation of fantasy football. Given the Bengals heavy stacks, we want to lean into, Higgins is a strong play regardless of roster percentage.

Tyler Boyd $6,200 – Flex

Tyler Boyd has been largely forgotten on Showdown slates as Chase, Higgins, and Mixon demand so much attention. Boyd and Hurst offer great leverage at low cost and roster percentage each time the Bengals play in prime time. Boyd is averaging a 75% snap share, but his target share remains low. He’s been targeted five or more times in three of four games this season. He’s had one ceiling game in week three with 4 receptions for 105 yards and a touchdown. He sets up well for another this week making him a high-leverage pairing with Burrow.

Hayden Hurst $4,600 – Flex

Hayden Hurst did not receive the same pricing boost as Boyd since the last time the Bengals were on prime time, despite scoring a touchdown last week. Hurst is currently nursing an injury, but if he goes, he is another low-rostered receiving option to pair with Burrow. He splits snaps in half with Mitchell Wilcox but is targeted more often. Hurst has averaged 3.5 catches on the season and hit pay dirt once on his lowly target share. He’s the perfect close-your-eyes and cross-your-fingers play at the lowest roster percentage of any Bengals starter.

UNDER THE RADAR –

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Mitchell Wilcox $200 – Flex

If Hurst is unable to go, Mitchell Wilcox will be the primary beneficiary. He’s been targeted once each week with the expectation that would increase if he gained the starting role. Devin Asiasi has been limited all week, and Drew Sample is out for the season so Wilcox would play virtually every snap. Wilcox would be the strongest punt play on the slate if Hurst missed the game.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Lamar Jackson $12,200 – Captain or Flex

Lamar Jackson is going full 2019 scorched earth in pursuit of the highest quarterback contract in league history. Week four was tough for Baltimore’s offense, but on the season, Jackson has accounted for 13 total touchdowns. He is averaging just over 9 rushing attempts and 79 rushing yards. Jackson is difficult to stack heavily given Rashod Batman’s injury and the general lack of receiver depth, but he should be a lineup staple. Jackson’s price is far too cheap, and his rushing ability allows for him to be played without stacking him. Jackson has a legitimate double bonus upside at an affordable cost.

RUNNING BACK

J.K. Dobbins $7,000 – Flex

J.K. Dobbins’ snap share jumped from 43% to 50% in week four as he bounces back from injury. His running mate Justice Hill is expected to miss this game. Kenyan Drake will be elevated after being a healthy scratch last week. We can project Drake to take Hill’s 50% snap share, but Dobbins earned more snaps and should be given them. He rushed 13 times for 41 yards against a tough Bills front and caught four passes. Most importantly, he appears to be fully healthy following a gruesome knee injury last season. In a game we project to be more run-heavy than normal, Dobbins is a strong value given his cost and boosted snap share.

RECEIVER

Mark Andrews $9,600 – Captain or Flex

Mark Andrews has left his part-time role in the past and is playing on nearly every snap. He’s top ten in receptions and tied for second in touchdowns with three in four games. While $9,600 is hefty for a tight end, Mark Andrews has functioned more like a top wide receiver. The issue with his week five showdown status has nothing to do with him. Pairing Andrews with Jackson takes you firmly out of the range of a Burrow stack. There are very few salary relief options to make the build more palatable. Once you’ve committed to Andrews and Jackson, you’re better off going all in on Raven’s stack where the options are all inferior to their Bengals counterparts from a value perspective. The most reasonable way to approach this would be to play Andrews at Captain with Jackson, Dobbins, and Devin Durvenay.

Devin Duvernay $5,600 – Flex

Devin Duvernay’s luck feels like it must run out at some point, but perhaps not this week when he is Jackson’s top wide receiver. Duvernay is playing on 60% of the snaps and has been targeted just 13 times, but he’s scored three times on the year. His price will keep his roster percentage low as the field opts for the kickers and defenses in this range. Duvernay should see a small boost in snap share and receive the most targets among wide receivers. If choosing to stack the Raven’s passing game, Duvernay is the best option to make it all fit.

Demarcus Robinson $2,800 – Flex

The Ravens’ lack of depth at receiver can be considered a gift or a curse. We will be getting a starting wide receiver at $2,800 with deep ball ability and a low roster percentage. Robinson’s snap share will increase to roughly 65% for the first time this season. He has averaged just over two targets a game and has shown his ability in his time with the Chiefs to reach value on a single catch.

UNDER THE RADAR –

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Isaiah Likely $1,400 – Flex

With the lack of wide receiver depth, the Ravens will look to two tight end sets at one of the league’s highest rates. Isaiah Likely flashed NFL-caliber receiving ability in the preseason but has not yet hit his stride in the regular season. He has one game with four catches for 43 yards, and another game with four targets but no receptions. The opportunity is there, and it won’t take much for him to pay off his price. Likely is a safer option that Robinson for half the cost.

Tylan Wallace $200 – Flex

Tylan Wallace will be elevated into the rarely used wide receiver three role for the Ravens. He will see around 30% of the snaps which should put him in play for large field tournaments.