Sunday Showdown Week 17

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Pittsburgh Steelers are heading to Baltimore to take on the Ravens as 1.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 35. Lamar Jackson is set to miss at least one more game, which has resulted in one of the lowest game totals of the season. Over the last three games, Baltimore is last in the league in pass rate. Pittsburgh doesn’t pass much more often, as they’re bottom ten as well. Each team will be expected to lean heavily on their run game while looking to be efficient on low passing volume. The Ravens are trotting out the league’s worst receiving corps, by a wide margin, which makes all of their tight ends viable, especially if Nick Boyle misses due to illness. Both quarterbacks are still in captain consideration given how little they have to do in low-scoring games to make the optimal lineup.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Lamar Jackson – Knee–Out

Nick Boyle – Illness – Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Najee Harris
2. Dionte Johnson
3. Tyler Huntley
4. Kenny Pickett
5. Mark Andrews

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Kenny Pickett $9,200 – Captain or Flex

Pickett was inactive in the matchup against the Ravens two weeks ago. Mitchell Trubisky passed 30 times under similar circumstances. Pickett is averaging just over 33 pass attempts per game. Typically, we’re stacking the passing game of the team favored to win, but the Steelers have far more viable receiving options and are likely to pass more often than the Ravens. Pickett has no multi-touchdown games on the season which would typically keep him out of Captain consideration, but with such a low total he only needs one in addition to some rushing production.

RUNNING BACK

Najee Harris $10,600 – Captain or Flex

Harris is averaging about 70% of the snaps one season removed from nearly 100% involvement. He’s still averaging nearly 16 rushes per game and has been heavily involved on the goal line. His salary is a bit rich given his recent production so we’re likely to see a low roster percentage for Harris.

Jaylen Warren $3,200 – Flex

Warren is handling the remaining 30% of the snaps for the Steelers. He’s been targeted multiple times in seven games this year. He’s also received some rushing work over the last two weeks with 11 carries in Week 15 and 6 carries in Week 16. With the game environment we expect, Warren may be our best bet to get unique exposure to either team's rushing game.

Receiver

Dionte Johnson $8,600 – Captain or Flex

Regardless of the quarterback, Johnson has been averaging nearly nine targets per game. He’s a safe stacking option for Pickett but he hasn’t hit the 100-yard-bonus once this year. He also scored no touchdowns. He has an outside shot at the Captain spot if he catches 10 passes, but he likely needs a touchdown or at least the bonus.

George Pickens $8,400 – Flex

Pickens's involvement seemed to be rallying early in the season, but over the past five games, he’s averaged just over four targets. In Week 14 against the Ravens' secondary, he caught 3 passes for 78 yards. If he were cheaper, he’d be in Captain consideration due to his ceiling, but Johnson is the preferred option in this price range.

Pat Freiermuth $7,200 – Flex

Freiermuth has been targeted at least 8 times in 5 games thus far. In Week 14 he caught 3 passes and scored a touchdown. He played just over 50% of the snaps for 3 straight weeks before ramping back up to 81% last week. He should be back to a feature role and has a shot at double-digit targets in a low-scoring environment.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some paths to success at low ownership.

Steven Sims Jr $1,000 – Flex

The Steelers don’t have many ancillary options. Sims has been playing just over 50% of the snaps. He’s been targeted in all but three games. His price tag should leave him largely underutilized as most of the field will prefer to go with a minimum-priced punt.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Tyler Huntley $9,400 – Captain or Flex

Huntley has been struggling mightily as a passer. In Week 15 against the Steelers, he completed just eight passes. In the same game, he rushed nine times. He rushed 11 times last week. We’re in a unique situation where we are struggling to stack the favored offense due to quarterback play and talent level, but we still want to play said quarterback due to his rushing upside. If Huntley can account for multiple touchdowns, he’s got a great shot at being the slate’s optimal Captain.

RUNNING BACK

J.K. Dobbins $10,000 – Flex

Dobbins is averaging 13 carries on just over 40% of the snaps for the last 3 weeks. In his first two weeks back from injury, he tallied over 120 yards rushing. He’s got a high ceiling if he can score in addition to the 100-yard-bonus, but he’s too expensive to consider as Captain given his workload.

Gus Edwards $5,400 – Flex

Edward’s involvement has varied widely from week to week. Last week he played 40% of the snaps and just barely missed the 100-yard-bonus by one yard. The attempts are there for us to want to get exposure to this backfield, but neither back is a safe bet at cost. Edwards will have a lower roster percentage and has a shot at matching Dobbin’s opportunities.

RECEIVER

Mark Andrews $8,800 – Captain or Flex

Andrews has not had the same epic connection with Huntley this season that he did in the past. He’s averaging six targets over the last three games. He has not caught more than three passes since Week 13. He makes Captain consideration due to a lack of target competition, and one of the lowest salaries we’ve ever seen for him.

Demarcus Robinson $6,800 – Flex

Robinson has been the top option since Rashod Bateman lost due to injury. He’s had a respectable target share most weeks since taking over but was hardly involved last week. He’s far too expensive which will result in a low roster percentage, but he’s Huntley’s primary wide receiver and may be necessary if double-stacking the Ravens' passing game.

DeSean Jackson $3,400 – Flex

Jackson has been targeted at least twice in six straight games since joining the Ravens. He’s only produced a meaningful fantasy output once, in Week 12, where he caught 2 passes for 74 yards. He’s worth some exposure in large field tournaments, but he will need at least one vintage Jackson moment to make value at cost.

Sammy Watkins $2,200 – Flex

Watkins played 33% of the snaps in his first week back with the Ravens after a 13-week stint with the Packers. He caught one pass for 40 yards. His snap share should be slightly boosted due to his familiarity with the offense. He’s the preferred wide receiver stacking option for the Ravens to save salary.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Isaiah Likely $1,600 – Flex

Likely is typically playing under 30% of the snaps, but he is heavily involved whenever he’s on the field. He’s been targeted multiple times in all but one game since week eight. He’s the best cheap option for the Ravens.

Josh Oliver $400 – Flex

If Boyle is out, Oliver will see a boost in snap share.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point.

Both kickers and both defenses will be heavily rostered given the 35-point game total. Most of my lineups will feature one of the four, but I will be implementing a “max one” rule with that group. On some slates, we can get away with using the kicker or defense as our lowest-rostered player. When they’re all roughly 30%, we need to add in at least one more unique option.