Sunday Showdown Week 10

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Los Angeles Chargers are heading to San Francisco to take on the 49ers as 7-point underdogs. The total is set at 45.5. We’ve got a matchup of two of the top running backs in the game. They’re both priced in a way that makes it difficult to viably jam them into the same lineup. Meanwhile, we’ve got Deebo Samuel at least $1,000 less than he should be. For the first time this year, I’m not considering either quarterback at Captain, as we’ve got so many viable skill position players at multiple price points. While Samuel stands out as the best value and the strongest Captain, we’ve got Brandon Aiyuk playing a sizable role for the Jimmy Garappolo lead 49ers with a salary close enough to Samuel to keep his roster percentage low. The Chargers are down bad at receiver as they’re set to miss both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams once again. Los Angeles’ offensive success is likely to go through Austin Ekeler, so we’ll look to lock him in and build the rest of the lineup around leverage over an equally highly rostered Christian McCaffrey.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Keenan Allen – Hamstring – Questionable
• Mike Williams – Ankle – Questionable
• Tre McKitty – Hamstring – Questionable
• Donald Parham – Concussion – Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Deebo Samuel
2. Austin Ekeler
3. Christian McCaffrey
4. Brandon Aiyuk
5. Josh Palmer

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Justin Herbert $10,600 – Flex

The Chargers have the fifth-highest pass rate of the season, but their offense is sputtering. It’s difficult enough to overcome the loss of a talented possession receiver like Keenan Allen, but when you lose Mike Williams as well, there’s no wonder Justin Herbert is struggling to hit his ceiling recently. Herbert has hit the bonus twice this season and has been within 10 yards twice more. There’s no doubt he can defy the odds and carry an offense featuring Josh Palmer and DeAndre Carter at receiver, but if we’ve got to stack a team, we’re going with the 7-point favorites at home. With Ekeler and McCaffrey in the same range as Herbert and Samuel at nearly $2,000 less, we should get Herbert at his lowest roster percentage of the year. He can be paired with Palmer or Carter in the flex while filling the rest of the lineup with 49ers.

RUNNING BACK

Austin Ekeler $11,200 – Captain or Flex

Austin Ekeler has been doing most of his damage in the passing game of late. He’s tallied less than 50 yards rushing per game since week six, but he’s averaging 12 targets during that span. Over the last two weeks, he’s had a rushing and receiving touchdown in each game. The Chargers are relying heavily on Ekeler to carry their offense while they battle their issues with receiver depth. We can capture much of the Chargers' offensive success by playing Ekeler while we focus on stacking the 49ers.

Sony Michel $4,400 – Flex

While Ekeler is carrying the Chargers' offense, he’s only playing around 70% of the snaps. That has left room for Sony Michel and Isiah Spiller to get involved. Unfortunately, neither player has done much to capitalize on their opportunity. Michel is third in snap share and can be omitted from the player pool.

Isaiah Spiller $3,000 – Flex

Isaiah Spiller has been healthy and active just twice this season. Last week he played 19% of the snaps and carried the ball seven times. If any backup has a shot of vulturing a score from Ekeler, it is likely to be Spiller.

Receiver

Josh Palmer $7,800 – Flex

Even with Keenan Allen injured most of the year, it has taken Josh Palmer quite some time to earn a featured role in the offense. In the past two weeks, he’s been targeted at least 10 times. Last week he managed 108 yards on eight receptions. While the offense is most likely to run through Ekeler, Palmer should see a similar target share in a come-from-behind effort at $3,000 less.

Gerald Everett $6,200 – Flex

Gerald Everett is looking at another week with a target share over 15% as the Chargers are not only without their top two wide receivers but a couple of their tight ends as well. Everett played a season-high 68% of the snaps last week and was targeted eight times. At his price between Carter and Palmer, Everett is one of the better plays of the slate.

DeAndre Carter $5,400 – Flex

DeAndre Carter is playing over 80% of the snaps, but he’s been the odd man out in terms of target share. Even as the fourth option, Carter is still averaging six targets per game over the last three games. He’s plenty viable at his salary and should carry the lowest roster percentage of the bunch.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some paths to success at low ownership.

