Sunday Showdown Week 2

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Chicago Bears are heading to Green Bay to take on the Packers as 10-point underdogs. The game total is set to 42. By today’s standards, 42 is low, but for this game, it may be generous. Aaron Rodgers struggled to connect with any of his pass-catching options, both new and old. The only bright spot for the Packers was A.J. Dillon, but fortunately, the opportunity was there for Aaron Jones to also thrive. On the Bears' side of the ball, we learned nothing in Week 1 as their first game was played in what looked to be a monsoon at times. Fields completed only eight passes, with two of them going for touchdowns. David Montgomery handled more than 66% of the backfield but gave way to Khalil Herbert in key situations. With hardly any options to feel good about, this game is going to focus even more than normal on projected roster percentage and unique salary allocation.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Velus Jones – Hamstring – Doubtful
• Allen Lazard – Ankle – Game time decision

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Aaron Jones
2. A.J. Dillon
3. Justin Fields
4. Aaron Rodgers
5. David Montgomery

PACKERS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Aaron Rodgers $10,600 – Captain or Flex

Yet another season Aaron Rodgers would like everyone to “relax” after a Week 1 letdown. The tune has changed a touch this year as even Rodgers seems to have no idea who he can trust to catch passes. The Packers had two rookie receivers play over 50% of the snaps in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. Doubs caught four passes while Watson caught two. Both failed to reach 40 yards, and Watson outright dropped what would’ve been a 50-yard touchdown. Rodgers remains in consideration due to the lack of viable options on this slate but pairing him is going to be the challenging part.

RUNNING BACK

Aaron Jones $12,200 – Captain or Flex

Aaron Jones is far too expensive given his Week 1 usage, but he was still given 61% of the snaps while sharing the field with A.J. Dillon 10% of the time. Bypassing Jones would be ideal on most slates, but there just aren’t enough options getting opportunity below him to be worth saving the salary. Jones should see roughly 10 opportunities and is still a focal point of the offense. Jones is projected for 17.7 points while Dillon is projected for 15.7 points. They are viable together.

A.J. Dillon $8,400 – Captain or Flex

A.J. Dillon made the most of his opportunities in an otherwise uninspiring performance for the Packers. He handled the goal line work and surprisingly out-targeted Jones 5 to 3. He rushed 10 times and was targeted 6 times while scoring the team’s only touchdown. The usage between the two primary Packers backs will likely vary all season but Dillon and Jones are the two best plays of the slate, even paired together.

Wide Receiver

Allen Lazard $9,400 - Flex

Allen Lazard is a game-time decision with an ankle injury but with the lack of production last week, he is worth discussing. $9,400 is quite expensive but given that Lazard is the only receiving on the depth chart with reasonable production with Rogers this decade, he is worth targeting in Rodgers stacks. Rodgers has drawn skepticism this offseason after referring to Lazard as his wide receiver one, but after Week 1 it is clear why that would be the case. Lazard would be a primary focus for Rodgers stacks if he is active.

Sammy Watkins $7,200 – Flex

Unfortunately, we did not get the annual Sammy Watkins blow-up game in the season opener. Watkins was targeted only 3 times in Week 1 resulting in just 18 yards. He is priced significantly higher than multiple better options with no real incentive to play him other than for leverage in large field tournaments.

Romeo Doubs $5,600 – Flex

Romeo Doubs was the most promising of the bunch which should come as no surprise to anyone who followed this off-season. He was targeted 5 times and received one carry. Both he and Watson are viable given their Week 1 performances and should have similar roster percentages to each other. If choosing only one, the slight lean would go to Watson given the negativity surrounding his Week 1 drop and the subsequent dip in roster percentage he may experience.

Randall Cobb $5,400 – Flex

Cobb was expected to be the glue that held the Packers’ receiving room together but even with Rodgers struggling, Cobb still managed only 3 targets. He caught 2 of them for 14 yards. On a team with such uninspiring options, I am choosing to look to the unknown upside in youth rather than the known commodities in the veterans.

Christian Watson $4,600 – Flex

Another one of the young players with unknown upside is Christian Watson. Watson was selected in the second round, two rounds earlier than Doubs, but was hampered by injury all preseason. In Watson’s absence, Doubs flourished. There is no way to know if Doubs would’ve received the same opportunity, and subsequent hype had Watson been healthy. We do know that Watson was a premium draft pick, and the team is going to want to use him as such. Watson was targeted 4 times and given one carry. The only thing anyone will remember about Watson’s NFL debut is the wide-open touchdown he dropped, and the resulting look Rodgers gave to the sideline as to say, “If that’s Devante Adams, that’s 6.” Watson is a strong bounce-back candidate in a weird price range which would allow his roster percentage to remain relatively low.

Robert Tonyan Jr $6,800 – Flex

Robert Tonyan Jr tied with Dillon for the team lead in targets, but his price makes him borderline unplayable. He was second in snaps amongst tight ends with 38%. As another example of DraftKings botching this slate’s pricing, Tonyan is an egregious $4,800 more than Cole Kmet, who we have projected for .1 points less than Tonyan. Doubs is projected for 1 point less at $1,200 cheaper and far more upside. Tonyan may lead the team in targets again, but his upside is not worth his price.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

No ugly NFC North Showdown slate would be complete without mentioning Mercedes Lewis. The ageless wonder led the tight end group snaps in Week 1 while receiving no targets. Lewis tends to always find a way to catch 2-3 passes on Showdown slates at minimum price, sometimes even falling into the endzone.