Sunday Showdown Week 16

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are heading to Arizona to take on the Cardinals as 7.5-point favorites. The total is set at 40.5. The Cardinals already lost their franchise quarterback for the remainder of the season and are now once again without Colt McCoy. Trace McSorley is drawing the first start of his career. In Week 15 he threw 15 passes resulting in 7 completions and two interceptions. Arizona ranks sixth in pass rate over the last three weeks, but it’s safe to assume that with McSorely, and a banged-up receiver room, that number should drop dramatically. This leaves room for James Conner to flourish, even as a 7.5-point underdog. On the flip side, we understand as 7.5-point favorites, we’re looking to heavily stack the Buccaneers. While this build will be popular, there are plenty of viable options in Tampa Bay to help us remain unique.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Julio Jones – Knee – Questionable

Colt McCoy – Head – Out

Marquise Brown – Groin – Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Tom Brady
2. Chris Godwin
3. James Conner
4. DeAndre Hopkins
5. Mike Evans

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Tom Brady $10,400 – Captain or Flex

While maybe ineffective at times, the Buccaneers have the highest pass rate in the league this season. Over the last three games, they ranked second. Brady has passed at least 40 times in 11-of-14 starts thus far, which leaves the door open for a wide variety of stacking options. He also gets his running backs involved in the passing game, making both Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White viable. In lineups including Brady at Captain, we’re going to stack him with at least two receiving options, but feel comfortable going up to four.

RUNNING BACK

Leonard Fournette $7,800 – Flex

Fournette is in a nearly even split with Rachaad White but is getting slightly more usage as a receiver. Over the last three games, he’s been targeted 18 times. Given White’s involvement as a rusher, and his lower salary, Fournette should come with a discounted roster percentage.

Rachaad White $6,400 – Flex

Over the last three weeks, White leads the backfield in rushing and is just three targets behind Fournette. He’s playing just under 50% of the snaps. He’s also got the only touchdown by a running back over the last three weeks. He should be priced in the $8,000 range, especially due to the 7.5-point spread, so expect a high roster percentage.

Receiver

Chris Godwin $10,800 – Captain or Flex

Godwin is as consistent as it gets in terms of targets, but he has rarely landed as the optimal Captain and is always the highest-rostered receiver. This week he has some competition at the top from DeAndre Hopkins which makes him a bit more palatable of a play. He’s Brady’s strongest stacking option but will need added attention to result in unique Buccaneers stacks when including him.

Mike Evans $9,400 – Captain or Flex

Mike Evans is the anti-Godwin. There’s nothing safe about him. Over the past three weeks, he has 2 games with 9 targets and 1 game with 4. On the year he has seven games with at least nine targets and three games with four or fewer. It isn’t easy to project what we’ll get from Evans, but at least we know he will come with a reasonable roster percentage. Given his 100-yard and multiple touchdown upside, Evans is consistently one of my favorite receivers to stack with Brady.

Russell Gage $6,000 – Flex

Gage reached a season-high 12 targets last week while earning a 62% snap share without Julio Jones. He also caught two touchdowns. Jones is still dealing with a knee injury and is likely to be out once again. Unfortunately, Gage’s Week 15 was a bit too strong to allow him to go completely overlooked, but he’s still the best secondary option for Tampa Bay stacks.

Cade Otton $4,800 – Flex

Otton is the first Buccaneers receiver to offer a low roster percentage, but he is also the worst point-per-dollar play on their side of the ball. His targets have dropped over the last three weeks, seemingly due to added involvement from Cameron Brate who is finally playing at full health. Otton makes the player pool strictly as a contrarian option to pair with Brady.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some paths to success at low ownership.

Cameron Brate $3,200 – Flex

Brate has become the more consistent of the two Tampa Bay tight ends. He’s averaged nearly five targets over the last three games. They’ve only resulted in less than 25 yards per game. At $3,200 he’s a fair stacking option to leverage the kickers and defenses in his price range.

Scott Miller $200 – Flex

Miller gets the benefit of playing Jones’ role for another week. Unfortunately, that only means an 11% snap share as the Buccaneers simply employed two tight ends more often. He’s still a fair dart throw on a slate where we’re desperate for a unique pairing option from Tampa Bay.

ARIZONA OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Trace McSorley $8,800 – Flex

McSorley has been a promising pre-season DFS play in years past, but he’s never put it together in live action. He’s playing as a 7.5-point home underdog, so we’d expect passing to be up, but that may be more positive for the Tampa Bay defense than it is for his fantasy production. He’s as cheap as a starting quarterback will ever be and will likely carry a roster percentage lower than 30%. We’ve been burned by this type of player in the past, but I’m comfortable avoiding McSorley unless I’m rostering DeAndre Hopkins as Captain.

RUNNING BACK

James Conner $9,800 – Captain or Flex

Conner has been the engine that makes this offense move since returning from injury. His snap share has been north of 90% in 4 of his last 5 games. In addition to one of the league’s best rushing workloads, Conner has also managed to get involved in the passing game. He’s been targeted at least three times in all but one game. Usually, we could temper expectations for a 7.5-point underdog at running back, but Conner is the only chance the Cardinals have at being competitive in this game.

RECEIVER

DeAndre Hopkins $10,200 – Captain or Flex

Hopkins is no stranger to poor quarterback play. He thrives in it better than just about any other receiver in the league. Last week he received 11 targets. The week before, Colt McCoy, also received 11 targets. Marquise Brown was active in both contests, and it didn’t matter. Hopkins is the only other strong play for Arizona due to game script, but it requires relying on McSorely.

Marquise Brown $6,800 – Flex

Brown has yet to put together a promising performance since returning in week 12, but he’s been targeted exactly eight times a game with three different quarterbacks. His workload is safe, and we know from earlier in the season that he’s got a high ceiling. The main concern with Brown is that he’s dealing with a hamstring injury that makes him questionable to play. He’s a high-risk-low-floor play, but the ceiling makes him interesting at a low roster percentage.

Trey McBride $5,400 – Flex

McBride has picked up the pace a bit since the last time we saw him on a Showdown slate. He was abysmal in his first few starts in leu of Zach Ertz, but in the past two games, he’s been targeted five and six times. He’s similar to Brate in that nothing is exciting about clicking on him, but he will be involved and won’t be rostered much at all.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

A.J. Green $200 – Flex

Greg Dortch and Robbie Anderson are also active and can be considered, but Green is every bit as good of a play as either of them for minimum salary. He’s played nearly 60% of the snaps over the last two weeks and has multiple targets in all but one game on the year. Green is the preferred punt play over Miller.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point.

As always, if rostering five Buccaneers, strongly consider adding their defense and at least one of their running backs. Conversely, consider omitting Succop when rostering Brady at Captain. I prefer not to add the opposing kicker when I roster a team’s defense so I will create a rule that prohibits Matt Prater from being included with the Tampa Bay defense.