Michael Bandy $2,400 – Flex

With the top two receivers down for the Chargers, our pre-season hero Michael Bandy has been called to action. Insanely enough, he’s been targeted 14 times over the past two games, which puts him slightly ahead of Carter during that span. We’re getting into a very small sample size there, but those are the only two games with both Allen and Williams inactive. Bandy is the best value of all Chargers receivers, but expect his roster percentage to reflect that.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Jimmy Garoppolo $9,800 – Flex

Jimmy Garoppolo has been a facilitator for the 49ers and will be a facilitator for our Showdown lineups. He has not consistently demonstrated the ceiling required to land in the Captain spot, but he’s a great pairing with all his primary receivers. Garappolo will be a staple of our lineups in the flex with his top receivers at Captain.

RUNNING BACK

Christian McCaffrey 11,600 – Captain or Flex

Christian McCaffrey did not miss a beat in his first game as the full-time starter for the 49ers. He accounted for three touchdowns, one as a passer, one as a rusher, and one as a receiver. He handled 18 carries and came up just short of the 100-yard bonus. This week’s game script is expected to be like last week’s win over the Rams, so we should expect a similar volume for McCaffrey. He’s the second-best projection of the slate, but he’s difficult to fit into a deep 49ers stack without omitting two of Samuel, Ekeler, and Garapollo.

RECEIVER

Deebo Samuel $8,800 – Captain or Flex

Deebo Samuel’s salary is largely reactionary to McCaffrey’s first game in a full-time role. While McCaffrey made history, Samuel was targeted seven times for five catches and 42 yards. He handled just one rushing attempt for the first time this year. Understandably, the 49ers would want to heavily feature McCaffrey in his first game back, but I have a hard time believing his success will continue to negatively correlate with their newly signed star receiver in Samuel. Samuel is the only skill position player whose ceiling rivals that of Ekeler or McCaffrey, and he's cheap enough to pair with at least one of them.

Brandon Aiyuk $8,200 – Captain or Flex

Brandon Aiyuk is our dark horse at Captain. In weeks six and seven he was targeted 11 times. He scored two touchdowns in one of the games but failed to hit his ceiling in the yardage category. We’ve seen him have monstrous games in the past, but he’s not quite gotten there this year. Samuel, McCaffrey, and Ekeler are going to be the most popular options, especially since they can fit into lineups together. Aiyuk is a similar play to Drake London on Thursday night in that he will go overlooked due to the better projections just above and just below him.

George Kittle $7,400 – Flex

George Kittle’s fantasy season has been saved by touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, but he’s been disappointing relative to expectations. Even in games where he’s been targeted at least nine times, he’s failed to hit the 100-yard bonus. He’s still playing nearly 100% of the snaps each week and is moderately involved in the offense, but Aiyuk and Palmer are better options in his price range.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Ray-Ray McCloud $1,200 – Flex

Both Ray-Ray McCloud and Jauan Jennings are fantastic punt options, especially when we’re looking to jam in as many of the top options as possible. McCloud had four catches for 65 yards and a touchdown in week seven. It’s worth noting that some of his work came with the backups, but the long touchdown was near the start of the game. McCloud was rewarded with a 57% snap share the following week.

Jauan Jennings $600 – Flex

Jauan Jennings has been splitting the third wide receiver duties with McCloud all season, but he is the more consistent target earner. Jennings has a legitimate shot at four targets every week which far surpasses our expectations for punt plays under $1,000.

Elijah Mitchell $200 – Flex

Elijah Mitchell returned from IR this week and is expected to be a full participant. Kyle Shanahan claims he won’t be limited, which I find hard to believe. Either way, McCaffrey has a stranglehold on the snap share. DraftKings makes Mitchell plenty viable as he’s the stone minimum and probably gets around five carries to get his feet under him.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, and it will be frustrating, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.

The underdog kicker has reigned supreme this season. Kickers are falling into the winning lineups at an alarming rate, and there doesn't seem to be much correlation between the favorites and underdogs. For some reason, the field has decided the favorite kicker is worthy of a roster percentage near 40% while the underdog kickers consistently hover around 20%. Take the discount and give a slight bump to the underdog kicker in hopes that the trend continues.